JotCast | Jul19 2021 Chat

Jul19 2021 Chat

Ray Murphy

11:04

Good morning and Happy Monday, everyone! Queue looks nice and full even though I moved the chat an hour earlier than usual.... let's dive in!

Guest

11:09

Thanks for your work, esp. the HQ Radio spots, Ray. Two quickies. Do you think Kimbrel gets traded, and who closes if so? Second, what do you think of Touki's chances to become a productive/regular part of the ATL rotation?

Ray Murphy

11:09

I do think Kimbrel gets traded. Less sure about Baez/Bryant as the Cubs apparently are still exploring extensions with those two, but Kimbrel makes too much sense to trade. As far as who takes over, I think it's slight edge to Tepera, but I don't think that's written in stone. (And you can't rule out the idea that they get a future closer-type back in a Kimbrel package, either.)

As for Touki, I wrote him up in today's Matchups column (https://www.baseballhq.com/content/daily-matchups-rookie-kaprielian-am...), although now it seems like it's Muller tonight and Touki tomorrow. TT's last two starts in Gwinnett are intriguing for sure... it's only two starts, but that may be enough to take a flier on him depending on your circumstances.

Dave

11:12

Jarren Duran and Brandon Marsh are both available today on the waiver wire for the first time. Can have only one. Keeper league, playing for next year and beyond. Which would you choose and why?

Ray Murphy

11:12

Periodic reminder that I'm not nearly the prospect wonk that my co-GM Brent Hershey is... so in cases like this, I rely on the tools on the site. In this case, our Daily Callups report has covered both Marsh and Duran in the past couple of days (https://www.baseballhq.com/content/call-ups-july-13-19-2021).

There, we rate Marsh an 8B prospect and Duran a 7B. So, edge Marsh... except that we generally don't change those ratings in-season, and Duran has unlocked some previously-unseen skills in AAA this year (specifically power). That *might* be enough to pull him onto equivalent footing to Marsh here. At least, it's a close call.

Guest

11:15

Sam Hilliard is back up. Do you expect him to A) get much playing time and B) make enough contact to produce value?

Ray Murphy

11:15

Hilliard was mashing in Triple-A, but he's done that before.... and contact was still a problem. Given state of the org, the Rockies certainly *should* want to take a decent look at him over the rest of the season... but you could have lost a lot of money over the past couple of years betting on what the Rockies *should* do.

If there's even an inkling that he's going to get some runway, the power/speed blend is enough to get me interested quickly. But I don't think I'd be rushing to pick him up before we get that inkling.

pmdank

11:17

Hey is Yarbrough a top pitcher tonite?

Ray Murphy

11:17

He's not *a* top pitcher, he's *the* top pitcher, though I threw a little shade at that rating in the Matchups column (https://www.baseballhq.com/content/daily-matchups-rookie-kaprielian-am...). Here's the snip:

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, TAM) is a bit of a surprise owner of the day's top rating. His form has been off-peak lately (5.00 ERA, 4.37 xERA over last 31 days, no PQS-DOM outings), and the opposing Orioles have been much more productive against southpaws this year. But those Orioles are also 29-62, which gives Yarbrough an elite Win rating that props up his overall number.

As the headline of that article states, pitching is pretty sketchy tonight.

Jim D

11:18

Aaron Nola - he of the 8.53/1.53 era/whip last 31 days and all that goes with it, even the 6 command.The pundits project he will come back. Give me a sign! He has been worse month by month and while you describe his h/strand as unfortunate he is also pitching in the zone 8% more than last year. Can his lowered bb level be an overused skill that is hurting him? Or is he just unlucky. What are the odds of a rapid turnaround? (10 team redraft so I have options). Thanks!

Ray Murphy

11:21

(oops, hit the wrong button there)

I will confess that I haven't gone down to the pitch-type data with Nola, but this is a case where you don't overthink it: 8.35 ERA/3.03 xERA over last 31 days? 48% hit rate, 48% strand rate? None of those numbers are sustainable. And it's not like he's a nobody, he's Aaron Nola and comes with that pedigree. Throw him back in your lineup for tomorrow night and expect a full and quick rebound.

Steve

11:26

12 Team AL Only Traditional 5X5. Our league's 5 pitching categories are very tight. Steven Matz is available on the waiver wire this week. Would you take him over either Heaney (skills better than results) or Pineda (results better than skills) for the rest of the season?

Ray Murphy

11:26

Tepid recommendation only, but given these choices I'd take Matz here. He gets a bit of benefit as the Jays finally leave Buffalo for Toronto at t end of this month. I'm (finally) over the notion that Pineda's results are ever going to match his skills. Heaney seems fairly interchangeable with Matz.

Ron

11:31

Hi Ray! In a 14-team H2H points league, redraft and no keepers, line-ups are set weekly and we start 3 SP, 1 RP. Always try to maximize starts for the week. Sometimes having only 3 starts is not always desired no matter how good the SP's are. I currently have Giolito, Ray, Musgrove, Lopez (DL), Means, Wood, Montgomery, Megill, and Mills. My only 1B is Aguilar. Offered a trade of Wood for Josh Bell - thoughts on if this would be an upgrade for rest of season.

Ray Murphy

11:31

Eh, that's a lot of SP options, but Wood's been really good... and with Musgrove struggling of late and Lopez hurt, you might be needing to use Wood. Meanwhile, Bell's picked it up lately, but I'm not sure he's clearly better than Aguilar... at least not enough to justify losing Wood.

Jeff KC

11:36

Hi Ray. I'm in 5x5 AL-only league. Season's 2nd half begins the countdown for pitchers that will be on innings limit and may not pitch into September. Which AL pitchers do you foresee this happening to? Thanks.

Ray Murphy

11:36

I don't think I have enough characters here to make a list. :)

Seriously, it's going to be a massive issue. Just to take my local Red Sox as an example, they have called up Tanner Houck, have Chris Sale coming back, and may well add another SP by the trade deadline. There's talk of 6-man rotation, tandem starts, etc... the whole kitchen sink is on the table. And this is from a contending team, let alone a non-contender who can just choose to shut guys down.

AL leaguer

11:44

Thanks for doing this Ray. Question about the upcoming trade deadline. The biggest impact to fantasy is when a player is traded from one league to the other (AL to NL or vice-versa). At this point, which players do you see as most likely to be traded out of their league? Thanks.

Ray Murphy

11:44

Yeah, "at this point" is doing a lot work here. Looking at it from a macro perspective, it seems to me that maybe right now the flow might be more AL-to-NL? I say that just because the three big guys in the NL West will likely all be looking to buy, plus the Mets and Brewers are contenders who have obvious places they can upgrade.

The AL has more quasi-contenders in terms of teams who are within a couple of games of the WC, but that doesn't necessarily mean that many of those will actually become buyers. It might be a very last-minute deadline as teams wait as long as possible to choose their direction.

I realize you're looking for specific predictions... I used to do more of that back when I wrote the Speculator, but I don't have a lot of strong reads right now. I'll tentatively say that I think the chances of Trevor Story staying in the NL seem pretty good, just because a lot of the NL contenders seem to have ways to fit him into their lineups.

Beano

11:47

Question about B Anderson & A Dickerson & I Happ -will Anderson be back soon & roster worthy? Will Dickerson start hitting again sometime? Will Happ have any 2nd half value?

Ray Murphy

11:47

I haven't seen recent news on Anderson, but think I'd favor him among these three. Dickerson's in danger of getting upgraded at the deadline, I fear. Happ probably gets a lot of rope with the Cubs and he certainly could figure it out, but there just aren't a lot of positive signs in his skills at the moment.

Beano

11:48

Thoughts on Bumgarner in the 2nd half?

Ray Murphy

11:48

Declining skills, bad team... lots of downside there. I realize he had a good start the other night against the Cubs, but I'd either be selling that start if I own him already, or staying clear if I don't.

Rich

11:50

Hi Ray. David Price or Dylan Cease ROS in a 12-team, H2H league? Thanks!

Ray Murphy

11:50

Like them both, obv good team context in both cases... but Cease really looks like he's figuring things out in-season. BPV has risen every month. Passed a test against tough HOU lineup over the weekend, with flying colors. Could be a really good finishing kick coming there.

Katman

11:54

What’s gotten into Willie Adames? Looks like a step forward across the board. How does this change his long term prognosis?

Ray Murphy

11:54

I'm enjoying his breakout. I don't think what we're seeing here is that out of line with what we thought he could become at peak. I'll also point out that we had a really interesting note in a Fact/Fluke writeup on him a few weeks ago (available on his Playerlink page) that noted his home/road splits in Tampa, with a comment from Adames himself that he had trouble picking up the ball in the Trop. Just a little more fodder for the "this might be sustainable" camp.

Guest

11:56

HI Ray ... J.T. Brubaker, is it time to move on or should I wait it out and just bench him and be real selective about his starts and see if he can reduce those homers?

15 team Mixed, Redraft, W+QS

Ray Murphy

11:56

I don't think I'd give up... seems like in the scenario you paint here (being selective with starts), you should be able to bleed out some value. His skills have more than a little appeal, it's a good home park (and decent division) to pitch in, and the supporting lineup is even looking better lately... or at least it's not as much of an atrocity as it was early in the season. Depends on your alternatives, but I'd probably hold him.

Niko

11:59

Good morning, Ray. The injury bug is sinking my pitching staff. Currently have Bieber, Sale, Antone and now Lopez on the IL. Are Ranger Suarez, Michael Kopech and Eduardo Rodriguez viable replacement options in a 10 team roto (Sv+Hd)?

Ray Murphy

11:59

Strong vote for EdRod here. Suarez may get some saves, but seems likely to be volatile. Kopech isn't stretched out, so he's going to have trouble returning value. EdRod was the cover boy on Stephen Nickrand's 2H value plays article last week. Say it with me: always listen to Nickrand.

Guest

12:00

HI Ray, I have not seen any word on a Castillo injury in TAM, yet Fairbanks with 2 saves and no sign of Diego. Any ideas what is going on?

Ray Murphy

12:00

Haven't seen anything official either... lacking any other explanation, Castillo had a pretty big workload (by TAM standards) in the first half, I'm guessing they're just trying to get him a bit of an extended ASB breather?

Ray Murphy

12:00

OK, lightning round time...

Guest

12:01

My IL and bench is full of pitchers. Gallen and Logan Webb are now active. Gomber is due back soon.I need to drop one to clear bench space for a bat: Brubaker, Megill, Merrill Kelly. I'm chasing wins and also have Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers.

Ray Murphy

12:01

I just said "hold Brubaker" above, but in this company I drop him.

Mike

12:02

Replacing Buster Posey is never easy but that's what I have to do. Would you take Narvaez or Stallings in a OBP roto format until Posey returns?

Ray Murphy

12:02

Other Posey owners hate you for having those good options. OBP format says take Narvaez.

John

12:04

12 tm weekly h2h pts. Jon Gray @ LAD or Tristin McKenzie (@Hou, TB)