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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/2/16
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Roadhog
10:50
The A's are going to be going with a lot of young prospects in 2017, but the one thing they could really use is an elite CF, and have the trade chips to get one. What would it cost to get three seasons of AJ Pollock from the D-Backs? Graveman + Baretto + Holmes?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
I don't think the Diamondbacks at all want to move Pollock. I bet we could see the A's try to make a play for Inciarte
Ryan
10:51
What would a Seager, Correa, or Lindor extension look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
A small pile of documents
CameronDaClub
10:51
This is probably something everyone has seen and I'm just now noticing, but it's crazy that Kershaw hasn't thrown enough innings to qualify for your guys' pitching leaderboard yet would lead it in WAR if he had.
Jeff Sullivan
10:52
This is exactly the argument for why the Dodgers have always had a strong starting rotation. Just as Mike Trout counts as two awesome outfielders, Clayton Kershaw is like two No. 1s
Jaime
10:53
Cesar Hernandez is a 3-win player. Why?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Looks like UZR thinks he's been a lot better defensively at second base. DRS thinks he's been moderately better. I can't pretend like I've been personally paying attention
BengieStacks
10:54
So Puig and Abreu got me thinking. Is there a hidden, future risk with Cubans? Spending 20 plus years in Cuba must make it tough to focus on baseball once you become an American millionaire.
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
It's an absurd and immediate culture shock. You can also think about the Yuniesky Betancourt example. Cubans are some of the only players from lesser-privileged countries to enter the major leagues almost directly
10:56
On the other hand, Puig was an immediate success. So was Abreu! And that's when they might've had the most difficult time adjusting.
So I'm not sure how much I buy into that risk. I do, however, buy into the notion that Cubans became way overvalued for pretty much no reason
Wick
10:58
Jays' six man rotation: sensible way to maximize Sanchez's value this year/in the future or sure fire way to overexpose your sixth-best starter in EE/Joey Bats walk year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
They don't really have a terrible starter, and by going with this plan, it might in theory make all the starters a little bit more effective. I don't have a problem with it
Jo-Jo
10:58
Does Michael Saunders get 3 guaranteed years in free agency? Or will his lengthy injury history limit him to 2+options?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
2+option(s)
Amarillo Windmill
10:58
Adrian Beltre, amirite?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Also currently leading the league in Clutch!
peopletocakeratio
10:59
billy hamilton hit .270 in august. more importantly, he drew 14 walks. turns out he stole 19 bases too. how much should opposing catchers fear a potential billy hamilton who draws walks?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
Not as much as pitchers. Pitchers bear the bulk of the responsibility
E
10:59
What volcano would you compare Mike Trout to? What about Yonder Alonso?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Mike Trout gets to be Mt Rainier, a massive and beautiful area icon whose collapse will one day devastate every city in its shadow. Yonder Alonso gets to be some shitty volcano in the middle of nowhere no one has heard about
Julio Pepper
11:01
How excited are you for Moncada tonight?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
More excited for Labor Day weekend. I am, however, excited for Moncada after Labor Day weekend
Monsignor Martinez
11:02
Hello Jeff! Is it safe to say that a player's road splits are more indicative of his true talent than his home splits, since road games are played in a variety of different parks, effectively neutralizing the pluses and minuses of park factors?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
It's not quite that easy -- not all road splits are created the same. A Rockies hitter, for example, will have to adjust to road environments, and then three of the four parks in the division are pitcher-friendly
But just generally speaking, over big-enough samples, sure, road splits can be mighty useful
Julio Pepper
11:02
On the Rich Hill topic, what the hell kind of mutant blister is this? Have you ever heard of a blister lasting longer than a week?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
This has to be at least like two standard deviations worse than the usual blister, but if you think about the nature of pitching, and about the nature of *Rich Hill's* pitching, it's tough to give the blister an opportunity to heal without aggravating it by throwing baseballs. Can't let the arm strength go back down to 0
Nathan
11:03
Why is noah syndegaard not in the NL CY conversation when he sits atop the fWAR leaderboard. Is it all IP?
Jeff Sullivan
11:03
Is he not in the conversation?
I feel like he's in the conversation
marklxndr
11:04
Paul Goldschmidt has stolen 21 bases this season (88 in his career at a respectable 79% success rate) and his height/weight are approximately huge/enormous. How does he do it? Good jumps? Is he actually fast? I feel like I've just heard "smart baserunning", but what is he actually doing to be that successful?
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
Daniel Murphy showed that one year that you can steal a lot of bases just by being heads-up all the time. If a pitcher is really slow to the plate, just go and don't be afraid. If the other team just doesn't pay close attention, that opens the door. Joey Votto has stolen 67 bases in his career. He doesn't move well, but teams give you chances when they don't see you as a threat
BengieStacks
11:05
Brewers OF: Broxton, Perez, and Santana. That's 3, young OF making adjustments and sporting some obscure profiles. Villar breakout. Guerra... There's some interesting stuff going on in Milwaukee, no?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Very much so
Jo-Jo
11:06
If Sabathia has a chance at the HOF then surely Hamels is a lock?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Sabathia has thrown a thousand more innings
Jeff
11:07
Not to name names, but Keith Law tweeted that xFIP shouldn't be used. Do you know why he thinks it doesn't hold up? I haven't seen anything showing it isn't an effective stat.
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
xFIP shouldn't be *only* used. It's perfectly useful if you know what to do with it
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