JotCast | June 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat | 6/30/2026

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June 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Jack A

3:00

Hi Elliott:

The recent pull back in the price of Venture Global is disappointing. I have read some analysts who are predicting a glut in LNG in a couple of years. How high a price do you think VG can achieve, and over what time frame? And what are your thoughts about a glut of LNG in 2 or 3 years? Thank you

Elliott Gue

3:00

VG is a volatile stock and, as we've said before, it's the most aggressive recommendation we have. The stock basically tripled from its late 2025 lows to its peak in late March. As violent as the pullback has been it's kind of standard operating procedure for VG. There was talk of a glut of LNG in that 20027-28 time frame last year, but that was based on the view that growth in Qatari exports due to expansions of their North Field set to come on in 2026-27, temporarily overwhelming global growth in demand. Qatar exports LNG through the Strait of Hormuz so they've been offline. Further, their existing facilities were damaged in the early stages of the conflict -- Qatar's North Field is the same field as Iran's South Pars field just across an (invisible) maritime border. Due to sanctions, and the lack of technical expertise, Iran has struggled to develop South Pars while Qatar was full steam ahead with the North Field. The resulting pressure difference cause the migration of hydrocarbons from the Iranian to

Elliott Gue

3:00

the Qatari side of that maritime border. To say that situation irked the Iranians would be an understatement -- that's why that one one of the first placed they hit. The result of that is Qatar's existing LNG production has been damaged and their expansion plans have been pushed back by years (some may not happen at all). Australian LNG projects are mature and likely to see declining production (in aggregate). So any 2027-28 LNG oversupply vanished overnight. That leaves the US as the only game in town and if current trends persists VG will be the leader in US LNG exports by the early 2030s. As I said, VG is our most aggressive pick but that works both ways -- as we've said in the past this is the kind of stock that can go to $30+ if their growth runway pans out.

Christopher B.

3:02

Hello Roger Conrad
Any update on Jinko Solar ?

My way of thinking about Jinko Solar : this is company of the future and is trading below both BUY Under and Dream BUY Under Price targets. The World is experiencing record Heat and Droughts. Example here in the State of Delaware, there is a Drought Warning ; the state is 21 Inches short on Rain Fall. Plus Excessive Heat warning with Temperatures above
100 degrees Fahrenheit

I believe that if any company may produce better Solar Panels it would be Jinko Solar, but correct me if I am wrong?

PS Producing cheap solar panels is good for the World.

Roger Conrad

3:02

Hi Christopher. Jinko is number one in the world for solar cell efficiency and they are a leader in global markets, even in the US where First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) enjoys the protection of the president's tariffs.

Next earnings are August 14. And I expect to see more progress in R&D as well as orders. The company announced earlier this month that it has partnered with the Chinese government to build a 1 GW data center in Zhongwei.

The company's earnings are still being affected negatively in the near-term by global oversupply. But that does appear to be rationalizing. And I view the US-listed ADS as a buy at this price for patient investors. Solar and natural gas are where the investment is in electricity generation. And Jinko has staying power to outlast this downturn.

Thomas C.

3:28

Good Morning,

Here's my question for today's chat: Aren't we experiencing significant permanent oil demand destruction, which the recent war excellerated, especially from China, because of their emphasis on cheap EV's? Oil largest use is in transportation and China is selling their cheap EV's around the world. Therefore shouldn't our energy focus be more on natural gas, uranium, and renewables? Thanks

Elliott Gue

3:28

We're not seeing oil demand destruction. Energy Institute (EI) came out with their Statistical Review of World Energy this morning (at about 3 AM Eastern...ask me how I know that). This is the most comprehensive annual review of global energy use broken down by source, we get all year. I'll be doing my Sunday Deep Dive on some of my thoughts about this release and the "energy transition" this coming weekend. Too much to cover in today's chat, but let me offer a few highlights. First, global oil demand reached a record high of over 103 million bbl/day in 2025, up about 1.320 million bbl/day from 2024. Chinese oil demand rose about 459,000 bbl/day, US oil demand was +253,000. OIl was the world's most important source of primary energy in 2025 accounting for just over one-third of total primary energy supply, followed by coal (27.7%), natural gas (a little over one-quarter). Combined the Big 3 -- oil, gas,coal -- accounted for a little over 86.23% of global energy supply. In 2005 the same three fuels accounted

Elliott Gue

3:28

for 89.6% of global energy supply , so they've lost less than 3.4% market share in 20 years. Solar accounts for less than 1.7% of global energy supply in 2025. Also, worth noting that global primary energy grew by 8.13 EJ in 2025 and 56.1% of that growth (4.56 exajoules) came from the same big 3 with almost one-quarter from oil alone. This doesn't mean that there aren't opportunities in renewables/nuclear and natgas (we cover these frequently in EIA). However, oil is the world's most important fuel and demand is growing, a trend that's likely to continue for at least the next 15-20 years. Also, note than only one-quarter of global oil demand comes from passenger vehicles with approximately another 25% from commercial/freight vehicles. The other 50% comes from industrial demand, power gen, chemicals, plastics, etc.

Mr. G

3:37

I guess that the vote was for AES to be acquired for the minuscule price of $15.00 a share, a PE of 7.63, while paying 4.81%. The PE is stupidly cheap, but there must be more than what meets the eye. So, while this seems to be now a done deal, we investors, including you, Roger, need to move on. Where to go? Where can we get better dividends and better growth?

As an aside, I've been with both of you from your Personal Finance days, an original subscriber since you both left, and have both enjoyed and prospered from your knowledge, insights, and recommendations through the years. While I subscribe to many of your focused offerings, I think one of the best is CUI+, which I don't see you promoting lately, but which offers a very balanced portfolio to invest in, which is very important. I think many of your readers and subscribers would benefit from this offering.

All the best to both of you, and to Sherry, who is a gift to both of you

Roger Conrad

3:37

Thank you for those kind words, and especially sticking with us when we went independent 14 years ago! Also thank you for the endorsement of CUI Plus, which is a balanced, stock-focused income and long-term growth portfolio spread over many sectors. Anyone who'd like a peak at it, please call Sherry at 877-302-0749, M-F, 9-5 ET.

Regarding AES, the merger has been approved by shareholders this, despite management basically going to ground the last few months. I think the prospect of an immediate payout was too tempting in the current environment, which has seen utilities sell off a bit and some of the data center hype cool.

I intend to hold AES to the close, which should be early next year, which should be a return of 8-10% percent including likely dividends. If this deal does fail, unlikely but possible, we will have a great deal of upside after the initial selloff. I will have 2 new picks in Conrad's Utility Investor, which will post Monday.

Jerry J.

3:41

Hi Elliot…
Your thoughts on Transocean.

Elliott Gue

3:41

I'm generally bullish on offshore drilling activity and rig utilization and I like RIG's acquisition of VAL earlier this year. VAL had 13 high-spec floaters whereas a sizable portion of RIG's fleet was older. RIG still has some leverage headwinds and had to assume more than $1 billion in VAL debt as part of the deal. Generally, like many energy stocks, RIG is still reeling from the knee-jerk Iran headlines, but it's a name we'd consider once the dust settles. My view remains the power of the long term CAPEX cycle will be impressive,

Denisimo

3:43

A thought for the future. Unless I'm mistaken, there seems to be a new issue of Energy & Income Advisor the morning of these Capitalist Times Chats. It would be nice to maybe have a day or two to review your 'new thoughts' prior to the chat. Just thinkin'.

Roger Conrad

3:43

Hi Denisimo. Understood and noted. We held off on this issue of EIA a bit deeper into month than usual, mainly to give the "De-Escalation" scenario a little more time to play out in share prices.

As you know, we talked about an agreement to open the Strait--the de-escalation scenario--as a likely outcome at some point. And Elliott highlighted three permanent impacts of Operation Epic Fury fallout in the special issue April 28--actually the second issue we did that month--that we've highlighted in detail in the issue that posted today.

Monroe J

3:48

The Sabre Health Care REIT stock symbol is SBRA

Roger Conrad

3:48

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I will look at it more closely. The fact the dividend has been the same 30 cents per quarter since it was cut during the pandemic year is a little bit of a red flag in my view. But coverage of 1.3X looks adequate for the dividend. And the expansion into SHOP is similar to what LTC Properties is doing. The Canada exposure is interesting as well.

Jack A

3:50

Hi Elliott: One source for the predicted increase in natural gas use is the construction of AI data centers. But now Elon Musk is talking about putting them in space, powered by the sun.... Although it's cold in space, and the enrgy required to cool the centers will be less, it's hard for me to imagine that the imense amount of enrgy required to power these centers can be provided by solar panels. Can I have your thoughts as to whether you think data centers in space will provide serious competition to the increased use of natural gas predicted with the build out of data centers in the United States...

Elliott Gue

3:50

Elon Musk tends to be more of a visionary and he thinks long-term. However, I don't see data centers in space as a serious competitor to land-based data centers over any time frame that the market will start discounting any time soon. I'd also saw that while data centers are one important facet of the gas growth story, that's really only one part of it. LNG export growth are (I'd argue) probably a more immediate growth driver, particularly with what's happened to Qatar. Also, what gets very little attention, is growing US industrial gas demand for things as diverse as fertilizer chemical production and industrial energy demand. One thing we're seeing is that heavy industry is fleeing Europe and relocating to the US. I think that, too, is underappreciated.

Susan P

3:58

Elliott wrote a great article on Expand Energy for Seeking Alpha. It wasn't "new info" for EIA readers, but it was nice of you to share your thoughts with that audience. I have been itching to pull the trigger and buy EXE (up some 4% as of 3:30 today). In it's early years after the name change, it had more frequent "variable" dividends. It still has had one in the the last two years, along with it regular dividends. Do you expect a generous dividend approach by management if nat gas hits your $4/MMBtu longer term price level and/or even if it's the $3.50ish range. Thanks much for your thoughts.

Elliott Gue

3:58

Thanks for the kind comments. Every now and again I like to publish something over there on SA though I write less now there than I used to because they are more aggressive with the paywall. My sense from EXE is that they feel they may not be getting enough "credit" in the stock market for variable divs. In fact, that's something we've heard from a number of E&Ps who went that route in recent years. I think what you may see is a higher base dividend in future (set at level they can defend even when gas prices are lower) supplemented by buybacks and maybe the more occasional variable dividend.

Jimmy

4:13

Three of my most embarassing losers are AQN, CLF and CRGY. Is it time to cut these dogs ?

Roger Conrad

4:13

Hi Jimmy. Oftentimes when you start thinking of a stock you own as embarrassing, it's a pretty good sign a bottom is in. Algonquin, for example, is a utility comeback story. It's about half the price it traded in mid-2022 but it is well off the lows of early 2025 as its plan to de-leverage and focus on regulated utility business has been unfolding. I expect to see more progress with Q2 results in mid-August. And I ultimately look for a return to dividend growth and a double-digit share price. in the meantime, it's paying a steady 4.4%. A loser for sure so far, but with an underlying business that is getting stronger.

Crescent Energy is up about 18% year to date. We favor other oil and gas companies in Energy and Income Advisor. But this one is going to follow the price of oil and gas--and we think that will be up the next few years regardless of what happens in the Persian Gulf.

Cleveland Cliffs doesn't pay a dividend, so you're not getting paid to own it. It's cheap on a valuation basis.

Roger Conrad

4:13

But it's a turnaround story as well and may take some patience to own.

Michael L.

4:18

Gentlemen,

Would you please give me your thoughts on the 12 month strip, how you think it might change and the price outlook for NAT GAS?

Elliott Gue

4:18

Thanks for the question. The strip for the final 5 months of 2026 is about $3.38 and for 2027 it's closer to $3.50. Right now gas storage in the US is a little above normal. Last winter we saw extreme cold followed by a "heater" through the second half of February and into April. This may be partly due to the shift towards El Nino conditions we've seen in recent months that often results in warmer-than-average winters. In addition we saw a fairly intense LNG terminal maintenance schedule -- they've been running those facilities pretty hard this year. The market, however, remains concerned about the potential for next winter to be warmer than normal. In my view, a lot of the bad news is already in the price of gas. We have seen a sizable speculative short position in the futures right now even as hot weather, producer discipline and the end of LNG maintenance schedules should help. Intermediate to long term you have the steady, building tailwinds of elevated gas-fired electricity generation, LNG export growth

Elliott Gue

4:18

and industrial demand growth. To support all that demand/export growth I think you need long-term gas prices near $4.00/MMBtu or higher.

Don C

4:22

Roger—for many years, I have had NEE, D, and DUK as the core of my utility holdings. With NEE and D merging, could you recommend another blue chip utility to diversify my ute holdings? Thanks for all that you and Elliott do. I believe that I have been following you for 36 years.

Roger Conrad

4:22

Thank you Don! 36 years pretty much spans my entire career, except for a few years in the 1980s when I worked with Richard Band, a good man. We do appreciate it!

I like the Dominion/NextEra merger a lot. Unfortunately, Duke Energy and Southern Company--which share a lot their strengths--have become fairly expensive at this point. And so are most of the high quality electric utilities. One exception would be Eversource Energy (NYSE: ES), the dominant utility in New England. The company is supposed to close its sale of Aquarion Water today, which will take a huge bite out of debt. I'll have two more fresh buys in the Conrad's Utility Investor issue that posts Monday.

Ben F

4:27

Good morning from Uruguay - Thoughts on Franco Nevada?

Elliott Gue

4:27

Good afternoon! I generally like the precious metals royalty and streaming companies -- the two I've recommended in Free Market Speculator over the years are FNV and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM). We also recommended GLD (Gold) and SLV (Silver) specifically. Generally, I did recommend taking partial profits on all of these recommendations, from late last year into February-March of 2026. This was solely due to the parabolic move we saw in, particularly, silver earlier this year. Generally, the path of FNV, WPM and pretty much every gold/silver producer or royalty streaming company is going to follow what we see in the metals. My base case view is that we haven't seen the ultimate top of the precious metals bull market. It's a similar set-up to what we saw in the mid 70s -- there was a rapid run-up then a significant pullback and consolidation followed by a final run into 1980. That final run lies ahead (in my view) but we may need to see some more consolidation -- backing and filling -- before these markets

Elliott Gue

4:27

are set up for that. Like the mid 70s that could easily take 1 or 2 years. SO, what I am recommending in the services is to hold on to some of the precious metals exposure (we till also have a smallish position in WPM) that we'd look to add to once the sector stabilizes. It's not really a company-specific issue -- both FNC and WPM are well run and executing well -- it's a commodity cycle issue right now.

Mike C

4:29

Thanks for holding these! They're something I've come to look forward to, and represent a huge service! A question for Elliott - Can you send out a list of all open trades in CT-Trader one of these days?

Elliott Gue

4:29

Thanks for attending! We enjoy the chats as well. Yes, I will have an update out this coming weekend and a rundown of the open trades out in the next week or two.

Dan N

4:34

I share Frank's and Brian's concern about how SpaceX could disrupt wireless. I understand (I think) some of the challenge in launching a standalone new wireless service, but what concerns me is the complete asymmetry in terms of financing resources.

Walmart and Amazon disrupted and destroyed numerous competitors and industries, and I think the common thread for how they did so is more than just scale: they had access to cash and more cash, and in the case of Amazon, they also had an investor base that apparently bought the argument for decades that they shouldn't worry about profit: as long as they would come to dominate the business space they would completely disrupt, profits would eventually appear. (No, really, we promise...)

With a trillion dollar market cap and an ability to sell shares and raise funds in ways the legacy carriers cannot, I could easily see the carriers getting disrupted -- even if it doesn't make obvious business sense. Lots of things about SpaceX and its valuation make no sense

Roger Conrad

4:34

Hi Dan. Obviously, this is the fear motivating sellers of these three stocks. I guess I would say Charlie Ergen was a pretty good fund raiser when he bought all that wireless spectrum in the previous decade. What he wound up with was a lot of debt for not much market share--at which time he called in a favor from the White House who called off the regulators. And then he sold.

I would also say Amazon had a superior technology to bring to the consumer that arguably raised standards of living: Cheap online shopping that not only cut consumers' costs but eliminated the need to go somewhere to buy and was faster as well.

All satellite providers can offer wireless customers is a different way of doing the same thing--and that historically has been far less reliable and more expensive. The Big 3 telecoms already cover nearly 100% of the US with 5G wireless and a growing piece of it with fiber. And they're deploying arguably better AI (Google etc) than SpaceX has access to.

Roger Conrad

4:36

Yes SpaceX has raised a lot of money. A good piece of that is debt--and the company at the IPO already had $31 bil plus of some form of obligations. It's also losing a great deal of money, unlike TMUS, T and VZ which are increasing free cash flow.

4:38

Earlier in this chat, I postulated this rumor mill coming out of SpaceX is the result of the Big 3 refusing to give Musk spectrum access at a bargain counter price. We'll see what happens in the coming weeks. But I suspect there will be some kind of deal that's amicable to all. Mainly, if SpaceX goes all in competing for consumer wireless accounts, it's not going to have anything left to build that space fleet or get people to Mars.

Susan P

4:51

Just read Elliott's reference to the nat gas futures short position. I have long wondered how either of you use, or don't use, data attempting to capture short positions. I think Roger referenced a 5%+ level was needed for him to pay much attention. And, not sure if the short interest or the short float % or the short ratio is preferable IF monitored by either of you. Tankers of thanks.

Elliott Gue

4:51

Thanks for the question. Yes, it's something I monitor. Every week, the CFTC releases its Commitment of Traders report, usually on Friday afternoon. I look at it over the weekend. Generally I like to look at the legacy report -- this divides traders into commercials and non-commercials. I look at the net positions (gross longs less gross shorts) as well as the gross short positions. I also create 104-week and 156-week z-scores, which show how many standard deviations the current reading is relative to the 2 and 3-year mean. I follow about 15 markets -- energy (of course), agricultural commodities (wheat, corn, beans, lean hogs, live cattle, etc), currencies (euro, cable, aussie, loonie and yen), the metals (base and precious) and stock indices. Generally, what I look for is either a stretched position (+1.5+ or -1.5 or lower) Z-scores or a big shift week over week. I then look at the disaggregated report for financial futures (bonds, notes, bills, S&P, Nasdaq, Russell, etc) looking for the same thing in

Elliott Gue

4:51

leveraged funds mainly. I do find it quite useful. I referenced gas earlier. For oil, what we saw i that the speculators were very bullish WTI back ion March, got trapped as oil turned and are now capitulating on the downside. I suspect that's what's driving the severity of the sell-off we've seen in crude. Gas speculators were very bearish a few weeks ago and still near extreme at a -1.25 zscore. Some other random examples I am watching: Cable (British pound) is another market at an extreme (-1.99 zscore) with the pound basically challenging technical support (I'd tend to look for a reversal higher there). Silver is getting close to an extreme spec short -1.40 and the grains are interesting -- we had extreme longs back in May, and now the speculators have shifted back to the short side though we're not quite to an extreme yet. Also the Nasdaq 100 is interesting at -2.03 z-score. As I mentioned in my Sunday Deep Dive video last weekend, I don't find the stock data as useful as for commodities, it still would

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