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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:31
So FIP can be especially misleading
Michael S., Big League Advance
9:33
Jeff, if I were to award you: (A) $1 million to make one single free throw in a high-pressure situation, or (B) $10,000 right here and now, no obligations and no questions asked -- which option would you choose?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
The break-even rate there is something like 1%. Of course in reality it's more complicated, but I can shoot a basketball. My free-throw odds are probably at least like 33%
9:34
And the possibility to receive $1m would change my life. Getting $10,000 would be great, but I'd still live in the same place and do the same thing
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:35
This year's AL CYA offers plenty of choices along an inverse relationship between quality of results and number of innings pitched. Is that going to be more common in the era of super bullpens, TTO penalties, and "why leave Sale in, we're a 100 win team whether he goes 6 or 8 innings tonight"?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Yeah, we're probably going to want to focus less on innings pitched, because if the starter didn't pitch those innings, odds are they'd go to some assortment of good relievers. Granted, there's value in not having to use those relievers at all, but just pitching for its own sake isn't super critical if someone else has been superior in less time
9:37
On the other hand, of course, if you have a guy who's great but who only goes like 5 innings every start, then it's not necessarily fair to compare his numbers straight against another starter who works deeper and sees the same hitters more often
Awards voting is *never* as simple as it seems like it should be
9:38
I get to vote for this year's AL Cy Young, but that's not necessarily a treat
Airport Banana
9:38
What’s your favorite “hidden” talent or area of value that isn’t easily explainable by numbers?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
Does deception count? I love that there are deceptive pitchers out there but we don't always know exactly why
Tom
9:39
Which team will be better next year: Rays or As?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I actually think it's the Rays, assuming Treinen can't repeat this kind of season
Both should be contenders
Jonny
9:40
The Rays and the Indians have exactly the same record, but the Rays are 18.5 games back in their division and the Indians  are 14 games ahead in theirs. How crazy is that? And how would you respond to a Rays fan angry at the unfairness of it all?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
The AL East has always been unfair, relative to other divisions, just because of the presence of the Red Sox and Yankees
9:41
As long as there are divisions, some of them are going to be stronger than others. It's not "fair" to the Rays, Jays, or Orioles, but nothing will be done until there's expansion
Bill
9:42
Do starting prospects need to practice relieving before they can do it well? Looking at a load of Braves starting pitching prospects who were decent starting but don’t seem to have it in relief
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
This is anecdotal, but at the end of April 2016, Edwin Diaz was a starter in Double-A. At the start of May 2016, he was a reliever in Double-A. One month later, he was called up to the majors
Some pitchers take to it faster than others, and some pitchers take to it better than others, but it tends to be a pretty quick transition
NYTT
9:44
How would you go about supplementing the Braves position player core this off season? I would think that now, with two MVP type players in Freeman and Acuna and guys like Albies, Camargo, etc to supplement, you go and get guys who can compete for the playoffs now
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
I think the Braves could use another good outfielder. Makes more sense to trade than to sign as an FA. It's too bad Pham already went somewhere he'll be valued
9:46
If they just end up keeping Markakis, well, that's that. But they don't have to
Ryan
9:48
Do you think the Rays' new TV deal will help them actually retain some of the players who have performed well this year, as opposed to churning their roster in typical Rays fashion?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
It's worth noting that, in the final year of the Rays' previous TV deal, they're getting $35 million. In the first year of the next TV deal, they'll get $50 million, and it will increase from there
So the Rays are going to draw in more revenue, but not by some staggering amount, not right away. We should see incrementally higher payrolls moving forward, I'd imagine
9:50
But don't expect the Rays to ever be big-time players in free agency or anything. They're always going to succeed on young-player contract extensions and cheap reinforcements
Greggers
9:52
The Padres have an abundance of intriguing but flawed corner outfielders. Between Cordero, Renfroe and Reyes, which players do you think they should prioritize?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Cordero's injury-marred season has been disappointing but I think the Padres need to hold on to his upside. And then between Renfroe and Reyes, Reyes seems like the better hitter, but he's really a problem in the OF. Presumably belongs somewhere in the American League
Airport Banana
9:53
How easy/hard is to evaluate the overall quality of a front office?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Not too hard to divide into a few tiers, but incredibly hard to achieve further separation
Roger
9:55
Should the Diamondbacks look to rebuild by, e.g., trading Goldschmidt?  Or instead just retool for one more run at contention in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
I think you hope against hope for a potential WC berth in 2019. There's no massive trade package coming back for one year of Paul Goldschmidt
9:56
They'll be an underdog, but as long as Goldschmidt and Greinke are around you might as well try
Dylan
9:56
True or false. The AL Wild Card game should be entirely bullpenned by both teams
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Yankees can get innings from Severino, but no reason for the A's to give whoever starts more than two or three frames
If that's a "normal" starter, so be it. But there's no chance said starter would work deep
James
9:58
Why can't the Astros hit at home? It's been going on for 2 years now. I'm starting to believe the curse of Tal's Hill.
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Minute Maid is, surprisingly, a pitcher-friendly environment. One of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2017&teamid=0&sort=...
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