Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/19/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
This has been awfully inconsiderate of me
Bork
9:12
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
Hello friend
Rick Roll
9:12
The rick roll has not started yet
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
nor shall it ever
BJOGC
9:13
So, draft picks are always prone to hindsight but I definitely remember a lot of first guessing the Astros picking Mark Appel over Kris Bryant. That is going to go down as a Justin Verlander/Matt Bush level gaffe
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Matt Bush has a sub-3 ERA!
9:14
I can't imagine anything is going to top the Mike Trout draft any time soon but, yeah, to whatever extent it's fair to second-guess these things, that decision looks awful. Bryant is one of the five or ten best players in the game. Appel is...I don't even know what he's doing
9:15
The easy takeaway is, when conflicted, take the position player! It's not actually that easy in real life, but never believe in anything when scouts talk about a pitcher being "safe". They aren't safe
Rick Roll
9:15
Why might statcast disagree with hittrackeronline.com?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Statcast is based on actual observed information. Hit Tracker calculates its own estimates based on hang time and batted-ball destination
Hit Tracker is great, but now that we have Statcast it is of slightly more limited utility
Dustin
9:17
When we talk about how certain teams 'don't have the prospects' to get a player like Mike Trout, what are we really talking about? For a team with a really thin farm system, if they went to the Angels and said 'take literally everyone you want out of our system. Merge the best of our system with the best of your system and return everyone left back to us, but we get Mike Trout'... Is that really an offer the Angels would turn down, even if it was one of the worst farm systems in baseball? Like, if the Orioles offered this to the Angels, wouldn't this be an interesting proposition?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Prospect quantity is only so valuable. Sure, any number of perceived non-prospects could develop into something useful, but you'd have to be able to identify those guys ahead of time and that's not easy. If it were, they'd be prospects! Real prospect value is mostly tied up in the guys on lists. That value grows exponentially as players are ranked higher and higher. If you don't have high-ranking players, then you just won't be able to interest another team
Bork
9:19
Is the Brewers' rebuild quietly going a little faster than expected, like if you squint read hard and imagine Arcia, Villar, Santana, and Braun having good seasons, could they be .500 next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
You have to really squint. And you have to look at this year's numbers and subtract, like, Lucroy and Jeffress and so on. This is not to say they aren't doing a good job. I like their rebuild a lot, and they've done well with pretty much all of their moves. But it's still a painfully slow process. I'd think .500 in two years, at least
9:21
And some of the premium players on the farm are relatively high-risk. They could take a few years to get established, if they ever do
While I'm somewhat on the subject I will note that I've become unusually interested in Keon Broxton. He hits the ball really really hard
(when he hits the ball)
Erik
9:21
What contenders are best built for the unique elements of playoff baseball? Which contenders have a roster more suited for regular season ball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I like the Giants' ability to make contact. I like the depth of the Rangers' bullpen. The Cubs are great at everything. Now that the Nationals have Melancon they're in excellent shape. The Red Sox also don't strike out much and if they get Kimbrel going again, they look good, because they wouldn't have to worry about the back of the starting rotatoin
Eric
9:23
Brad Miller has 25 home runs. What is happening?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
He's a good hitter. He's always had the tools to be a good hitter. Anyone who's ever worked with him has expressed confidence that he'd become a good hitter eventually.
It's a damn good thing he's doing this, too, because his defense is unreliable
Rick Roll
9:24
Between the Tigers and Orioles, you think this team will make the playoffs (answer in the form of a question)
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
I think the Orioles sneak in
Da Bum
9:25
Has any team had so much young starters do well upon promotion but get hurt as the Mets have? Early 2000s Cubs come to mind but even they weren't at this level of snake bitten. Furthermore, if you're the Mets what do you do from here?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
I'll say this for the Mets -- while Harvey is out, and while Matz and Syndergaard are dealing with their own issues, both Matz and Syndergaard have still been able to take regular turns. And all things considered, the numbers show they've been good.
9:28
So the pitching injuries haven't been the absolutely crippling ones. Now, if I'm the Mets, I'm just looking to regroup. It's not like this version of the roster is toast. Yeah, 2016 probably won't work out, but you still have all the arms for next season
9:29
deGrom is there. Matz could and should be healthy again. Syndergaard could and should be healthy again. Harvey should return at some point, if not in the spring. Wheeler could be back as well. There's your five. It's all still plenty exciting
Travis
9:30
Is Freeman's power surge real? Can an argument be made that he's a top 3 1B in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
He's hitting fly balls a little harder. He's also hitting more of them, with reduced contact. He's made the fairly typical exchange. His actual wRC+ is right in line with where we'd expect it to be so it's not like Freeman has taken this massive step forward. He's just changed who he is a little bit. He remains a terrific everyday 1B
carrotjuice
9:31
Do you think rSB should be part of pitcher WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Hadn't actually thought about it before. Now that I do, I lean toward yes.
9:32
I understand why it wouldn't be included, but since the running game is mostly about the pitcher, and not the catcher, it wouldn't hurt to fold it in
Potus Redding
9:32
AL EAST x 3 in playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Looking like it
Bork
9:32
What's your best guess for the solution for Syndergaard? Work on his delivery in the offseason? Or does he just need a better move to 1st?
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