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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/16/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I'm going to guess this is more a case of just a few people saying no, and generating headlines. The Twins are going to fill their jobs and they will presumably fill them with quality candidates. It's mostly a desirable spot to work -- low expectations, great ballpark, loyal fan base. There are some issues people will have about working with ownership, and that might make it a little similar to when the Orioles had trouble finding a GM, but I can't imagine ownership is *that* off-putting
9:24
If you're a potential GM, you come in and figure you'll inherit an improving Sano, Buxton, and Berrios. There are worse places to start
Guest
9:24
Is there a difference in run value for a caught stealing at second and a caught stealing at third? If there is a difference, what is it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:24
The exact difference depends on the specific situations, but I'd assume getting caught stealing third is more costly, since you're already in scoring position at second, and the relative advantage of moving up 90 feet is fairly slim
9:25
Like, if you're someone with enough wheels to try to steal third, you're probably fast enough to score from second on most singles. So you'd better be sure
Fire Kevin Cash
9:26
Thoughts on Corey Dickerson's adjustments after a strong second-half?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
To be honest, he still feels like Corey Dickerson to me
9:27
And I do like him overall as a hitter, but I don't think he's meaningfully different
9:28
He has been better at handling sliders, so perhaps he's not quite so one-pitch minded. That was going to have to happen at some point
Mitch
9:28
How much baseball have you and Dave talked about on your trip? Or is that considered "work" and off-limits?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Maybe 30% of what we've talked about? Possibly more if you count just talking about FanGraphs as a business
Erik
9:29
Have the Rockies been particularly poor at building to the unique elements of playing baseball in Coors, or is having such a unique field automatically a disadvantage? I would think that it would be a net positive, since you can build a roster particularly catered to your own weird park.
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
I think the numbers show that the Rockies have had an enormous home-field advantage over their history. The problem is that their hitters then have subsequently struggled to hit on the road, presumably due to how pitches move differently, and I don't know what the Rockies are supposed to do about that
9:30
I really don't. The environment is the environment. Short of constructing a pressurized dome, it's an almost unsolvable problem
Doug
9:31
Ryon Healy hit ball far. That's it.
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Pretty fun pop-up prospect. He's got his vulnerabilities but the A's badly need more players like this
even year
9:32
do you agree that if any team was to shock the cubs early it would be the giants? Even though they have been terrible lately they somehow always get it done in october, i still don't know how they beat the phillies in 2010 and that compares well to the cubs this year
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
It's not hard to see how the Cubs could lose in the playoffs. Like, put them up against the Dodgers. Say, there's Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill a bunch of times!
9:33
Come playoff time, all the opponents are going to be good. So even in the best cases, the Cubs will be only slightly favored. Playoff upsets aren't that upsetty, numbers-wise
Stone
9:33
Cashner at philly or Gibson at mets on Sunday for a stream? I need QS and K....era and whip don't matter
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Sounds like you're shit out of luck
Capn Canuck
9:34
Is Dave a super safe driver because he never blinks?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
He's a relatively unsafe driver because the dog keeps waking him up ass-early in the morning
Undecided
9:35
BEST CASE scenario comp for Keon Broxton: Eric Davis?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
The best case for almost anyone is always a Hall-of-Famer, but Davis, indeed, would be a flattering comp. More recently, you could point to someone like Mike Cameron. Not that I think Broxton quite has that level of skill in the field, but the profiles are similar, and Cameron was forever underrated
Bump Bailey
9:37
I really like Aledmys Diaz's bat-to-ball skills. His BABIP is solid, can he continue to put up these types of numbers? And will he stay at SS only?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
Realistically the BABIP should come down some and he probably won't be long for shortstop, but considering where Diaz was in the middle of last season, this year is a damn miracle. He's one of the premier breakout players in the game
Pat
9:39
I'm a huge Girardi proponent and always a big defender against the people that say he's terrible. Last night was bad though-
-Shouldn't have taken tanaka out at 93 pitches...
-if tanaka pitches the 8 or at least part of it, its more likely that the big Sox Thumpers don't come up in the ninth (aware that's speculative). Then warren could have pitched the ninth against the "weaker part of the lineup"
-Hindsight would say he shouldn't have used betances, but If betances is available, let him start the inning, don't bring him in with guys on base (unless there are two outs) because he can't hold runners
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Tanaka was going through the order for a fourth time, and I don't think you worry too much about holding runners when there's one guy on and you're up 5-2
9:41
Generally speaking, I think we can agree that Betances is probably suffering from overuse. Still, the Yankees are playing important games, and Betances is the relief ace, and Girardi got him the ball in position to seal the victory. It didn't happen, but 19 times out of 20, Betances gets that save
Fitch McTeer
9:42
Tim Anderson looks like a freak athlete. How good can he be with the bat?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Not real good at all until he learns the strike zone and starts to elevate
9:43
Right now he doesn't walk, he doesn't make a lot of contact, and the contact he *does* make goes on the ground. Worst of all worlds!
Ryan Zimmerman
9:44
Is my career over? The team has stashed me at 1B because I can't play anywhere else and to make things worse I haven't put up solid numbers since 2013.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
You're still among the league leaders in exit velocity, so there's real hope. Pop remains in that bat. But the injuries have all seemingly added up and you have reduced margin of error. I think healthy Zimmerman can still drive the ball but you need to be carefully managed
Jon Targaryen
9:46
Tell me there is still hope for the Yankees
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
There is still hope for the Yankees
K2
9:46
Was there any construction/I-70 nonsense to speak of on your trip between Golden and Vail? A prospective skier thanks you for the update.
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
It was all very smooth!
Erik
9:46
What team has the best chance of stopping the Cubs? Would you just pick the best team, or does any team match up against them particularly well? What weaknesses do the Cubs even have that a team could match up against?
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