JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/17/18

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/17/18

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Jeff Sullivan

9:28

Eduardo Escobar feels like someone who won't get as much as he deserves

And, uhhhh

9:29

Someone will probably find a good non-SP role for Jordan Lyles

9:30

And then god knows what'll happen with the reliever market

We'll have a better idea when the offseason is actually underway, but right now I don't see much in the way of hidden gems. As such, keep an eye on players who might be coming over from Japan or Korea

Mike Rizzo

9:30

Can I sell all the pending free agents yet? We tried, but ...

Jeff Sullivan

9:30

Doesn't seem like it's your call to make

Mattyb

9:31

How hard does Washington try to retain Harper in the off-season? Will they feel pretty set with Soto/Robles/Eaton/Taylor as their outfield group moving forward?

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

They'll stay in it until the end, if only because of the Boras/owner relationship, but I imagine the Nationals know now that Harper is going somewhere else

9:32

The emergence of Soto has made that reality a lot easier to digest

Parts + Gleyber

9:35

What's happened to Gleyber Torres? Is he still injured? Did he get figured out? Any idea how long the hump will last?

Jeff Sullivan

9:36

I was looking at this briefly yesterday and I couldn't identify any particular red flags

9:37

He's not getting pitched that differently, relative to before. The quality of his contact has gone down. That suggests this could be a timing thing, given the DL stint. Alternatively or additionally, it's not uncommon for a young player to slump around this point in Torres' career, where he's made his first impression and opponents are beginning to adjust

9:38

Remember, Rhys Hoskins had a wRC+ of 50 in May

9:39

Torres is a good offensive player, but he's not an elite offensive player. He'll work out of this, because he's good enough to do that, but it could be another few weeks

Dave

9:40

Who is your favorite to come out of the NL at this point?

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

Honestly, still the Dodgers. They don't have the easiest road to make the playoffs, but I think they have the strongest team, assuming Jansen can make his return

David

9:41

Most difficult to predict: the AL MVP winner, the NL ROY winner, or the NL West division winner?

Jeff Sullivan

9:42

Let's see. There are like six decent AL MVP candidates, three or four decent NL ROY candidates, and three decent NL West candidates

Therefore, most difficult to predict the AL MVP

Sir Mookleton McBetts III

9:43

Rhys Hoskins is really good at hitting and really bad at playing the outfield. Carlos Santana is really bad at playing first base and extremely average at hitting. What can the Philies do, or is it just shrug emoji?

Jeff Sullivan

9:43

I don't think Santana is all that bad in the field

9:44

Hoskins is

9:45

But obviously, Hoskins is survivable-bad. Moving forward, maybe this starts to look like Hoskins moving to 1B in the later innings, with a defensive replacement entering in left

The Phillies pounced on Santana because they just didn't think they could pass up the FA value, even despite Hoskins' presence. The Phillies didn't understand at that point that Santana wasn't a real value at all, given what happened to the rest of the FA market

9:46

They might opt to ship Santana away, maybe packaged with a prospect. I do not think that would be a necessity, but it's one available path

squeeze bunt

9:47

If the Padres addes de Grom and Thor would they make the playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan

9:47

9:48

As is, the Padres project as something like a 71-win team. Add two great starters and they'd end up somewhere around .500

Now, of course, the Padres should be on an upward trajectory, and they should get into contention soon, but right now they remain too bad

9:49

(I should say, they project as something like a 71-win team over a full season, if we were to start right now from scratch)

Failson

9:49

Phillies v Braves down the stretch... who's winning the division?

Jeff Sullivan

9:49

Braves

Jake

9:50

Literally everyone on the Rays’ roster not named Kevin Kiermaier is not under contract for next season. Everyone else is either eligible for free agency, eligible for arbitration, or pre-arb. Their payroll for next season right now is like $10 million — $8.167 M for Kiermaier and $2 M they’re retaining on Longoria. Though they sold at the deadline, the players they got back suggest they think they have a shot to contend as soon as next year, not to mention the Pham deal. They’ve gotta spend some money this offseason, right? Jokes about them saving up for a run at Harper or Machado aside, with *that* little money on the books for next season right now, and them seeming to think they have a window opening up, maybe they could be in on the kind of free agent we wouldn’t usually expect them to be in on. At the very least, they should explore long-term contracts with their young studs like Snell, Bauers, Adames and Robertson

Jeff Sullivan

9:51

Something that's important to remember for a team like the Rays: free-agent prices don't mean the same thing to everyone. Even if, say, Manny Machado is a $30m/year player, $30m to the Red Sox means less than $30m to the Rays. With the Rays, that's like 30-40% of their would-be payroll

9:52

This is why the Rays are unlikely to ever get involved for a big-time free agent. They'll be active in the FA market, but more looking for one- or two-year players. Those contracts, they can deal with and work around

9:53

I would expect them to try to sign a lot of their core. Those young-player contract extensions are what allow the Rays to keep pieces around for longer than they would otherwise

Mattyb

9:54

Is Wade LeBlanc's performance a fluke and will he fall back down to earth next year or is his resurgence for real?

Jeff Sullivan

9:54

I think he's for real as a roughly league-average starter who never gets to 100 pitches

9:55

He's not a workhorse, but he's okay pretty much across the board

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