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July13 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:04
Greetings, y'all! Baseball is back; just 10 days away from opening day. Here to chat on fantasy baseball for the next hour or so; thanks for joining in. Will get to as many of these as I can. Onward!
Rich
12:07
Hi Brent; thanks for chatting. I’m in a 12-team OBP league with 5 bench spots. Should I cut Brian Anderson for Eric Thames?  I could bench Thames against lefties (only about 25% of MLB East SPs), and his production against righties will likely outshine Anderson’s. Plus, he’s in a better lineup, albeit probably lower in the batting order. I can play Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on days when Thames faces lefties.
Brent Hershey
12:07
I'm in the Brian-Anderson-could-be-a-sneaky play camp (it's not heavily populated), but especially with Zimmerman opting out, Thames might be a better option given your ability to sit him v LHP and Gurriel in there. Don't think it's a huge upgrade, but likely is something (which might be all you need this year).
Walleye John
12:10
Do we have a consensus, who is likely to be ahead to start the season pitchers or hitters?  Might the elite pitchers be ahead of the hitters but hitters be ahead of the rest of the pitchers?
Brent Hershey
12:10
So hard to say, but your take is kinda the way I lean. Pitchers having to stretch themselves out, the bigger rosters for a month at least which should push down IP (more options for managers) would seem to favor hitters in general. But feel like your Cole/deG/Max/JV set will be fine and ready to go more innings quicker.
Beano
12:14
Atlanta saves breakdown- is Melancon getting the lions share?
Brent Hershey
12:14
That's the way we have it right now. Will Smith getting COVID-free would obviously alter that, and we still like him a bunch ... but OTOH, there's little margin of error for ramp up time for these guys coming back. Maybe a reserve pick on Shane Greene .... but for better or worse, Melancon's the guy right now
Ricky
12:17
How do you feel about Lance McCullers and Tyler Glasnow this season? Seems like both are rising in this shortened season. Which do you prefer in a points league?
Brent Hershey
12:17
I'll take Glasnow. He's still two-pitch heavy, but they are devastating pitches, and he looked so good in spring training 1.0. Better shot for Ks going forward, even in this weird season.
Dean
12:21
I am playing in a points league for the first time after nine years of roto. I think I am real rosy about Cody Bellinger and would like to pair him with a pitcher, if possible, in rounds 1-2. Cole and deGrom will likely be gone. Would you rather pair with Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander or go younger and take a Walker Buehler?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Verlander would be our pick in points, assuming Cole/deG are gone. So much consistency there, Ks still in gobs, etc. Buehler over Max (injury history; age) if JV is gone.
Stephan
12:26
My league is trying something new this year by determining the draft order through KDS. I have never done KDS before and am trying to determine my order. What are some things to keep in mind with KDS, and for this year, what slots do you prefer ranking near the top in a 10-team league?
Brent Hershey
12:26
A bit less strategy in a 10-teamer (as opposed to 12 or 15 teams) in that even if you sit near the middle, you won't be waiting between picks. But of course, no one else will be either. Traditional wisdom goes 1-2, maybe 3 up top as first three choices, then back to 10-9 ... idea being that have two picks in near succession, at either end, can be advantageous because you can think of picks in double as you build your team. BUT ... research has shown that league winners can come from any slot. It's a fun exercise, especially when trying it for the first time. Enjoy!
Katman
12:28
How do I pick players who are not going to test + for COVID?
Brent Hershey
12:28
Feels like our normal injury risk on steroids, right? This 60-game season is gonna be so crazy.
Katman
12:32
How much should I devalue Freddie Freeman?
Brent Hershey
12:32
There's really a strategy that could go along the lines of just cross him (or any other COVID +) off. In other words, let the others make the decision on how far he falls. So much unknown, you can't be kicking yourself at the end of the season if he comes back you say 'Ah, if I only took him in the 4th round' or whatever. Right now, it's a huge risk, the season is short .... I might just avoid.
RK
12:36
Hey Brent.  Would you prefer Winker or Thames in an OBP league with daily roster moves?  Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:36
I lean better hitter in this case, so I think that goes to Winker. The NL DH obv helps both, giving them extra routes to playing time. But feel like the situation in CIN gives Winker more rope, even with his 2019 struggles, than Thames will get in WAS. But not an easy call, either. Slow v quick starts going to make such a difference for everyone.
Gil Hodges
12:40
Which pitchers do you see as having a good number of saves but are not projected as the their team's primary closer?
Brent Hershey
12:40
With the caveat that "a good number" might only be 8-10 in the context of your question, you might consider Nick Anderson, Tony Watson, Scott Oberg ... even Zach Britton? The saves category is just going to be crazy due to the short season.
Roger
12:44
In the drafts you've done so far, what hitter are you finding yourself grabbing more often than not, and why?
Brent Hershey
12:44
Pre-COVID, I was getting a ton of Randal Grichik and Teoscar Hernandez late; I think because their lower BA proj were keeping people away and they would come up on my 'late power stashes' list. Think guys like this still valid in short-season; you just hope for the hot streak at some point where they rack up a bunch of HRs.
Dave-BHQ subscriber
12:47
Drafting this weekend, who are some of your favorite under the radar picks either league?
Brent Hershey
12:50
whoops, published the wrong one. I'm likely to take shots on some near-ready prospects who now should be up on rosters quickly, if not at the start. So Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard types in the NL / Nate Pearson, maybe Jo Adell in AL. Even if they don't make initial roster, should be there in a week or 10 days (service time finagling)
Dave-BHQ subscriber
12:50
Someone said stars and scrubs approach might NOT be the way to go in a 60 game season.  Your thoughts?
Brent Hershey
12:50
Part of the idea there is that in compressed season, you don't have the time to 'wait' for your scrubs to find the playing time they need to give you a big ROI, which you often need to win with this approach. Add in the crap-shoot of expensive, big hame guys testing positive and wrecking your roster in that way, and some will argue that spreading out your risk over 60 games is the better choice. I can see either side ... have fun with it and don't be afraid to try something new in the sprint.
TJ
12:55
If you had to pick a tie-breaker stat, what would it be for SP and hitters?
Brent Hershey
12:55
Two ways to do this. On one side, for hitters I'd consider max exit velocity (some research that it shows potential in small samples). And pitchers, probably K/BB or K%-BB%. Ability to  strikeout considerably more than one walks is a great indicator. Another side to look at this year is competition; comparing the East / Central / West 'divisions' for this year. Don't think it's prudent to make that a BIG part of player analysis ... but as a tiebreaker, I'd consider.
roto-nut
12:56
I picked up Nick Burdi only bcuz Keone Kela isn't even in town yet. Odds of him closing if Kela doesn't show up?
Brent Hershey
12:56
As good as anyone in the pen, really. Stuff there for Burdi; health always a concern. Could put up good numbers in a short season if gets opp and can avoid injury
beano
12:57
I'm keen on Joe Musgrove - should I be?
Brent Hershey
12:57
In general, yes -- though huge error bars for everyone this year. Not a top of the rotation guy, but solid innings and accumulator going forward.
ATL
12:59
Bullish or Bearish on Ozzie Albies?
Brent Hershey
12:59
BIG Albies fan; love the broad base of skills he brings, youth adds upside. He's another higher-ranked guy that I have rostered on several of my teams.
rosmith
1:02
What’s up with Miles Mikolas?
Brent Hershey
1:02
Pinpoint control in 2018 unfairly raised expectations; 'meh' K rate keeps him middle/back end tier for me. In that way, was not surprised by his 2019. Batted ball frequency keeps ceiling low.
beano
1:05
What's you take on the value of the Dodger's Urias? Will this be his year to join the elite pitchers?
Brent Hershey
1:05
In this 2020 context, don't think anyone can be thought to 'join' or 'fall out of' any tier, so to speak, in terms of long-term value. And especially for a pitcher whom you feel might have the goods to be "elite" -- that only materializes in the midst of a full normal season (or seasons). I like Urias a lot; 2020 factors could give him a great chance to succeed and grow, but he'll need to prove himself over more than just 37% of a full season to reach that elite status. In the right situation, though, would love to have him on my 2020 squad.
Brent Hershey
1:07
Good work, folks ... appreciate all the questions throughout. Fingers crossed; will be doing this every week from here on (Mondays at noon); drop by ahead or during when you can. Can always reach out and ask questions/give me a follow on Twitter @BrentHQ, and drop by BaseballHQ.com for our daily analysis and all the tools that come with a subscription. Great time to try us out here in this sprint ... Thanks!
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