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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/25/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:17
The ball is seemingly coming out of his hand fine. So it's probably just a mechanical thing, but the timing is bad. Trading is hard
Matt
10:18
Can we take a moment to draw attention to Gio Gonzalez's excellent season? He is second in the N.L. in innings, third in ERA, and ninth in strikeouts. I know luck has played a big role in his ERA, but he feels like an overlooked part of the Nats season.
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
I love this one!
Compared to last year, his xFIP- has gotten worse by six points. His FIP- has gotten better by four points. His ERA- has gotten better by 54 points.
He's cut his 109 ERA- from last year literally in half
10:20
It's random and stupid and fluky and meaningless, but what an amazing thing to have happen
Colin
10:21
I understand that Mike Trout is the best baseball player in the world, but do you think due to a combination of two factors, 1) WAR being a stat that attempts to take into account all aspects of a players game and 2) most people lacking the time or willpower to understand the minutiae of how the stat is calculated, Trout has become overrated by people interested in advanced analytics? I mean, I don't think anyone would dispute he's the best player in MLB, but is he maybe not quite as far ahead as he seems when you only look at WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
No, he is extremely far ahead
10:22
Mike Trout is probably still underrated
Over the past three calendar years, he's been 4.4 WAR better than the next-best position player
10:23
That's a win and a half a year!
I think that Trout's skills are generally fairly understood. I think his consistency is what's underrated. He hasn't had one great year, or two great years. He's had six great years in a row. Six straight years of being possibly or probably the single best player in the world
NtFlxAndRichHill
10:24
For hitters with good raw power like Harper, Votto, Stanton...though we could probably separate them into three different tiers of raw power...isn't there an incentive to swing, I don't know, less hard right now? Obviously, all of these guys have cut into their K rates, but shouldn't high raw power guys take heed of this notion? Easier said than done, to change who you are as a professional hitter, but..okay - crystallized: the top ISO performers - have they seen a decrease in there K rate compared to the league?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I don't think it's that easy to "swing weaker"
10:25
I mean, you swing how you swing, and if you try to slow down, you're likely to get in some trouble
But then, Votto chokes up a whole bunch.
10:26
And Stanton has trimmed his strikeout rate by six points. It is theoretically possible to trade some amount of power for contact, and for a guy like Stanton, in this era it does appear to make sense
Now, given some of Stanton's recent exit velocities, I'm not convinced he's actually taking anything off of his swing. He might have very simply gotten better at hitting
Mac
10:26
Can you write an article on whether or not there is a precedent for a guy making up a 30 career WAR deficit on someone younger than him, as Beltre might do to Pujols?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I haven't completely wrapped my head around this idea yet but there's no shortage of fun ways to explore Beltre's unbelievable post-30 career
Gurp!
10:27
Who wins AL MVP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Probably Altuve
Mr. Optimism
10:27
Which team has the bleakest future at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
For me, Reds
Philbert
10:28
Of everyone with at least 50 PA at A+ in their age-18 season between 2006 and 2016, the best wRC+ is 117. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently at 174 in 173 plate appearances.
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
A teenager with power, and more walks than strikeouts. He's an absurdity
GraphsFan
10:29
Are there projections that you have a ever so slight bias to 'believe in more'? Or of the predominant projection systems do you take them all and mishmash them together?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Our depth charts projections slam ZiPS and Steamer together 50/50. I think I trust ZiPS just the tiniest bit more on pitchers, but I'm mostly content to use DC
The Dude
10:30
So Gary Sanchez's punishment should be that 3 Tigers players get to cheap shot him right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I think he should stand facing a wall, and a designated Tigers player should be able to throw one baseball at him from 30 feet away, making sure not to aim for the head. Anywhere else is fair game
So baseball players want to settle their disputes with beanballs? Make them settle all their disputes with beanballs.
Mike
10:32
Adrian Beltre is now sneakily having an identical season to last year's, only in half the games. He is...good.
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I'm mostly convinced he could play another 10 years
Mac
10:32
I just can't believe the brawl wasn't provoked by the 98 mile per hour fastball that hit somebody in the head
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Sometimes it probably sucks to be Dellin Betances
JD15
10:34
Who is the most exciting player in baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
When he's healthy it's probably Harper
Sleepy
10:34
Why does anyone think Yadier Molina has a shot at the HOF?  He's been worth 36-ish WAR in 6,600-ish PA.  That's, like, Jayson Werth/Ryan Zimmerman territory.  Am I missing something obvious?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
People assume he's going to get tons and tons of credit for his intangibles. Credit for the hidden catching stuff we can measure, and credit for the hidden catching stuff we can't. It's non-falsifiable, but the narrative exists that Molina is kind of the MLB leader in intangible value
Joey
10:35
What do you think Betances's suspension could look like?
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