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July5 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Welcome to July! Hope all had/are having a great holiday weekend; here to have some rest-of-the-season discussion. Reminder that best questions have some context (lg size, format, etc) and/or player choices for me to rank. Lots going on; let’s get to it!
Jay
12:07
Hi Brent, these are the best part of my Mondays. I'm in fourth place in Saves+Holds in my keeper league (both count for 1 point each). The 2nd-7th place teams are separated by only 8 Sv+Hds. I currently have Romano, W. Smith, Ottavino, Barlow and Ty Rogers, but have been offered Karinchak and/or Barnes from a rebuilding team. Safe to stick with my current options or explore those two via trade?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Wow, "best part"? High praise ... Assuming here would be replacing one of the "currents," Without doing the math right now, I'd think that Karinchak/Barnes % of appearances so far in which they've recorded either a save OR a hold is higher than Barlow, and perhaps Ottavino. I'd check on that, then perhaps make a move if my hunch is correct. However, your current quintet seems strong; it's just that I wonder if the Karin/Otta option might make it even better.
Pete
12:08
ETA on Vidal Brujan? Seems like it's not too far away. Worth holding in 10-team, 25-man keeper if you need steals?
Brent Hershey
12:08
ETA so difficult to say, but would agree that he's close. Normally would not recommend burning a spot in 10-teamers, but with that much of a roster bench and Bruján's proximity, yes I think you hold him.
Ron
12:13
Hi Brent: Happy holiday and thanks for the help. I’ve three quickies for the Fourth! (1) What is Ranger Suarez's share of saves ROS? >40%? Why would the merry go-round stop? (2) What’s eating Eugenio in CIN? Am I getting 20-25 HR in the second half? (3) Does Escobar get traded by ARI? To CHW?
Brent Hershey
12:13
Same to ya!
1) This point in time, not that high. More like 20-25%, I'd think. But this could change quickly as Girardi is looking for anyone to get outs in that bullpen. 2) Swing and miss. No, 16-18. 3) Yes. That seems to be the favorite, but predicting trade outcomes is a feeble proposition. Have to think he gets moved, though.
Cj
12:17
How would you value Harrison Bader for the second half in an OBP league? How does he compare to someone like Hunter Renfroe?
Brent Hershey
12:17
You know what you're getting mostly in Renfroe. Bader's huge step up in ct% (small sample given injuries) AND double-digit walk rate history AND age (27) AND unfortunate BABIP so far point to the possibility of a nice 2H run. Would steal a few more bags, too. Might lean Bader if it was a straight-up choice.
PJH
12:24
Hi Brent, what are your thoughts on Brady Singer for ROS? He's been pretty horrible recently and I'm wondering whether he's still having shoulder issues. The WW is pretty thin in my league, but I could potentially pick up Dunning as a replacement.

Unrelated fun fact: I was co-commissioner of Tout Wars during its inaugural season and also created the logos that both TW and BaseballHQ are still using today. I'm back to playing roto after a 15-year break and it's amazing to see how the site has evolved over time. Congrats on all the success!
Brent Hershey
12:24
Wow, those are fun facts ... thank YOU for being a part way back when, and great to hear from you.
Singer is a spot-play for me at this point; skills say surface numbers should be a bit better, but wish he had better control (walk rate) so that his GB% could have greater impact. Might like Dunning just a touch more since his arsenal is a BIT deeper, but they are close overall.
David
12:28
In a standard 6x6 Roto Keeper league, with W/K/ERA/WHIP as SP Categories, could you rank these SP as long term keepers, I need to make some decisions; E.Rod,T.Megill, M.Manning, D.Lynch, L.Patino,S.McClanahan,K.Muller,and D.Lamet. I know there are a lot of names but I need to make choices. Thank you as this would be my first ever question submitted. Thank you
Brent Hershey
12:28
Welcome to the chat; we love first-timers. My rank; long-term:
Patino / McClanahan <gap> Lynch / Lamet / E-Rod / Muller / Manning / Megill
Obv I think Lynch will get it figured out; Lamet is tough b/c of the constant injury history ... could easily move him down on just long-term value; had questions on Manning before his callup that perf so far has only confirmed. Good luck, and stop by again in the future!
Mike
12:31
Thanks for the chat. Cody Bellinger has fallen off a cliff since returning from IL and he wasn't good beforehand. Any hope for a second half comeback or is this a lost season?
Brent Hershey
12:31
Ugh; yeah. Still think there's a chance for a rebound in 2H, though could also be that his body is just too beat up and he's not been healthy at all (shoulder coming into season; now leg in-season). I'm going to hold on at least a little while longer; could be that the All Star Break is what he needs physically.
Buff
12:35
Stock up on Rodolfo Castro, with apparently improved hit tool? Possible top 100, or is that too high?
Brent Hershey
12:35
Interested for sure given his first half (Castro a IF prospect for PIT who's had a great season so far). But Top 100 is still a bit high, I'd think. Obv won't be playing 3B in PIT with Hayes there ... but 2B not out of the question once Frazier moves along. I'd expect a bump up to AAA soon and will be watching his results and position.
Buff
12:37
Stock down on Brennen Davis with struggles in AA, especially high K%?
Brent Hershey
12:37
Not necessarily; always had some swing/miss to his game, and this is his first exposure to high minors. Will have more in about a week; one of our BaseballHQ guys should see him live this week and we might have a report on the site and/or podcast soon. Thanks!
Buff
12:40
With newfound power, is Ezequiel Tovar making himself into a serious prospect?
Brent Hershey
12:40
Yes. Still low-A, so it's a-ways off, but this Rockies middle infielder should be on dynasty/keeper league radars. Big improvements so far in 2021.
Jim
12:43
Mason Martin has significant swing and miss to his game, but the .578 SLG at AA this year is noteworthy. Prospect on the rise if K rate becomes more tolerable? 1B not exactly stocked in the Pirate's system.
Brent Hershey
12:43
Saw him in person earlier this year, and didn't stand out to me as a serious in-game threat at the higher levels. (That batting-practice show, though .....). Think the current holes in his swing will make it difficult for him as he continually faces better pitching. But yes, IF the K rate becomes more tolerable, then we might have something ... just often tough to close up holes like that at the higher levels.
Brent Hershey
12:44
Loving all the prospect questions this week!
Rich
12:47
Hi Brent. Should I trade Correa for Muncy in a 5X5 H2H OBP league?  Rendon is my only 3B, so Muncy's 3B eligibility could come in handy if Rendon keeps getting hurt.  And I have Crawford and Semien available to play SS if I move Correa (Crawford is currently my MI and Semien is my 2B, with Hiura as a backup at 1B and 2B).
Brent Hershey
12:47
Yeah, given the info above, that move seems like a good one. Such a huge bounce-back year for Muncy; that OBP rocks again, and ability to move him around is gold. Also encouraged by Correa's year, but a bb% this high is out of character for him (adds a touch of risk ROS) and sounds like you have the depth to move him. Thumbs up.
Scott
12:50
What are your thoughts on Willy Adames? Could he be breaking out or just a hot streak with new team?
Brent Hershey
12:50
Starting to think MIL got him at the right time. Overall, growing power metrics, contact rate rebound, still just 25 y/o. Don't count on many steals, but this could be a new level for him.
Chris
12:56
Zach Thompson has looked really good so far. Are you a believer?
Brent Hershey
12:56
I'm hesitant -- though agree he's looked good. Part of my question is role ... before getting the call to MIA, he hadn't started a game since 2017. 2017!!! Logged 97 appearances from 2018 through his callup, all in relief. So now he's a starter? K rate and other skills in MIA have been amazing, so maybe he's found something. But on a couple levels, this doesn't make sense long-term. Fine with rostering him to try to catch on to this streak ... but don't get too attached. Can't see it working long-term.
Jake from Iowa
1:01
10 team 4X4 AL only league. Please rate following pitchers.  I may need two. Gilbert, kaprielian,Irvin, stripling, flexen.  If time then rate Hitters Goodwin,McCormick,Fraley,toro, Cameron Thanks
Brent Hershey
1:01
P: Gilbert/Kap/ <huge gap> / Stripling / Irvin / Flexen.
H: This is just a playing time question ... Wonder if Toro and McCormick play when Bregman/Tucker return. Goodwin might be best, but they could well replace via trade. OK, I'll commit: Daz / Goodwin / Fraley / McCormick / Toro ... but lots of volatility here.
Dubykoff
1:02
In a 12-team, 5x5 H2H league, I’ve been waiting for Alex Cobb’s results to catch up to his skills: 4.60 ERA, 2.93 xERA, 148 BPV.  His last start against the Orioles was great; maybe his luck is changing. Should I hold onto him, or cut him for a stud RP like Loaisiga or McHugh?  Maybe he’ll get traded to a better defensive team. . . .
Brent Hershey
1:02
I'm using Cobb only as a matchups play ... sometimes in, sometimes not. If you don't have that flexibility (or even if you do), those two relievers are great alternative options. Strong mutli-innings guys on good MLB teams.
Beano
1:04
thoughts on Bender of Miami?
Brent Hershey
1:04
Very watchable b/c of team situation. Has velo / control / GB combination that often works wonders at the back end of a bullpen. Also has inexperience that can self-destruct at times.
Beano
1:05
adding: would you rather have Suter or Bender in an NL 5x5 league?
Brent Hershey
1:05
This year, prob Suter, but can make the Bender case.
Guest
1:06
What's your take on the Suarez lefty out in Antiheim?
Brent Hershey
1:06
Oh, how I wonder if that last word is intentional ... Is going to get his chances to start, best case scenario is more likely a solid #3/#4 than anything above that.
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