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Jul12 2021 Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:02
Hi everyone! Thrilled to be pinch-hitting for Brent today, as he's out in Denver for this week's All-Star festivities. He got to scout the Futures Game yesterday and was up-close-and-personal for the First Year Player Draft last night. (For any questions related to the draft, I'm not a prospect wonk, so I won't have anything to add on top of our Round 1 recap that's live on the site today. But, any other questions are fair game... let's go!
HarrytheK
12:10
In forever dynasty, been offered Machado, Albies and prospect Bryson Stott for Acuna. Is this a good enough offer or is Acuna a far superior long-term asset? In first with decent margin but dealing with lots of IL types (who isn't?).
Ray Murphy
12:10
Yup, certainly figured to see some questions along this line today. Such a shame for Acuna, the Braves, fantasy players, MLB in general.

Couple of broad thoughts, though: I've seen some swags at recovery time of 9-10 months. Our injury analyst, Matt Cederholm, put it at more like 6-9 months. I'm NOT an injury expert, but it does seem to me that ACL recovery has gotten shorter over time... you sometimes see basketball players coming down on more of the six month side of that 6-9 month range, and it seems to me they put more strain on their knees (cutting, etc) than MLBers do. Long way of saying... I'd make this decision based on whether you need to sell to win in 2021. But I wouldn't necessarily give a big cut to your expectations for Acuna in 2022 (yet). And to be totally fatalistic, you should also factor in the possibility of a 2022 work stoppage into that calculus, too.

Circling around to the specific offer here: that actually seems pretty good to me. I don't know how much more thn that you can expect.
Beano
12:14
What’s your prognosis on Ian Happ for the 2nd half? I’m considering waiving him for Rudolpho Castro - who I think gets the 2b gig when Frazier is traded. But that may be too rash- Happ has proven abilities- thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:14
Looking through Happ's monthly splits, if you squint there are reasons for optimism. April was awful, May much better... June was bad again, but at least his ct% was up. Not my favorite 2nd half rebound candidate, but I'd think he should get better. Chasing Castro, just based on his callup report (7D rating, toolsy with power but also significant contact issues) sounds pretty rash to me. I'd stick with Happ in this case.
TC
12:18
Hi Guys... Currently sitting in 3rd place..(Mixed league, 5x5, $260 cap).. just lost Acuna.. was offered Harper (one year left at $40), Nola ($33 - 1 year left) Soria ($10) and Matt Boyd (2 years left at $3) for my Acuna (one year left at $54), Eovaldi (2 years at $27), Joe Ross (2 years - $7) and Kopech (1 year left at $1).  We play 5SP and 4RP, Kopech next year at $1 - as a RP is a tremendous value.. I'm not sure that this is enough to keep me in 3rd... thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:18
(I should have bunched the Acuna questions, sorry...)

In this case, I'll go against my earlier counsel. With Acuna at $54 and one year left, that sounds like a pretty iffy keeper for next year. All in all, this deal looks fairly level to me. Replacing Acuna with Harper, upgrading from Eovaldi to Nola and Ross to Boyd all seem positive for you. If Kopech is the price to keep you in the hunt this year, I think you probably take it. (The difference between this and the earlier question is the one year of Acuna at $54, vs the forever-dynasty value).
Pete
12:21
Brent, help me be cautiously optimistic about Joe Musgrove in the 2H after three straight iffy starts.
Ray Murphy
12:21
Not Brent, but a Musgrove owner, so I feel qualified to comment. I thought he had some negative aftereffects from the no-hitter, wasn't as sharp for a month or so... but they dialed back his workload a bit, and he got back into good form. Then his pitch counts went up (nothing egregious, but they were up), and he's wobbling again. Personally, I'm hoping they drop him to the back of the post-break rotation to give him a couple of extra days, and maybe tee him up for another run of the "good" Musgrove.
Gary
12:25
What are some reasonable expectations for Shane McClanahan ROS in a roto league? I have a starts cap (80-some to go) so I won't be entirely reliant on him, but could use a couple good starts.
Ray Murphy
12:25
He's been good, even better than the 4.05 ERA indicates (3.53 xERA). The Rays are showing they know how to deploy him, which is both the positive and negative side of this coin: given short outings, the deep Rays staff (which might be getting even deeper as they get healthy), you can probably expect good ratios to continue, but not enough volume of K's or (especially) Wins. You'd love to see them put an opener in front of him to set him up for more Yarbrough-like Wins, but for whatever reason they haven't gone that way.
Roman Bellic
12:27
Michael Conforto's return to the NYM lineup has been pretty rough (except the high .300s OBP), but he enters the break hitting a three-run shot yesterday. Sign of things to come or could it be a bouncy ride in the second half?
Ray Murphy
12:27
Also a Conforto owner here, and I'm somewhat optimistic. HR yesterday as you note, and 3 BB in the doubleheader the day before. That's at least some sign of the good Conforto. Mets lineup has obviously been through a lot, and their schedule has been a mess too. But Lindor's picking it up, the rest of the lineup (not just Conforto) is getting healthy. This projected to be a very good offense at season's start, we may get to see at least a couple months of that here... a rising tide lifts all boats, etc.
dubykoff
12:33
Hi Ray. In a H2H OBP league with daily lineups, I’ll need to drop either Wilmer Flores or Luis Urias when Rendon returns. It seems that Flores could lose PT when Longoria, LaStella, and possibly Belt come off the IL, but Urias could also lose PT to Travis Shaw, and the Brewers could trade for a 3B upgrade at the deadline. Which one would you hang onto?
Ray Murphy
12:33
I think you've got the Flores part exactly right... he wasn't playing that much when those other guys were healthy, and while he's been ok, I don't think he's done enough to stake a claim to a bigger role when things get crowded again.

Urias, on the other hand, I think you might be underselling. Sure, the Brewers could add at the deadline, but I think Urias has won some rope there. I'm not sure Shaw is that much of a threat, at least. Given Urias' versatility, I think his PT is on reasonably firm ground there. I'd hold him.
Ron
12:39
Hi Ray,
 
1.  The Padres have 5 starters on the DL (Darvish, Snell (short term), Lamet, Clevinger, Weathers). Who could get a look in rotation in 2nd half and stick? Any other sleeper SPs in second half?  2. In your opinion, Trout comes back on ___ and is Top __ player for the rest of the season.
Ray Murphy
12:39
Yes, this Padres depth situation is the counter-argument to my hope above that they'd back off of Musgrove a bit. They don't have that luxury. As far as alternatives, you can always check the Padres depth chart to see who the next guys up might be. (Mackenzie Gore jumps out there, though I'll confess I haven't looked at his minors performance this year at all.) I did see Matt Strahm is rehabbing from his knee injury; I wonder if they'd push him into a 4-5 IP starter role given the circumstances. And there's always the trade market for reinforcements here.

Trout: every reason to think he's going to be Mike Trout when he returns. First-round production for hopefully 2 months.
Ron
12:41
Hi Ray,  what do read from the Danger Ranger's 2 inning save? Any clarity on hierarchy, and should I stop fishing in this hole?
Ray Murphy
12:41
Watched him closely yesterday, since he was facing my Red Sox and all. 7-out save in a one-run game is nothing to sneeze at, that's for sure. He was tough on guys from both sides of the plate, didn't back off at all against RH batters... just froze JDM for a called strike three. It's one game, etc... but given the atrocity that is the rest of that bullpen, I'd be fairly certain that Suarez is going to get the next few save opps there.
PJH
12:43
Thanks, as always, for taking the time. I'm in a H2H points league and trying to upgrade at catcher. I currently have Sean Murphy, was on the verge of grabbing Stassi off waivers this morning, but cancelled the transaction given Murphy's homered in each of the past two games. Who do you value more highly ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:43
Yeah, I'd stick with Murphy there.... haven't forgotten that he figured prominently into a couple of recent Speculator columns. I'll put my faith in Ryan Bloomfield's views anytime. :)
Vince
12:47
Hi!  12-team H2H Roto, Could you please rank rest of season these SPs on my roster ... Kikuchi, McClanahan, Manoah, E Rodriguez, Pineda and Allard.  Need to drop one.  Also, is Tylor Megill worth grabbing from waiver wire, given above pitchers?  Thanks
Ray Murphy
12:47
Ooh, lotsa names. We covered McClanahan already. EdRod's been particularly frustrating to me as a Sox fan, but I like his chances to get better. Pineda is perpetually frustrating... I rode Allard for his two-start week last week, but not wild about him long-term. I see Megill as pretty similar to McClanahan.

Manoah/Kikucki/EdRod are the pick of this group for me.
Mike
12:50
What to do with Cody Bellinger? Do I sit him for CJ Cron for the upcoming 2 week period even though LAD play 2 more games the COL? HTH points league.
Ray Murphy
12:50
I'd like a better alternative than Cron (who I think is basically playable only at Coors), but I'm totally open to your sitting Bellinger until he gives you a reason not to.
Jim D
12:55
Hi Ray - great facts and flukes featuring both Sean Murphy and Luis Torrens this morn. I have Stassi and Murphy in 10-team redraft but Torrens is available. Stassi's performance so far is seductive. Thought that Torrens will at least match Murphy if he continues to get playing time but HQ projections are significantly lower. Would you say Seattle will have patience and  Torrens consistent playing time promise is 50-50 or what? Second, do your batter link projections invite more recent input as such as that in Fact/Flukes to influence an increase in his projection for ROS? Many thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:55
Ah, you see, I hadn't even finished my morning readaround today, and should have linked to that Murphy F/F for sure. Would still take him over Stassi, but throwing Torrens into the mix is definitely interesting. Quite a heater that Torrens has been on... have to figure it earns him some more PT at least. Note that we actually have newcomer Cal Raleigh projected for 50% of the playing time at C, and Torrens getting DH and C time. Lots of moving parts in Seattle as they balance the wild-card race with their future plans.
Beano
12:56
your thoughts on 3 pitchers for the 2nd half: K Muller, D Bednar and B Falter?
Ray Murphy
12:56
Like Muller quite a bit, though now nervous about Braves team context post-Acuna, if they become sellers, etc. I *think* Bednar becomes PIT closer after RichRod is traded, but Crick may still factor in. Falter would be a better question for Brent, but it looks like they like him in that multi-inning relief role, which seems to suit him so far.
Niko
12:59
Hi Ray, thanks for filling in this week! Robbie Ray has been incredible this year, and as a Tigers fan, I can't help but feel it's only a matter of time until he turns back into the pumpkin us folk in the Motor City know him as. How sustainable is this level? Is he starting to vault into top-tier SP range? The lack of walks has been astounding so far.
Ray Murphy
12:59
Yeah, I'm pretty convinced. We always knew the stuff was there. The control gains are fully supported by FpK, Ball%, etc. Assuming it holds the rest of the year, I can certainly see him as a top-20 SP for 2022.
Roger That
1:02
Hey, Ray! Welcome to the chat!

Another forever dynasty question, this one pertaining to the forever frustrating catcher position. In a 6 category H2H format (5 traditional categories + OBP), how would you rank the following catchers for the next 3-5 years? Tyler Stephenson, Carson Kelly, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, and Keibert Ruiz.

Trying to decide which two 2 to keep!

(I’ll take an Advil in the meantime.)

Roger
Ray Murphy
1:02
I will confess up front to not knowing much about Raleigh. Ruiz is interesting, in that he could end up with a new team in next few weeks, which could change his outlook/timeline quite a bit. I like Varsho a lot, just because I think he can be a unique fantasy asset at peak. I also like Kelly quite a bit, thought he got a bad rap for slow start in 2020 and was showing that this year before he got hurt. For now, I'll say Varsho/Kelly, Stephenson close behind.
Ray Murphy
1:03
Geez, looks like we're out of time. Y'all kept me busy for the hour, need to go ice my fingertips now! Enjoy the Derby tonight and the ASG tomorrow... make sure you take a little time to charge your batteries for the second half, too. Happy Monday!
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