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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/31/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I don't see much reason to deviate from my prior projection of a 130 wRC+. His strikeouts are beginning to climb, but at least the power is still there. Lately he's been going all Joey Gallo
Big Doof Energy
9:55
Do the Brewers get a pitcher today?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
They'll try. Probably not anyone real good
Guest
9:56
If an eccentric billionaire offered to support the podcast on patreon for $1 million, but set conditions that a) he had to appear as a guest for 10 minutes each epsiode; b) he gets an invite to your wedding; or c) he gets an email answered every episode, which of those would you agree to?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
All three if we could triple the support
9:57
But the easiest one is the wedding. The hell do I care who shows up to my wedding?
9:58
One way or another, after ten minutes, I'll be married
Sir Edmund Hillary
9:58
Which would you prefer: (A) Driving to 30 different cities to watch MLB games within a 36-day window? (B) Or, say, climbing 7 summits within 7 days?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Depends on the summits -- I am only so physically capable -- but after the fact, I'd feel better about the second one
9:59
Eventually, with each, I'd start to dread the next day, but at least the second one is over in a fraction of the time
Dustin
10:00
Surprised McCutchen made it all the way to the Yankees in the waiver process?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Less surprised than I was that Murphy made it all the way to the Cubs
10:01
Good NL teams don't really need McCutchen. Except, I guess, the Rockies have that LF situation going on, but whatever
They've settled on literally Matt Holliday
Guest
10:02
Is the skepticism of defensive metrics derived from their inability to reflect true talent (and thus be predictive of the future)? Or is it that they are poor at reflective past performance as well? (Is it essentially the ERA vs FIP argument or is there more to it than that)
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
For one thing, we can't really *prove* defense the way we can prove offense. The numbers are therefore always kind of theoretical. For another thing, there are fewer defensive opportunities than offensive opportunities, so numbers take longer to stabilize. And then, especially for infielders, there's the issue of all the shifting -- DRS and UZR don't really know what to do about that
Not so much of an issue for outfielders. And, with outfielders, we also have Statcast numbers that we don't yet have for their infield peers
Stevil
10:06
Hey Jeff, not to get too far ahead, but would an off-season swap of Greinke and Lamb for Leake and Seager make some sense? The salaries offset almost perfectly in 2019. The dough from St. Louis would have to be passed along, but in a nutshell, it would give Seattle an upgrade for the short-term and Arizona more breathing room for extensions for Pollock, Corbin, and Goldy.
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Don't know why the Diamondbacks would be too interested in that. Greinke is better than Leake, and Lamb is, at the very least, not worse than Seager
10:08
They'd also be conscious of selling Lamb low, when he's coming off an injury that killed his numbers. Seager is healthy and bad
10:09
Greinke and Marte are the only long-term contracts Arizona has on the books. They have flexibility
Josh Nelson
10:09
Do you think the White Sox call up Eloy Jimenez in September?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Nope, for the same reason we presumably won't see Guerrero. Teams don't care about this bad PR, because it blows over
10:11
Jimenez has a .973 OPS. Last year, Ronald Acuna tore his way through A+, AA, and AAA, and he played his last game on September 4
10:12
(he went 2-for-4 with a double and a home run)
Acuna was obviously ready, just as Jimenez is obviously ready, and just as Guerrero is obviously ready. But because there's that existing precedent, the Sox and Jays can say "look, it's not just us, the precedent has been established"
10:13
Something else will need to change before the team behavior changes. You can't just rely on the business leaders to change on their own
Angels fan
10:14
Does Cozart for Cobb make sense for both teams?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Don't think the Angels would care to do that
Cobb isn't particularly good, and he's more expensive
Llewelyn
10:16
Is the NL MVP most likely to go to a pitcher? Its clear that Max, Nola, and DeGrom have been the three best players in the NL but I still think voters will want to reward a position player on a playoff team.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I agree with you. By our WAR, the NL is led by four starting pitchers, but I can't see any of them winning
10:17
*Maybe* Nola, if the Phillies squeak through. But it's so much easier to see them giving it to someone like Carpenter
The pitchers-have-their-own-award argument is so widespread
darrenasu
10:18
Fun thought exercise: how valuable would a batter that homered precisely every 10 at bats be? The other 9 AB's would end in strike-outs. I assume it would be the most helpful pinch-hitter in history. Just kill those 9 AB's in a couple of games as a starter and then have that guaranteed HR on the bench as you watch games for high leverage. Any way this is NOT rosterable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Rosterable in theory, but unrosterable since no one could ever be sufficiently convinced that this is an actual, real-life trait the player possesses
10:19
I don't care if it kept happening for a dozen freaking years. Team executives would still be like "there's no way this is real"
Andy
10:19
Shildt.  Weird to announce the hiring now, right?  Regardless of whether or not he's the right choice.  Why now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Sounds like the Cardinals have been grooming him for a while, and teams don't like to spend very long playing with lame-duck managers. If this was inevitable, it doesn't really matter when the announcement was made
Zonk
10:20
Is there suddenly rays of hope for the White Sox?  Rodon, Kopech, and Giolito have the makings of a good rotation, and Eloy is lurking in AAA.
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