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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/30/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Gotta think Martinez and the Cardinals. He's good and they're good, but Bumgarner is more likely to just totally take a game over
Rob
9:37
What was your take on the Bob Nightengale 'story' regarding Ventura? Whatever the intention, it was poorly conceived.
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
So, I actually missed this, because around this time in the year I'm never interested in reading about managers
9:38
Really, it doesn't matter the time of year -- I mostly skip articles about managers because I don't know what to make of them. I don't know who's good or who's bad so it doesn't grab my attention when someone is on the hot seat
But! Now I've done some quick reading
9:40
Looks like Nightengale got used
That's not altogether unusual
Tebow Time
9:41
Did you see my homerun the other day? I hit the ball off a real professional baseball player.
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
There's the potential for this to become an incredible story. The only problem I have for the moment is that it's not yet anything like an incredible story. Right now it's just a dude who did one thing trying to do another thing. If he actually climbs the ladder, then *that* would be fantastic
Jozef
9:42
Now that Justin Upton's got his hitting stats a little closer to his normal range, is there any consensus on what happened to him this spring and early summer? Ir was it just an extended blip from a high strikeout guy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I think his swing just became a little long and it was easy to exploit him with fastballs that he used to demolish. Bad habits like that can develop over time and for all I know it's possible Upton tried too hard at first to justify the contract he signed. It looks like he's reduced his vulnerability to heat, having slightly shortened up, and while he's always been a streaky player, 2017 should be a lot better than 2016 on balance
CamdenWarehouse
9:44
Is Zunino's future one of alternating incredibly hot streaks and times that look like 2015? Basically, this year.
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
He's always going to be strikeout-prone, and he's always going to do the bulk of his damage with the longball. Kind of like Upton above, he's going to be streaky. When a handful of balls go out in a week, he'll be the team MVP. When those balls die or get fouled off instead, he's going to go hitless
9:46
It's important that Zunino keep walking like he is -- at least that offers some relief from a constant stream of homers and whiffs
Greg
9:46
Has Kershaw done enough since coming off the DL to at least be a legitimate cy Young option?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Yes
9:47
To me, anyway. But I'm not a voter for that one
Mike
9:47
Awards picks?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Trout and Bryant
9:48
Sale and...Syndergaard?
9:49
And while I can't reveal who I'm voting for in the AL for ROY, the NL is obviously Seager
the AL race pretty obviously comes down to Fulmer vs. Sanchez
Erik
9:50
How many teams still wouldn't be contenders next year even if they bought every free agent they wanted this off-season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Probably three or four. As you know, the market's not good
9:51
There's Cespedes at the top. Jansen and Chapman. Hill! There's probably enough that even the worst team could pull itself up to .500
Chris
9:51
If the Red Sox and Rangers meet in the ALCS, the Sox would be heavily favored right? Rangers have the peripherals of a .500 team
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
The Rangers are also stronger now than ever before, and the Red Sox apparently won't have Drew Pomeranz in the starting rotation
9:52
The Rangers added Lucroy, they added Beltran, they added Jeffress, they added Gomez, and now they're getting Choo back
I'd still give the Red Sox the edge because of their lineup, but nothing about that series would be lopsided
Mike
9:52
Who would win in a game of one on one basketball, you or Dave Cameron?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Presumably Dave Cameron, on account of he has played more basketball in the last 15 years
9:53
But I would easily out-climb that basketball-playing son of a bitch
Scott
9:53
How many even years in a row would the Giants have to win the World Series before it became statistically significant, and you would start to expect them to win every other year? 20 times? Never?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
I would never be able to talk myself into believing it's a real thing, just because it wouldn't make any sense, but if the Giants win again this year then I know come 2018 my perception is going to be colored, even against my better judgment
I think we all know it's silly but it's the kind of silly that just kind of sits there forever in the corner of your brainspace
Trouble With the Curve
9:55
I played baseball in college in Michigan and I'm from Chicago (huge Cubs fan). It was fall of 2015 and the Cubs picked up Quintin Berry for a couple pinch runs in September. My pitching coach told me he would start him over Dexter Fowler. During our discussion about this insane comment, he claimed that 'WAR is a stat made up by scientists to try and quantify a game they don't understand'. What is your response to people who try to take the Hawk Harrelson approach? Personally, you don't need to be a certain type of fan to know that Dexter Fowler and Quintin Berry aren't even in the same league. Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I try not to get into arguments -- we're all just sports fans, and I'm not going to criticize the way somebody else prefers to enjoy the game. In a case like that where someone is being openly stupid, I'd probably gently break WAR down and talk about Fowler's superiority in various categories, but I'd never let myself get aggravated over it. It doesn't make a difference. That guy isn't calling any shots; he's just crossing his fingers like everyone else
9:58
In baseball I'm a complete stat nerd. In hockey I try to *avoid* being a stat nerd because I want the release without having to overthink it. There's a lot of fun to be had with either perspective. Can't go wrong unless you choose to be an ass
Unless someone's being an ass, live and let live
9:59
If someone is being an ass, tell them Quintin Berry sucks
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