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Jun12 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:00
Good... afternoon, everyone! I'm filling in for Brent in this weekly ritual, as he's offline today. Truth is, I've been wanting to jump in here for a while. As Brent warned me, we've got a full queue of questions already; I'll hit as many as I can in an hour. Luckily I've got a plate of leftover gnocchi in front of me, so I'll be carb-loaded for this. (What's that, you're supposed to carb-load before the race, not during it? Nah....)
Dave
12:03
Ray, thank you for the chat!  Please rank in H2H points for ROS- Renfroe, Conforto, JD Davis, Ozuna (BTW, this is the order from my CDG).  Seems high on Renfroe and low on Ozuna.  Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:03
Just eyeballing our projections without knowing the exact scoring system... H2H points tends to be heavily influenced by projected PT, so it's not surprising to see that the PT ranges on these guys pretty much follow the rank order. That's the best thing about Renfroe... he should be in there near every day, since they can't even settle on a viable LF, let alone have someone to push him out of RF. As for Ozuna, I thought he was headed for a DFA a month or so ago, then he got hot. But still wonder how much rope he gets if he goes cold again.
Rich
12:06
Hi Ray. Logan Gilbert's average fastball velocity was down more than 1 mph to 94.7 in yesterday's start, and he gave up 11 hard-hit balls (and 6 earned runs) in 3+ innings. How worried should I be? Is this kind of velo drop most likely due to an injury, a mechanical issue, fatigue, or just a blip?
Ray Murphy
12:06
Scanning his game log in Playerlink, it was his first start in a month where his avg FB velo was 95 rather than 96, but 94-95 was basically where he was living for his first 5-6 starts of the season. So it doesn't seem wildly out of line to me. I'd probably follow the Mariners' lead here... if they send him back out for his next turn on regular rest, I'd probably chalk this up to "one of those days".
Dave
12:08
Ray, cut Chris Sale or Freddy Peralta for Gavin Williams in H2H points redraft? Worried about Sale being useful for playoffs.  Thx!
Ray Murphy
12:08
Yeah, I cut Sale everywhere I had him this weekend... and ripped up my +8000 ticket for "Sale wins AL Cy Young". H2H is the only place where I might consider keeping him, just because of the playoff element. I'd certainly cut Sale before Peralta.
Manga
12:10
DeLuca was just dropped.  Worth picking him up in NL-only?
Ray Murphy
12:10
Jonny, I assume? Doesn't exactly seem controversial that he was dropped. I don't know what your alternatives are, but I bet you have some.
Alex
12:15
Hi Ray, thanks so much for doing this. A couple quick questions: 1) Are any of these guys must-sells at the moment? Patrick Sandoval (definitely want to unload), Ian Happ (meh skills so far), Javier Baez, Aaron Civale, Louie Varland, Erik Swanson. 2)What are your expectations, if any, for Bobby Dalbec and David Hamilton ROS? Putting up some nice, fantasy-relevant numbers in AAA, although the Red Sox seem to have made it clear they’d rather stick with the likes of Christian Arroyo and Pablo Reyes than give them a shot.
Ray Murphy
12:15
Lots of names there... I would definitely look to get away from Sandoval before you absorb any more ratio damage. I don't have a strong reaction to the rest, depends as always on your alternatives. (In particular, I hold out some hope for Baez.)

I don't think there's much runway for Dalbec in Boston, except maybe in the scenario where they have a major sell-off at the deadline. I don't think he's really viable as an MI, so the obstacle is Casas rather than Arroyo, and they're going to give Casas a lot of leeway (and he is coming around, so that's justified). Same for Hamilton, I think his path centers around a scenario where Hernandez and others are dealt in July and he's the next guy up.
PorkBellyJelly
12:20
Thank you for the input and guidance. AL-Only, 12 Team 4x4 Roto.  Lance Lynne. Is. Killing. Me. But, it's slim pickings out there.  If he's on my roster, I need to absorb whatever happens agains LAD this next start.  My ratios need help, but I also need Ws.  Do I pray for the return to form, or do I cut bait when the alternatives are arms like Gibson, Chirinos, Boyd, or a MR like Stephan?
Ray Murphy
12:20
Yeah, it's tough to keep absorbing that damage. If I liked your altneratives more, I'd be more willing to let you cut bait. But Gibson and Lynn have the same xERA, so I'm not sure he helps you at all. Lynn is getting BABIP'd and HR'd to death... it seems like those things can't continue, but the real question is whether they correct before your ratios are beyond repair. (This is how the house beats you in the casino.). I'd probably give Lynn a little longer, but I haven't been suffering the beatings like you have, so no judgment if you've had enough.
Koz
12:21
in a Scoresheet NL only league, who would you want for ROS for a possible (not guaranteed!) run for the playoffs….Jeff O’Neill or Brandon Nimmo?
Ray Murphy
12:21
Nimmo, easily. OBP and CF-worthy defense are both Scoresheet-gold.
FatBack
12:24
Roster Crunch in an AL-Only, 12-team 4x4 Roto.  May need to drop one of:  Olivares, Rooker, Julks or Duvall in the near future.  Alternatively could drop one of Moncada or Burger.  Which are the top three that you would drop? Thanks.
Ray Murphy
12:24
I'd drop Moncada, on the assumption/hope that the ChiSox are going to stop subjecting themselves to Moncada and FREE JAKE BURGER ALREADY! In all seriousness, Moncada is a mess right now, he was a mess last year, he was cromulent in 2021, stunk in the sprint season, and 2019 was a LONG time ago. Did I mention FREE JAKE BURGER yet?
Guest
12:26
Nolan Jones - Not sure low contact + extreme patience is a great recipe for fantasy stats but his swing looks great and he's playing in Coors.  Couple 475+ foot bombs this week along with a handful of stolen bags, what is your ROS outlook on him?
Ray Murphy
12:26
Yeah, we noted in today's PT TODAY that he got a nice PT bump due to the Blackmon injury. Have to figure he gets a long look while Blackmon is out, which our Big Hurt column said (also today) should be til the All-Star Break. So, figure Jones has a month to stake a claim. I mean, he should have more than that, but... Rockies gonna Rockie.
Guest
12:29
Is Kwan a better assest in H2H category leagues?  Do you think he will run enough and score enough runs to be above replacement level?
Ray Murphy
12:29
Sure, he's probably more helpful in a category format. I think what you're seeing is basically what you get. SBs are ahead of last year's pace, of course that's true for everyone. The real problem is he's lost 40 pts of BA over last year, though xBA said that last year was over his skis anyway. I wouldn't expect an SB surge. 25 more likely than 30 for the year. The runs sure are nice, though. (And would be even better if anyone besides Ramirez would drive him in now and then.)
Guest
12:34
Most recent article on Musgrove talks about him reducing slider usage.  While his other offerings are good, does this change in pitch mix limit his ceiling despite him still being able to offer good ratios and stable Ks?
Ray Murphy
12:34
Yes, this article in case anyone missed it, a nice deep dive by Brant Chesser. Brant didn't say this explicitly because we don't know for sure, but it sure looks to me like Musgrove is getting away from the slider because he's lost the feel for it. Brant clearly demonstrates that Musgrove was leaving it out of the plate more often, which is definitely not what you want. As Brant notes, he's making due with the reduced usage for now. I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't permanent, though. He could find the feel for it at any time, if that's really all that is wrong.... as opposed to "my elbow hurts when I throw the slider", which obviously would be troubling. But nobody's said that, either.
Bob
12:36
What do you expect for Jesús Sánchez ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:36
Couple of bombs since coming off the IL was nice to see, also seems like there have been a few more walks in that tiny sample. Our projection is 70% PT (good side of platoon, basically), .259 BA w/13 HR. That seems reasonable to me... I could be optimistic and take the over on the HR, but not confidently.
Sasha
12:39
Hey, Ray! Welcome to the chat!

I have two questions for you today pertaining to player preferences.

Who do you prefer more long-term?

1) Zach Neto or Edouard Julien

2) Tristian McKenzie or Andrew Painter

Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:39
I assume long-term is "beyond this year"? I haven't seen enough to deviate from our prospect ratings on the infielders... upon callup, Neto was an 8C and Julien a 7C.

For the pitchers... as promising as Painter is, he's essentially a mythical creature unless/until we find out his elbow is truly sound. I think you can get a lot of value out of a McKenzie while you're waiting for Painter to arrive healthy in the PHI rotation.
David
12:40
Ray, is Bryan Woo a "post hype" guy already?! I scooped him up a bunch in my leagues after his first start and was pleased to see his performance in his second one. (Woo hoo!)

Are you on the "Woo Train"??
Ray Murphy
12:40
Yeah, Brent was telling me over the weekend that he really liked what he saw from Woo in his first start, even though TEX destroyed him... TEX does that to people. Woo's second outing was better. Put us both on the "Woo Train".
aaron765
12:43
10-Team AL-Only 5x5 Rotti...Please rank these three SPs ROS: TajBradley, ClarkeSchmidt, AaronCivale. Trying to decide if Civale worth hanging on to ROS with Schmidt seemingly coming around? thanks, Ray
Ray Murphy
12:43
Close call between Schmidt and Civale for me. Gives me a chance to plug a site feature though... Schmidt's big problem early in the year was LH batters were raking him. But if you go to his PLink page , on the platoon splits tab you can see his L/R splits by month, and you can see that he's really improving in that area. That might be enough for me to give him the edge here.
Vince
12:45
Hi! 10-tm H2H category. With SPs so volatile, some fantasy analysts are suggesting grabbing quality middle relievers for ratios and Ks, rather than middling waiver wire SPs. Can you give me 2-3 non-closers you might target?
Ray Murphy
12:45
Michael King, Bryan Abreu are a couple of guys likely available in 10-tm mixed. Andres Munoz too, now that he's back. You want a couple of these factors in your favor: 1. big, preferably massive, K rate. 2. Good team context/offense. 3. Manager willing to use guys creatively. 4. Ability to work multi-innings.
Big J
12:47
N.Eovaldi vs LAA (Ohtani) or B.Garrett @ WSN (J.Irvin)?
Ray Murphy
12:47
If only we had a tool that could answer these questions with data. Oh wait, we do! Our SP Matchup Scores rate Eovaldi a 1.4, and Garrett a 1.1. Those are both good strong ratings, so maybe you've got door #3 available to sit so you can get both of these guys in?
Ron
12:48
Hi Ray,  Thanks for pinch hitting.  When does Grayson Rod get called back to BAL and will he exceed projections ($4 with 57 IP)?
Ray Murphy
12:48
Was just looking at this earlier today, as I'm holding Grayson (im)patiently in one league. Two starts in AAA, 5 BB/6 K in the first, then 1 BB/10 K in the second. Couple more like that should get him a ticket back to BAL.
John Shipley
12:49
Good day Ray. 5x5 AL only Keeper League. I have a glut of infielders to sort out. Can you please rank in order these six infielders for profitability in '23 and since all are eligible to be kept, for 2024. Thanks. Julien, Urias, Moncada, Arroyo, Espinal, Donaldson.
Ray Murphy
12:49
Urias, Julien, then maybe Donaldson if he doesn't crumble to dust by next year... then Espinal. You saw my feelings on Moncada above, and Arroyo is just filler. This is a glut in quantity, not quality.
DrDave
12:51
How do you see the saves situation in STL?  Will Helsley regain his status or will it continue to be a time share?  Players need defined roles and Marmol has failed to adhere to that which has caused Helsley and Gallagos to be less effective IMO.
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