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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/8/17
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Grover
9:25
Puig seems to have bounced back and put together a very good season, but it increasingly looks more like this is what he is.  Would it make sense for the Dodgers to try and sell high on him this offseason considering their depth or do you think he can reach another gear and is worth hanging on to?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
I imagine the Dodgers are pretty happy that Puig has bounced back as he has. Makes him easier to market, because I think the Dodgers have preferred to go on without him for a while. They've made the best of things in the meantime, but I doubt the Dodgers would hesitate to trade the last two years of Puig's team control for value
9:27
Puig's a good defender, and he seems to have learned some measure of patience. Still, he's a far cry from being a statistical star, which is what the Dodgers would want
2-D
9:28
Is it acceptable, philosophically, to bring in a position player to pitch after rosters have expanded?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Yes, because someone needs to handle the 34th inning
greg
9:28
Is defensive efficiency a decent enough statistic for comparing overall team defenses to each other over the course of a season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
It's a lot better than nothing. Same information as BABIP. There are additional considerations, additional variables, but it ought to be able to separate the best from the worst
Enlightening Round
9:29
Whenever bad contracts get brought up, I never see Homer Bailey mentioned, how bad has this one been?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
6 years, $105 million, 2014 - 2019
Bailey, so far, has contributed 2.2 WAR, over 45 starts
9:31
It's a bad contract, obviously. It would take a miracle now for Bailey to not end up a bust. But at the same time, perhaps it's evidence of people being charitable; hard to hold it against Bailey that he just got hurt. It happens and it sucks and it's nice to see him back on the mound again, throwing close to where he used to throw pre-pain
9:32
On the one hand, Bailey has been a zero for a while, so it would be silly for the Reds to count on him for anything in 2018. On the other hand, Doug Fister is good again, so, who really knows, with pitchers?
Brett W
9:32
Laat month, you described Mitch Haniger's timing as "borked." You are under no obligation to apologize to Haniger, but did you even consider Bork?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
I've lost sleep over this
jeffer sullivaner
9:34
have you seen walker buehler's third pitch? does he even need one?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
As a starter, probably, yeah. In Buehler's debut, he showed rising four-seamers and a big hammer curve. Great combination for a reliever. Obviously, he has the powerful arm. Only threw one slider. Incredibly difficult to cut it as a starting pitcher with two pitches
Even Rich Hill has different curveball varieties, to give hitters a different look
9:37
Drew Pomeranz might be a blueprint here, I guess. It's not impossible. But Buehler would feel a lot safer with at least a show-me third option
CamdenWarehouse
9:37
Can I get route efficiency somewhere for a given play in an in-progress game?  After a game?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I might be wrong but I think route efficiency has been phased out
Aj Hinch
9:37
Who should is my SP#4 in the playoffs, McHugh, Morton, or Peacock?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
The Astros don't need a standard No. 4, and they probably won't have a standard No. 4. I expect them to dedicate at least one playoff rotation spot to a piggyback of sorts
Like, Morton for one turn, then Peacock for one turn, then the rest of the bullpen
Bork
9:40
Think the Jays will be looking for a more stable SS/2B like uh...Profar?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
I imagine they will get on the phone and give it a shot. More than a few teams out there will be looking to give Profar his next opportunity. Really hard to want to give up on Travis, and Tulowitzki might not yet be bad enough to flat-out cut, but the Jays will want to have better depth behind them next April
TJ
9:42
Do you think Jeter will really try and lure Cashman to Miami? I can't believe he'd forget about that last contract negotiation. Jeet seems petty.
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Jeter can try what he wants, and I'm sure he'll try to lure any number of guys. I don't think Cashman leaves, not just as the Yankees are blossoming. The guy who goes to Miami will immediately have to set about making the team worse in the short-term. Unless Cashman *really* wants to begin a completely new chapter, I imagine he sticks around
5 Run Homer
9:46
Thanks for chatting, Jeff! What the heck is wrong with Osuna lately? He's been bad since early august at least
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Looking over things, it appears that Osuna experienced something of an August velocity dip. It's bounced back his last few outings, so Osuna might be getting things straightened out now. I'd guess there was something mechanical. I wouldn't be too worried, not given the entirety of Osuna's 2017 campaign
Brett W
9:47
Playoff rotations. Overall track record, projections, or hot hands?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
In theory, everything informs the projections, so you want to go with the best projections available. But where you have a narrow difference, then you can go with your gut, so to speak, by playing the hot hand or the matchups
Dave
9:49
It's the last game of the regular season. If the Nats win, they're first in the NL and likely play Arizona in the NLDS. If they lose, LA is first, and the Nats get the Cubs. If you're Dusty Baker, do you tank the game?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
No
The Cubs are very good, you'd like to have home field if possible, and it's far from guaranteed the Diamondbacks would beat the Rockies, or the Cardinals, or the Brewers, or whoever they'd face
lastings
9:50
have unwritten rules arguments gotten stupider or are we just noticing them more?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Noticing them more, because we have more people trying to notice them
FireDrayton
9:52
Ken Giles has been lights out the last few weeks. Does it look like anything has changed for him, or is it just a good run of batted-ball and HR suppression luck? Anything else?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
He goes on these runs. Did the same kind of thing around the middle of last season. He's so good at his baseline that, when he gets hot, his performance is exceptional. His current velocity is playing up some, so I'm sure that's contributing, but Giles isn't a meaningfully different reliever
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
9:54
Are you optimistic or pessimistic this benching of Mikael Franco will cause him to learn some f'n plate discipline?  If he watches Daniel Murphy and his no wasted movement, he could be a monster.  His body has too much movement when he swings.
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Optimistic Franco could show a short-term improvement, pessimistic it would stick. I just don't think Franco is very good, and the Phillies feel the same way
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