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Jul26 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Good noon (in the East), y'all! Back from my two-week hiatus, which included the All Star Weekend and some good ol' R&R. Nice collection of questions here ... let's get to it!
Ron
12:10
Hi Brent, I would like your thoughts on whether 1) Aquino will be a productive regular (~70% PT) in CIN; 2) Cortes will put up a string of 5 IP starts in NY; and 3) Glasnow can make good on his aim to return in some meaningful way in 2021 (HQ has him for 11 IP).
Brent Hershey
12:10
1) Think there will be power here, but that swing/miss will keep the BA dangerously low and makes him slump-prone. I'd take the under easily on that 70% PT% ROS
2) Don't really trust Cortes yet either; Ks are there BB rate isn't real promising; he seems like the type who could get bounced from rotation fairly easily this week if they get a more experienced starter.
3) Have no idea, other than to make the observation that a couple players this year have beaten or are on the path to beating Est. return dates (Framber/Eloy/Robert). None of those injuries were UCL-oriented, though. I'd hold Glasnow for sure if I could, but keep expectations low for now.
Bobby B.
12:13
Brent, welcome back, my man!

I've had a man-crush on Tyler Stephenson for over a month now, and only Daulton Varsho has tested that love (recently). Both of these gentlemen are looking mighty comfortable in the batters' box.

Where do you see the two being drafted in dynasty leagues next season?

Love the column!

Bobby
Brent Hershey
12:13
Thanks, Bobby ... both have had good recent runs for sure. Given their youth, I'm really still in 'play out the season mode' -- both to see how they finish with 2+ months to go, but also to see how their teams employ them (primary catchers or other positions). That will give me a better sense of where to slot them in a dynasty context. Both bats look real good right now, though.
Dennis
12:16
In a 5X5 12 Team H2H league.  Pick two of the following pitchers to keep for ROS. Patrick Sandoval, Shane McClanahan, or John Means.
Brent Hershey
12:16
Tough. Probably have to keep Means for one, b/c of 1) Track record/experience esp pre-injury; 2) history of good ratios. Like the other two a lot; might slightly pref Sandoval given how McClanahan sometimes runs into BB issues AND one has to figure he's prob more likely to be innings-managed ROS than Sandoval. Super-close, though; could say that McCl has the higher ceiling and would be a great match w/ Means.
John
12:18
12 tm h2h pts. Are you rolling with Joe Ross this week, @PHI and vs CHC?
Brent Hershey
12:18
Yes, even coming off that injury. Philly O inconsistent, and our model LOVES Ross' chances in the 2nd start. Roll on.
Rich
12:22
Hi Brent.  What do you make of Harrison Bader's recent hot streak, and his season-long improvement in CT%?  Should he be rostered in 4-OF, 12-team mixed leagues going forward?  And what kind of production would you expect ROS?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:22
When a young player jumps forward statistically like Bader has, AND there's a tangible improvement in skills and/or Statcast metrics, I'm much more likely to be a believer. Amazed every time I scan his ct% column; I tend to think this is for real, even if he regresses a bit back. His potential multi-category contribution does sneak him into 12-teamers for me, though 4-OFs would probably make it close. Think he's good for 6-9 HRs and 6-9 SB the rest of the way, w/ a 260ish BA ROS.
Rich
12:23
Also, would you rather have Bader or Lamonte Wade Jr. ROS?  Wade has yet to get a base hit off a lefty, but he's been crushing righties.  And I assume he could lose some PT against righties if/when Belt returns, although there would probably be room for him in the outfield against RHP's if he keeps mashing.
Brent Hershey
12:23
Bader, who b/c of his defense will get more AB opps. Especially if he continues to hit like this, don't think StL will sit him down much.
The Kid
12:25
Alex Kirilloff is out for the season and a contender will move him to my rebuilding AL 5x5 only team. BUT I'm having trouble finding out what his value is in 2022.  What number would you put on him? Thank you.
Brent Hershey
12:25
Not exactly sure what you mean by "number" ... but not sure that it matters. Kirilloff is a SUPER get for a rebuilder in this situation -- MIN committed to him, hit + power tools there throughout the minors (and pre-injury proved had staying power at MLB); could well have 1B and OF eligibility for next year ... lots, lots to like. Would not hesitate to add.
HarrytheK
12:28
Scraping the bottom of the barrel of keep-forever dynasty outfielders, who is the better going-forward asset: Gregory Polanco or Jorge Soler?
Brent Hershey
12:28
Soler, who possesses and has demonstrated at the MLB level the one strongest tool between the two -- HR power. Risks in both, but I'd want Soler (who I feel could have a much better ROS than what he's shown so far in 2021).
PJH
12:32
Hi Brent, welcome back! Quick question about catchers in my H2H points league. Who would you prefer ROS -- Sean Murphy or Mitch Garver? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:32
Our numbers say Garver pretty handily ... though I think Murphy is better than what he's shown so far in 2021. Power potential leans Garver, though.
Will
12:37
What do you think are the chances the Nats would trade Trea Turner before the deadline?  Is he someone to trade away in NL-ONLY keeper league where I’d lose him for nothing if he goes to AL?  Thanks!!
Brent Hershey
12:37
I can't see that that scenario is very likely. I mean anything can happen, and feel like the Nats will sell, but I would not preemptively trade him in an NL only. Trevor Story? Maybe ... though this strategy in general is not how I like to play. But Turner, no for sure. Much more likely he stays put.
Greg
12:39
5x5 standard rotis league-How do you rank the following pitchers long-term?  Logan Gilbert, Jesus Luzardo and Daniel Lynch? Thanks for your thoughts
Brent Hershey
12:39
Luzardo, Lynch, Gilbert. Like all 3, and I know Gilbert has shown me much more than I anticipated this early. But Luzardo still with best stuff (easily IMO), and the Lynch I saw in the minors much closer to yesterday than his early season debacle. Should all be fun to watch after we get through the early-career bumps
Jim
12:44
Hypothetical: Dave Dombrowski goes against type and offers Nola to pitching-strapped LA for Bobby Miller and Andy Pages. Who says no? Miller becomes a front-line piece to add to recent first round picks Abel and Painter -- controllable, talented pitching assets. Pages becomes a power OF bat desperately missing from Phils current farm.
Brent Hershey
12:44
Can DD say 'no' if he's the one making the offer? :-) Seriously, though -- this is a the type of deal DD has shown he makes from the OTHER side; plus with a 9-year playoff-less streak and the team at .500 with some big-time pieces, the Phils are not making a deal like this in-season. And suspending reality, this return is light for a #2 starter; again given the rest of the team makeup, they would certainly seek a main MLB-ready or MLB-proven piece as part of the package. And no qualms with your eval of Miller/Pages ... just very very unlikely for it to happen.
Sean
12:49
Welcome back Brent. Deep points league question for you. Do you like Wade over Choi for more playing time and upside in the second half? Wade and Aquino were featured in Nick's column today.
Brent Hershey
12:49
We have Choi > Wade in both ROS playing time and output. Both have PT% questions since their clubs mix/match so much. And though I like Wade a ton for fantasy (maybe more than I should), I'd lean Choi here.
Brent Hershey
12:50
Additional note related to the above ... also realize that PT% for the ROS could shift greatly depending on the Trade Deadline moves between now and Friday. Things like Cruz coming into TAM (where one figures he'll pretty much lock down DH, taking ABs from... someone) are essential things to remember.
Guest
12:53
How can I track spin rate changes?  Got a link? What pitches should we be looking at, FB or what?
Brent Hershey
12:53
There are some analysts who are tracking it; Eno Sarris at the Athletic is one. But can also DIY via the Baseball Savant search pages -- put in the average spin rates as one of the stats and then enter the time frame you want. FB, SL, CB spin are the best three to look at.
GoPirates
12:59
Hi, Brent! I have to ask ... how does the trade to SD affect Frazier's value for this year? Any chance that we're seeing a Merrifield-light breakout?
Brent Hershey
12:59
Mostly positive, as his surrounding cast is so much better (sorry, given your handle). So things like pros runs/RBI will get a small boost. Skeptical of the Merrifield comp; while Frazier's contact skill is superb, his 2021 value is still BA-heavy (just 4 HR/5 SB so far) and he's had a career-best BABIP with a (BHQ) hard-hit rate that is a career low. That's not usually a recipe for sustainability. He is going to be a part of some winning fantasy rosters, though, in 2021!
Susan
1:05
Brent!! Hope you enjoyed your vacation! =)

I've seen you comment on Baddoo in this feature. Can we get an update on what you're thinking about the exciting rookie?

Thanks for everything!!
Brent Hershey
1:05
I did, thank you! Baddoo's results overall have been favorable, of course -- much more than we anticipated for a Rule5 draftee. But the skills also been inconsistent, both month-to-month and 1H/2H (obv much smaller 2H sample). BB%/CT% 1H to 2H:  13/67 to 3/77. So walking much less in 2H, but make much more contact. Much more power in 2H, but running far less. All adds up for now to some hopeful optimism, and glad to see DET plugging him in every day. But next 2 months will continue to fill out his profile. Is an exciting talent to watch for sure.
Jeff's Roommate
1:07
Love this chat! Makes my week -- always.

Brent, how valuable is Jazz Chisholm in dynasty leagues? In 2-3 years, could this guy be a stud? Trying to gage his ceiling prior to the trade deadline.

TY! :)
Brent Hershey
1:07
I think very valuable, especially early in his career. Has shown so far he can overcome some serious swing/miss in his game. At 23, maybe he's able to focus/improve on better contact and more BA without sacrificing the power and speed? If so, he becomes a stud at that point; but a very useful and good fantasy player even if not.
Sterling
1:08
A Facts/Flukes article posted earlier this month seemed to like Patrick Sandoval as an emerging options. After Saturday's brilliant performance, how are you viewing him ROS, say, in 10 team leagues?
Brent Hershey
1:08
Bunch of good things going on with Sandoval for sure. Right now, probably safer (more experienced) options in a 10-teamer, but if you need to take a shot, trying to catch lightning in a bottle, there are worse options than Sandoval ROS for sure. Good luck!
Guest
1:09
hi brent, NL Only  Touki or Gray (dodgers)?  May (mets), Lugo or Treinen?
Brent Hershey
1:09
Js Gray over Touki (though it's close). And Treinen over either Mets option
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