Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/30/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Hello friends
I guess I'm back to being late again
Welcome to Friday baseball chat!
CamdenWarehouse
9:09
Is there actually evidence that says mid range power guys hit more warning track fly balls than the bigger power guys or is this something that just seems correct?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
I think to me and others it just *seems* correct. Now, this is something that would be possible to investigate with Statcast, so with good fortune someone will take it up in the coming weeks or months to confirm
I'd really like to know how evenly or unevenly fly balls end up being distributed
JT
9:11
Do you feel there is any substantial difference in outcomes between managers who rest 1 guy at a time and play every game at 90% VS managers who put out "Sunday lineups" and basically punt 1 game per week?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I can't imagine there would be any meaningful difference. I see advantages and disadvantages to both and a lot of it probably comes down to what the players in the clubhouse would prefer. The former gives you a fighting chance in every game; the latter is more predictable and could help various players relax
BJOGC
9:12
Jeff, why do the A’s do what they do? I get that they are a small market but the Indians, Rays and Pirates all have similar payrolls and they manage to hold onto their homegrown guys at least through their arb years and they can sometimes find money to extend them. The Marlins have a lower payroll than the A’s and they found the cash for Yelich and Stanton. Why do they blow up their entire roster every season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I wouldn't say they do it every season. To answer directly, they don't have a Yelich, and they would probably disagree with the idea that extending Stanton was smart. I don't think the A's want to end up handcuffed by a contract like that long-term
9:14
Now, they are going to continue to try to work something out with Sonny Gray. They made a legitimate effort to try to re-sign Rich Hill. Josh Reddick, too. They're not opposed to extensions or long-term contracts. They're just wary of them
Rog
9:15
Jeff, do you think some of the difference homerun gains could be related to pitcher approach for individual hitters? Maybe everyone is getting the same boost from a more favorable ball, but the top power hitters and being approached differently, off-setting some of the gains?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I don't think I buy this -- the top power hitters would have always been approached differently. I'm more likely to buy a change in approach in the other direction, with more and more hitters just being willing to let it fly
Andre Dawson's Creek
9:16
Man, Jeff, your articles stick with me. No matter what I've read I'll always end up thinking about something you wrote. Thanks for sharing your talent and hard work with us
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I appreciate this although I have to say sometimes I don't know what I'm doing.
9:17
Like the other day when I wrote about the Nationals and Wilson Ramos and so on. I get what I was going for but I don't know what the point of that article was
Erik
9:17
Just looking at their roster, the Rangers look ever bit a legitimate 94-win team. But BaseRuns has them at basically .500. What am I missing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
For most of the season they didn't have Lucroy or Beltran (or Jeffress). The offense hasn't been dominant and the pitching staff has allowed a good number of runs outside of Hamels/Darvish
I think the Rangers made themselves a lot stronger at the deadline but just looking in hindsight, it's amazing their record is what it is
Andrew
9:19
As a Mets fan, last night's Cardinals game makes me unbelievably stressed. Yadier Molina, a lead going into the final series, tons of injuries. Lots of bad Mets memories here. Talk me off the ledge, please?
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
While the Giants have to deal with the Dodgers and the Cardinals have to try to squeeze by the Pirates, the Mets have the opportunity to play three against the Phillies
9:20
I mean, if the Mets blow this, they don't *deserve* to be in the playoffs
Fire Kevin Cash
9:20
Why not have umpire discretion in placing runners after an automatic double? E.g. if a runner on first was already running, he'd probably score. Why send him back to third?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
I was just reading about this a little while ago. I'm not sure. I'm going to guess it's because baseball wants to minimize the amount of times calls are left up to the umpires' judgment
9:22
In that way it's protective. In the long run, a rule like this won't play any favorites. And because it's set in stone, there's no arguing it
Richie
9:22
On time maybe for the 3rd week in a row?? If so, Boss Dave should've moved west years and chats ago.
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I sure showed you!
Andrew
9:23
I don't know much about this Alec Asher guys the Phillies are throwing against the Mets tonight. What do you think about him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
As a general rule I like prospects who throw so many strikes. Location gets underrated relative to quality of stuff, and Asher is more of a control/command guy. Not likely to become a strikeout pitcher but a lineup that's too patient will find itself behind in an awful lot of counts
Erik
9:27
Even though the Royals weren't very good this year, they still managed to outperform their BaseRuns record by 8 games. Have they kept it up long enough that we ought to think it's a repeatable skill yet?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
I think there's something to the idea that teams are maybe gradually figuring out ways to out-perform the numbers. And in the Royals' case I'd guess a chunk of this is having that really topheavy, lopsided bullpen. So they're equipped to keep their leads, even though in other games they might allow a bunch of late runs
9:30
I'm not doing a great job of putting this into words. But I think the Royals kind of have a "win-this-game" group of pitchers and a "get-them-tomorrow" group of pitchers. The greater the difference between the two groups, the more you can out-perform the overall indicators, I think
Dis One
9:30
Best team of the decade thus far? '11 Phillies? '16 Cubs? '15 Cardinals?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Right now I have to think 2016 Cubs but I'm probably going to try to write about this on Monday when the season's complete
Some of this depends on how strong you think is the difference between leagues
Mike Rizzo
9:31
Give it to me straight Jeff, how bad is it? First Stras, then Murphy, then Harper, now Ramos. My playoff chances ride on Danny Espinosa and Ryan Zimmerman
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Rendon!
Rendon!!!
9:32
I suspect Murphy will be back, and I think Harper's going to be okay, relative to what he's been the last several months. The Nationals still have a good shot, especially if Joe Ross looks healthy
Nathan
9:34
If you were the mets, would you rather face Bumgarner and the Giants pen (given the mets struggle vs. lefties typically) or the Cards in one-gamer?
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