July10_26_HQChat
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Ray Murphy
12:03
Happy "Last Friday of the first half" to all who celebrate. Before we dive in, a quick PSA for First Pitch Arizona... today's the last day to get our best price on this fall's event. I know, it's hard to believe we're planning for the offseason already. But we sold out this event last year and are tracking to do so again. Even if you don't register today, spend the Break week negotiating with your significant other... trust me, it's that good of a time.
Commish
12:10
Has marriage been the downfall of Paul Skenes this year?????
Ray Murphy
12:10
There's certainly been a lot of angst about him lately, I've seen questions like this all over the place... including from people who aren't usually prone to overreaction. But I look at his Playerlink page and I don't get what everyone is so worked up about. Yeah, a 3.58 ERA is disappointing after he was under 2.00 in 2024-25. But... the skills are in lockstep... 5% BB, 29% K, 23% K-BB% are all identical to last year. Career xERAs: 2.58, 3.10, 3.31. BPX: 202-190-209. Sure, the velocity's down a tick, but the biggest difference from 2024-25 to now is that his strand rate is down from 82-83% to 68%. Basically... take a breath, everyone. This is just normal variance in outcomes.
Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo
12:12
Was offered Kyle Harrison for one of my prized prospects in my NL only. I know the elbow soreness is a slight red flag but is that ths only reason he has a 5 era in his last 4 starts or can we expect this is regression. Was his first half legit? Thank you
Ray Murphy
12:12
Where's the "why not both?" meme? Yes, the first half looked very legitimate to me. But I also think the current elbow issue is way more than a "slight" red flag. I'd be pretty worried about him going forward.
Broken Bat
12:15
Welcome back Kotter! 4x4 slim pickings at SS. Winn, Sanoja, or Volpe. Need average, stolen bases. Long shot Mayer of RedSox..Not looking for power/ RBI’s from this roster spot. Who ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:15
Slim picking indeed. If you want to gamble on some chunks of SB, I'd take Volpe. But if you're content for some BA stabilization and a smattering of SB, I'd take Winn... his ct% has spiked in last month, if he keeps that up he can carry a nice BA and contribute some bags.
vincent
12:21
Ray, thank you. 4x4 al only ros.  does gurerro get a chance to close in boiston this year? does chz get traded? is troy melton a legit star? will grant taylor ascend to ownung closer role alone? do the red sox make the playtoffs?  lastly weathers or ian seymour ros? thank you Ray!
Ray Murphy
12:21
Guerrero's a crazy story... 35 years old, always threw gas without any semblance of control. And suddenly he's found control. Does he close? I tend to think the Sox don't end up selling Chapman, but if they do Guerrero would be in the mix.

Other q's: Melton is having a nice breakout, I don't know what "legit star" means to you, though. Taylor should close in Chicago at some point, but I have no idea when that is. Seymour over Weathers.
will
12:24
Ray, if chapman traded is slaten the new closer? pitched the 8th yesterday. what do you tea leaves say? Appreciate the chats!
Ray Murphy
12:24
He was rough early on but has settled down lately. He'd be in the mix. But Guerrero's been better. Like I said, I tend to think Chapman stays, though.
Brian K
12:27
Hi Ray, 5X5 16 team redraft. Will Kade Anderson (Seattle) be promoted as a starter or Relief. I was just offered Lawrence Butler for him straight up and was wondering why? Your thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:27
As always, I'm the wrong person for prospect questions. But Seattle has too many SP already, and they're trying to manage Anderson's workload... would seem to me the obvious choice is to bring him up as a multi-inning relief weapon.
Kenny_Powers22
12:30
Hey Ray. Dynasty NL Only OBP/R/RBI/TB/NetSB. Looking for FAAB advice. Currently in 2nd by a double digit margin. Only real chance at making a run is making up ground in SB. I've got Carrigg, Ewing, Crews, Abrams, EDLC, Merrill, Marsh and traded for Hoerner. Still find myself in second to last in SB with a 40 bag difference between me and 1st in the category. 3rd place is only 20 bags ahead. I've got 40% of my original FAAB remaining. How much would you burn on Lara? Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:30
I've got a team in a similar situation, scrounging for SB. There aren't going to be many SB difference makers still to come, so makes sense to be aggressive on Lara. The issue, though, is that I'm not convinced he's going to play a ton. We've only got him at 25% PT right now. Tough call for FAAB this weekend, but your circumstances probably dictate you should be aggressive and hope the PT materializes.
Kent
12:31
Mauricio Dubon. ROS outlook?
Ray Murphy
12:31
He's been around forever, I think we have a pretty good idea of what he is at this point. And that is "not as good as he was in the first half".
Chris
12:35
Hi Ray,
Thanks for taking my questions. 15-team 5X5 NFBC.
1.   Is Jose Soriano fixable? I read the depressing news where Arte Moreno says he won’t let the Angels trade him, so he’ll continue to take advice from the crappy LAA pitching staff. I’ve already lost Clay Holmes and Ben Brown so I’d like to hold on to Soriano, and the SPs available are Cecconi, Ryan Johnson, Ober and Sandoval. How would you rate them ROS if Soriano continues to disappoint?
2.   Same with Eugenio Suarez. The last time I benched him he hit 2 dingers in one game (of course), but because of him, Jarren Duran, Gelof (hurt) and now Goldschmidt (0 for 18), I need help with R/HR/RBI. Players available are streaky, non-power, or don’t get much PT: Campusano, Polanco, R Gonzalez, McKinstry, K Watson, Lara, Loftin, A Hedges. Any of these I should take a flyer on for power ROS? Thank you.
Ray Murphy
12:35
Soriano started off super hot, regression hit him hard... but the full season results and skills are right in line with each other. This is what he is... a mid-3's guy with a lot of K's. I like that more than any of the alternatives you list here.

Suarez.. I saw Tito's post-game comments on him last night and thought they were pretty interesting. Tito's right, the guy can get rolling and hang big numbers. Again, I'd hold him over any of the guys you listed.
Bones
12:36
12 team mixed OBP league. Griffin out indefinately. No one will trade. Free agent options Dubon Willie Castro Clement Meidroth. Best for ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:36
OBP format would push me toward Meidroth.
Foot
12:42
What are your thoughts on the KC closer situation?  Estevez is shut down again, and Lange has been imploding, with two 5er apps sandwiching two 0er saves over the past 2 weeks.  Lynch has been their most reliable RP but is a lefty and they seem hesitant to let him close.  Erceg’s been better since 01 June, 3.14era over 14ip but 7:8 k:bb ratio.  Does Erceg get another shot?  Do they finally let Lynch try?  Does someone else step in?  What a mess……
Ray Murphy
12:42
Mess is right... I have to think Lange is disqualified at this point after that 2nd implosion. Wouldn't be surprised if the next opp goes to Strahm over Erceg, but that could be matchup dependent.

Also, good chance for me to plug a new tool we just rolled out: go to KC Depth Chart, click on Reliever Usage... a nice handy 7-day rolling bullpen usage chart, showing pitch counts, innings, and decisions for relievers.
Tundra
12:43
So, a question that would have been hard to imagine when the season began, but would you drop Riley for Karros at this point?
Ray Murphy
12:43
Crazy idea in March, not crazy now. Riley just seems incredibly lost. QBaB is still decent, but the strikeouts are just way too high.
Ray Murphy
12:47
Think I'll wrap it up here.... enjoy the weekend of ball, and don't forget to reconnect with your loved ones during the ASB next week. :) Back with a second half kickoff chat next Friday!
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