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Jun1 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Greetin’s on this Tuesday … doin’ this a day later than normal thanks to the long weekend. But we’ve got your fantasy baseball chat fix covered, as it looks like the queue is strong. Still time to add your questions, though! Reminder that supplying brief context on player-specific Qs is helpful (player pool, number of teams, non-standard categories, etc). And with that …
Ron
12:07
Hi Brent. I am one of the many HQers who bought Clase, and my league scores saves only. What is the best guess for the save split ROS in CLE? And what about Feyereisen's save share ROS in TAM (I like what I see so far)?  Bonus question: Trout returns in Y weeks and is a Top X producer (e.g., Top 10)? What is X and Y?
Brent Hershey
12:07
I see those CLE and TAM pens as similar for the rest of the season: several good choices to save games in both situations, but fantasy folk can never be 100% sure of who that will be. Still think Clase/Karin is something like a 60/40 split and given TAM's aggressive use of Feyereisen early on in his tenure, I'd fall somewhere near 60% for him as well. But prob neither spot leans into a 95% situation.
Bonus guess: 4 weeks; top 20
Mark
12:09
Thanks for the chat, as always.  I was hoping for some general strategy on hook numbers for pitchers in Scoresheet.  I know what probably most do (as dictated by Scoresheets website), but I'm curious if you have developed something that you feel works better.
Brent Hershey
12:09
I play it contextually, depending on my confidence level and depth of bullpen. With strong RP and many options (obv preferred), I keep the hook numbers for starters a bit lower, and very low for the relievers themselves (even 1.5 range). Weak bullpen, I crank up the hook #s for my best starters so they can have a rough start and won't get pulled too early.
Mark
12:13
Jorge Soler...is he going to bounce back?  I see lots and lots of negative value...but wondering if he can be had for below market value...would it be worth trying to pick him up?
Brent Hershey
12:13
Exit velo/hard hit rates are fine, but plate skills and power have deteriorated since that 2019 season. I think he has to play better from here on out ... but probably time to lower overall expectations (this also serves as a note to self ...). Not sure I'd chase him.
Gabe
12:15
Rate this trade, please: 13-Team Mixed 10 P, 1200 IP min, 1 UT, 4 OF, 2xC,1B,2B,3B,SS - Got an offer I turned into the following for a sell-out to me: Jacob DeGrom and Hector Neris for Trevor Rogers and Mychal Givens.  Did I Win, Push or Lose?
Brent Hershey
12:15
Not clear which side you are on, but I prefer deGrom side easily.
Vince
12:19
Hi! In 12-team roto category league, Marco Gonzales and Elieser Hernandez coming off my IL. Have Pineda, Framber Valdez, Kikuchi, DeSclanfani, Manoah and McClanahan at end of rotation. Please rank all ROS. Note, the Skubal, Gomber, Brubaker seem to be top waiver wire options.

Thanks
Brent Hershey
12:19
Pineda / Framber / Kikuchi / Manoah / Gonzales / McClanahan / ** DeSclafani-Eliesier.
**Would rank Skubal and Brubaker here
Sean
12:22
In need of a bat, and I was offered Wil Myers for Pablo Lopez. Do you like Myers ROS? His power skills have been meh, which scares me because of the new ball.
Brent Hershey
12:22
Power is down a bit, but in a great lineup and though I like Lopez some, this seems like a decent return if you need offense. Don't think I'd make a big deal out of the ball in this case.
Jacob
12:22
Do you like Larnach more than any of these guys rest of season? Willie Calhoun, Ian Happ or Andrew Vaughn.
Brent Hershey
12:22
I'd take Larnach over Happ, but not the other two.
Andrew
12:27
What is going on with DJ LeMahieu? Should I be worried the new baseball is affecting him more, since he never hit the ball that hard?
Brent Hershey
12:27
He's had very solid hard-hit metrics in his career, so that change in 2021 is concerning a bit. Add that to a big dip in contact rate over 2020 and some bad luck on hr/f, and here we are. On a pure hitting side, April much better than May, so wouldn't quite write him off just yet.
Rich
12:30
Hi Brent. Need to replace Laureano temporarily in an OBP league. Looking at Renfroe, Amed Rosario, and Larnach.  Could you please rank them, probably more as two-week stopgaps than for ROS?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:30
If it's just for two weeks, I'd probably ignore the OBP problems and rank them in the order you have. Renfroe's pop, Rosario's current mini-streak win out over the unproven Larnach. But if you're hedging in case of longer-term needs, Larnach has shown good patience so far.
Frank
12:36
Have we seen enough to say the Feyereisen will at least be the co-closer (or better) until further notice?  Or sell high on him now while I can?
Brent Hershey
12:36
All depends on the return (and your expectations of course), but could be a sly move. I addressed JPF a bit above, but a couple of interesting soft factors at play here: 1) The forward-thinking Rays acquire him (notable w/ their track record); 2) They say at the trade that he has end-of-the-game stuff; 3) He gets 3 saves in, what, less than 10 days? I'm pretty intrigued, and also think that there's always a chance that even with the mix-and-match history, that if there's one guy that comes in and has success shutting the door, maybe the Rays go w/ a single closer. In which case his value skyrockets on that team.
Mike
12:38
Yastrzemski looks to be picking it up in May, at least skills wise, are you a believer?
Brent Hershey
12:38
Had a star next to his name since last fall when putting together our Baseball Forecaster book, so yes you can say that. Results not there yet but skills uptick (much better contact rate) say its coming.
Katman
12:42
A few years ago my NL farm system was a great source of pride — Acuna, Soto, Robles, and  Senzel. Acuna and Soto are now locked in to long-term fantasy contracts, but it feels like it may be time to cut bait on the other two. Any reason to hold?
Brent Hershey
12:42
Note that this is how it usually works — for both fantasy players and MLB clubs. Some guys fulfill their potential; other guys don't. And say that as a longtime Robles apologist, given how many exceptional performances I saw from him on minor league fields. At his point, I hold out more hope for Senzel ever being a productive fantasy producer than Robles. That health question, though, is real.
Greg
12:48
Good afternoon, Brent. Is there anything to suggest beyond what I can read on Alec Bohm's playerlink that he will be a disciplined player? >70% CT% and sub-par walk rates don't get me excited for the future.
Brent Hershey
12:48
Yep, absolutely. His minor league track record and 2020 cup of coffee strongly suggests that this current slump — and it's terrible, no doubt — is out of character for him. Another player I saw a bunch in the minors, and his best attributes were his plate discipline, ability to work counts, and to use the whole field. I thought that combination would make him somewhat 'slump-proof' at the MLB level, but this start is obv proving me wrong. So while I can't sugarcoat 2021 for you, and I also have concerns that his 3B defense is not a long-term solution -- his past points to a different type of player that what we're seeing now. Should you hang onto him this year? Open question for sure. Obv has to find a way to adjust to reach his potential.
Scotty
12:52
Is Sims going to see enough save ops to hang onto? That Cincy pen is a headache!
Brent Hershey
12:52
Bigtime headache. Again, this is another "soft factors" analysis (Is this what I do for bullpens now? <shudder>), but it sure seems to me that the Reds seem to "want" to have Sims take that job; just in terms of how many opps they are giving him. That's my take ... which means that I remain interested in Sims in case he 'finds' it — as I get the sense that if so, they would be more likely to hand that role to one guy than some of the other MLB teams we've discussed today (Rays, Cle). But also a case to me made to just stay away from the 'hoping' game ...
Katman
12:54
TINSTAAPP. Time to move Mackenzie Gore? Might still be able to get good value.
Brent Hershey
12:54
All depends on the return and your expectations ... but yes, I'd say his stock is down some, and you might be able to get a nice return from someone who still views him as a top-3 MiLB starter, which I'm not sure he is at this point.
Scotty
12:55
Would you drop L. Sims (Have Melancon, Nerris) or D. Lamet to stash F. Reyes? 15 team 5x5, last in hr, bottom 3rd in hitting, but tops in pitching.
Brent Hershey
12:55
A Sims chat; love it! In this case, yes, with those other CL in hand, I'd think Franmil would provide and upgrade in overall value from Sims. Do it.
Katman
1:00
Really like the way the Brewers are moving Adames around in the lineup, and early results are good. Where would you rank him among NL SS ROS?
Brent Hershey
1:00
Still middle of the pack, if not lower-third, in the NL SS rankings for me. Getting some BABIP love early; his K% is far too high to get too excited about at this point. Could improve as he's still just 25, but better contact is going to have to be a part of that.
Mugghead
1:03
I'm in a H2H points league and seem to consistently start the wrong closer every day. I have Clase, Neris, McGee and Rogers and can start any two of them. Deciding between McGee and Rogers is particularly challenging. Any thoughts on how to approach making that decision each game? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
1:03
LOL, no. Well, other than just go with the two that seem to have the best hold on the job -- right now, prob Neris and McGee? And then sit guys who have pitched two days in a row previous, I guess? Granted that this situation looks especially challenging and likely very frustrating! Good luck
Brent Hershey
1:06
Thanks much all, for shifting days and coming out. We'll be back at our normal Monday NoonET slot next week. In the meantime, check out our goodies at BaseballHQ.com, including a new prospect podcast that fellow writer Chris Blessing and I have started called The Eyes Have It that focuses on live looks at fantasy-relevant minor leaguers. You can find a link to the most recent one on the right-hand side of the BHQ home page. Thanks all - have a great week!
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