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July 25 2022 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
Hey all ... back at it here as traditional second half gets rolling. Thanks for joining and/or dropping in questions ahead of time. As always, be sure to give me player choices and/or specifics on your league settings ... should be a fun run-up to the trade deadline, will do my best to give some perspective but surprises are always the norm, right? OK, let's go ...
Michael
12:07
Hi guys, thanks for the great advice! Still competitive in my NL-only after a miserable first half. A big 2-start week how would you rank them? Manaea, Brubaker, Trevor Rogers, Lodolo, Ashby. Any too risky and start Braxton Garrett instead (weekly lineup)?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Our ratings say Lodolo, Ashby <gap> Brubaker, Rogers, Manaea. With all those 2-starters, might consider Garrett over Rogers or Manea. Nice group, though!
DrDave
12:09
NL-only keeper.  I have 3 offers for my $1 T.Stephenson  1) $10 Varsho  2) $10 W. Smith  3) $6 d'Arnaud and expiring contract Happ.  I could use Happ to fill a weak OF spot.  Varsho, Smith and Stephenson all have 2023 left, d'Arnaud is in his first year.  I'm in 2nd place going for it.  What's your call?
Brent Hershey
12:09
Smith. Best overall proven hitter; should be below value in 2023. Though, man, giving up on $1 Stephenson hurts ... but flags fly, etc.
Greg
12:14
Good morning Brent- Looking forward to another chat session as we head into late July with the MLB Trade deadline looming. I am in an AL only and NL only dynasty keeper league and have a question for each: 1) Would you rather have Felix Bautista or Dany Jimenez rest of way for the potential for saves? In NL, I'm curious why Baseball HQ has Yerry De Los Santos at a $20 value and ranked as the 16th best NL pitcher rest of season? Thanks in advance-Greg
Brent Hershey
12:14
1) Bautista; don't trust Jiménez's health enough
2) Whoa, thanks for that — our model can sometimes have trouble with first-year players w/ crazy MLEs from the year previous, and sometimes they slip through without a manual adjustment. My hunch is that's what's going on here (his pERA and pWHIP are driving that value). We'll correct.
Todd
12:20
Do you see any optimism with Yasmani Grandal? Rostered Cal Raleigh while Grandal was on the IL. For now, I am holding onto both.  OBP league, which is normally where Yasmani succeeds, but he has been a drain all season.  
I appreciate your time
Brent Hershey
12:20
2021's bb% rate was a crazy-high 23%; 2022's is down just a bit off hi career norms. Aging and a terrible BA due to some unfortunate BABIP is partially to blame, but poor batted ball quality, too. Minuscule Jun/Jul sample provides a bit of hope ... but you might just want Raleigh ROS given the gains he's made (though won't help much in OBP), but I'd probably just hold both as long as you can.
richardo
12:23
HQ has G Valero @ 5'10 & 160. Another site 5'11 & 195. Huge difference. Do U know who is closest to reality?
Brent Hershey
12:23
Assuming Guardians prospect Valera; not sure where the 5-10, 160 is coming from. In our 2022 book, we list at 5-11, 185. But ... there are times when MLB teams (and thus our data providers) don't update the ht/wt stats consistently. In this case, I'll bet that 5-10 160 was his data when he signed as a teenager many years ago. All that to say, 5-11, 185/195 is closer to the truth
Quad 4's
12:26
This week: Jon Gray at SEA or Alex Cobb vs CHC?
Brent Hershey
12:26
Gray
Hungry
12:30
Bellinger and M. Ozuna have been major disappointments this year.  Do you see them improving in the 2d half?
Brent Hershey
12:30
Ozuna on a similar path last year, but still feel like he is more likely to improve 2H than Bellinger, whose drop-off remains somewhat of a mystery. Think there's a better chance Ozuna goes .250 w/ double-digit pop the rest of the way, though it's not the top of my list of players who are set for a rebound.
Rockstarscotty
12:32
Thoughts on J. Luzardo in a 12 team mixed 5x5? Better than R. Suarez?
Brent Hershey
12:32
All comes down to health. Give me both the same # of starts ROS, I'm taking Luzardo every time. But in a 12-tm, with Luzardo's health challenges, it becomes closer. I think Suárez settles into a back-of-the-rotation type (inconsistent) over the next few seasons.
Quad 4's
12:33
Is Nelson Cruz droppable at this point in 12tm h2h pts leagues? Can replace with Chas McCormick or Nico Hoerner
Brent Hershey
12:33
Yes, in a 12, I'd rather have McCormick or Hoerner at this point.  Probably slight edge to Hoerner (better likelihood of AB rest of the way).
louMartelli
12:36
Contending for first in a deep NL league. I picked up Nelson Velasquez as a FA. Is there a path to playing time that includes starts against RHP or this a platoon-only bat. His power looks legit. What were his minor league splits like?
Brent Hershey
12:36
MiLB splits not bad ... flat this year; some difference in 2021 but not horrible (.773 OPS vRHP). So that tells me that yes, he could see full-time AB in that OF the rest of the way if/when Happ or another OF gets moved. Not guaranteed, but the pop he's shown so far make it an interesting fantasy gamble at this point.
Beano
12:39
Crystal Ball Time: Who are impact players that will join the NL and who are some impact players that will join the AL during this season's trading deadline?
Brent Hershey
12:39
Your guess as good as mine ... but since that's a crappy answer, my WAG would be ... how about Pablo López and Jarred Kelenic
DrDave
12:40
Grayson Rodriguez $10 for Andrew Vaughn $14.  Which side are you on?  AL only keeper league
Brent Hershey
12:40
Grayson; think he could be special.
Steve
12:42
12-team AL-only traditional 5X5 keeper league.  I am in contention this year with a definite chance of winning.  I have Jose Miranda and Edward Oliveres on my roster, both of whom I think could contribute down the stretch. How do you assess their ROS?  Am I better off holding or trying to trade them for a bigger piece this year?  The trade market is pretty thin but Ramon Laureano is a likely return for one of them.
Brent Hershey
12:42
Olivares' repeated injuries give me pause, and he's the perfect type to use in a trade for more of a win-now player like Laureano. Miranda has seemed to weather the bumps, and I think he could be a 2H staple in that Twins lineup. Think JM and EO have similar long-term value, but JM>EO quite easily rest of this season.
AAA Allstar
12:44
NL only - keeper - 5x5 - OBP instead of BA. Which pitcher do you like best - Dakota Hudson or Braxton Garrett? Also do you think Tyler Mahle gets traded and if so do you think it will be an NL team? Thank You Brent!! Really enjoy your Monday chat!!
Brent Hershey
12:44
a) Garrett >> Hudson without question
b) Yes; I have no idea but chances are just under 50/50 :-)
Bob
12:45
Do you think McCullers will be good when he comes back?
Brent Hershey
12:45
Yes; he's shown that when he pitches, he is usually fantasy productive. Role will be the big question here ... I'm wary of saying he'll move right into that rotation; think a hybrid or RP role in 2022 is more realistic.
Quad 4's
12:46
2B replacement for Story. h2h pts this week: R.McMahon or A.Gimenez? Both have 7 games this week with McMahon at Coors for 6 games (vs LAD for 4) and Gimenez with 2 starts against LHP (McLanahan and Springs)
Brent Hershey
12:46
McMahon has looked so rough this year; think I'd go the hotter current hand with Giménez even with a Coors week.
Rich
12:48
Hi Brent. I chose Braxton Garrett over Reed Detmers this weekend as a replacement for the injured Steven Matz, and Detmers promptly went out and threw his third gem in a row using his new, faster slider. Nickrand's recent write-up of Garrett makes me feel a bit better about my choice, but which pitcher would you prefer ROS and why?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:48
I would prefer Detmers slightly, but it's not a slam-dunk and think Garrett will serve you well. Look forward, not back -- both were worthy choices. Good luck!
Dalton
12:50
Any updates on Yordan's wrist and if your gut thinks he ends up on the IL this week? Obviously this is pure speculation.
Brent Hershey
12:50
My gut says no, though HOU babies it and he only gets 4 starts. Longer-term (ROS) it sounds a bit daunting ... though on the other hand, if it's still a problem in week or two, they'll probably just put him on the IL with the lead they have. Get him right for the stretch run/playoffs
Ron
12:52
Hi Brent, best saves speculation out of Puk, Munoz, and Cimber?   How many games does L. Robert play ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:52
Not super high on any of these Sv specs ... but Puk has less things that have to happen to find Sv opps. I mean, Romano goes down w/ an injury, sure -- then Cimber is THE guy ... but it's more likely that OAK trades away a couple RPs, and Puk sneaks into that role.
Brent Hershey
12:53
On Robert ... no way of telling; though those symptoms do not sound good. That's about the only insight I can give you.
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