JotCast | June 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat | 6/30/2026

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June 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Jack A

6:01

Hi Elliott: Energy Transfer has made a nice recovery from its hit many years ago when it reduced its dividend - as you predicted. But watching its recent stock performance is like watching paint dry. And it only increased its dividend by one cent in the last year. Although it pays a nice dividend, what do you see going forward in its stock price? Thank you.

Roger Conrad

6:01

Hi Jack. Boring is often best in the dividend stock world. The important thing is Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is finding a lot of ways to grow cash flow and by extension dividends--much of it in support of US energy exports. I noticed some air come out of the stock price when management said it was putting the Lake Charles LNG export project on hold for now--noting it had other opportunities with far less risk. That sounded good to me, though maybe some saw it as too timid. But I'm very comfortable owning this stock. And a 20% gain year to date isn't too shabby either.

Jon

6:15

Seems like the market may have lost track of the acquisition of Chart by BKR. This seems even more valuable today when they first announced the takeover. Your price target for BKR seems to suggest it is currently a fairly to a little overvalued. What is the basis for your valuation and what would lead you to increase (or decrease) your target?

Elliott Gue

6:15

We like BKR and the addition of a market leading cryogenic capability to BKR's existing position in turbines/compression was a solid move. Our buy under prices aren't targets, more guides as to where we'd recommend buying the stock. If we felt BKR were fairly or overvalued we'd cut it to a Hold or recommend taking at least some partial profits. Roger and I have discussed the buy under prices a good deal over the past three months and our view has basically been to be conservative about raising buy under prices when energy stocks are soaring. Our view has been, and remains, that geopolitical spikes are generally short-lived. In this case there was a real impact on supply-demand conditions, but the market still got overextended on that in the short term. Our view has been than we'd see a knee-jerk sell-off on deescalation (that's what's happening right now) and that the dip would be an opportunity to buy as the longer-term fundamentals remain solid and the supercycle is still "on." Now, as the geopolitical

Elliott Gue

6:15

"Whiplash" trade plays out in the next few weeks, we will likely look to revise buy under targets. We just didn't want to chase that rally by raising targets aggressively and risk readers getting whipsawed.

Robert P

6:28

What is your thoughts on Occidental OXY with a new CEO?

Elliott Gue

6:28

OXY is a solid producer and I liked their former CEO also, Vicki Hollub. While the timing of the Anadarko buy wasn't great obviously, she bought valuable acreage and I think that's also true of Crownrock. I would assume the new CEO, a long-time veteran of OXY, will continue with the company's CAPEX discipline and debt reduction strategy. I just think there are better stocks to buy here. On th large cap side of things, XOM is a quality operator with the best production growth profile. On the smaller side, we still like PR, which offers quality acreage in the Permian and an industry-leading dividend.

Lawman

6:33

Your take on Flotek (FTK)

Elliott Gue

6:33

Not a name we've recommended as a long-term holding but it has popped up on my screens recently as a possible trade. Historically, oilfield chemicals, which is a solid business for which we got some positive read-across from names ,ike SLB/WFRD/HAL last quarter. They're also jumping into the data analytics game which, I suspect, is what's been catching the markets attention lately. This is a solid growth market and the stock has a hefty short interest up around 15% of the float. That stock has gone through some death-defying dives in the past, which gives me pause but it's definitely an interesting trade to watch.

Lawman

6:36

Do you like Cigna and some of the other health care providers?

Elliott Gue

6:36

I haven't recommended Cigna in a long while. In my Free Market Speculator service I did just add Cardinal Health (CAH) last week and, as I outlined in my Sunday Deep Dive Video on Substack last weekend, healthcare is an area where I'm seeing a lot of opportunities (and some positive momentum). Also recommended MRK as a trade in my options service.

Jack A

6:38

I've been a subscriber to your financial newsletters for many years, and have done well. Thank you. But over the years you guys have increased your number of publications and it's hard to keep track of all your thoughts and recommendations. What about creating an ETF where the recommendations of both of you can be expressed in one location, and you can benefit from the collection of management fees, which I would gladly pay? This way, I don't have to feel I'm missing out by not subscribing to all your publications.... Thanks.

Roger Conrad

6:38

Hi Jack. Thank you for the suggestion.

I would agree launching an ETF even two based on our strategies would be something in our wheelhouse. I think we could offer a lot of value.

What we would need to do that would be a sponsor to handle the back office, raise the capital etc. If you know of a large enough money management firm with interest, we're happy to entertain offers.

Phil

6:45

i’ve noticed that Suburban Propane’s price (SPH) has recently dropped back to within a point of your dream buy price. I’m tempted by the ample dividend but wonder whether the stock is affected by the Iran situation. Many thanks for these very helpful chats.

Roger Conrad

6:45

Hi Phil. The spike in the price of oil following Operation Epic Fury should not have affected Suburban Propane. Neither should the subsequent drop. The company's main business is distributing propane--which is a natural gas liquid. and it passes the wholesale cost of propane along to its customers pretty much dollar for dollar. Cash flow is affected by demand, which in turn is heavily impacted by weather. The fiscal year ends Sept 30 and the company essentially makes all of its money in FYQ1 (end Dec 31) and FYQ2 (end Mar 31), which is the heating season. Earnings are also affected by cost controls and debt reduction. The good news is results through FYQ2 were pretty much in line with guidance, which means full year results are likely to be as well. And that means operating cash flow covering CAPEX and the dividend with room to spare.

I suspect the stock has been affected negatively by some selling of dividend stocks--following the Federal Reserve's removal of the rate cut bias from its policy statement.

Roger Conrad

6:47

It could also be taking on some water from selling of energy stocks and MLPs--since that often happens when oil and gas prices fall though the actual company earnings and dividends are not affected. But I would not expect permanent impact.

Dave

6:51

Hi Roger -- could I ask for your thoughts on Honeywell and Honeywell Aerospace following the recent spinoff? Thanks!

Roger Conrad

6:51

Hi Dave. I haven't looked much at the Honeywell situation to date. But thank you for bringing it to my attention.
HON releases Q2 results July 23 and the newly spun off Honeywell Aerospace (NSDQ: HONA) should around the same time. HON is a possible CUI Plus stock, HONA is not currently paying a dividend.

Lawman

6:51

Trump seems to favor nuclear energy. Are there any companies other than CCJ you think are good plays on the nuclear theme? Thoughts on PALAF, for example.

Elliott Gue

6:51

We generally shy away from the small and mid-sized uranium names except, perhaps, when we're in a more speculative stage of the cycle. CCJ is the most investable uranium play in our view and they give you plenty of leverage to the uranium/nuclear story without having to go too far out the risk curve.

Lawman

6:56

Are you buyers on any of the high flying comanies such as NVDA, MU, AMZN, GOOGL, META, or AAPL, or do you think theses stocks are in a bubble that is likely to pop?

Elliott Gue

6:56

I did my Sunday Deep Dive Video over on Substack addressing just this issue. Here's the link: https://open.substack.com/pub/freemarketspeculator/p/a-hidden-bull-mar...

At any rate, the Mag 7 names have lagged the market since October 29, 2025. I doubt that was the peak for the group on either an absolute or relative basis. Much like the late 1990s, we got several vicious corrections in names like CSCO in 1997 and 1998 before the ultimate peak in 2000. And these stocks aren't even close to as expensive as CSCO in 2000 either. So, I think that while this may end up in a bubble, we're not there yet. I don't, however, recommend any of the Mag 7 names in the services (we have a trade in NVDA in my options service). We do have exposure to AI in Free Market Speculator via a few names including some recent additions.

Lawman

6:58

Which sectors of the market do you find are most attarctive to buy at this time?

Elliott Gue

6:58

Healthcare and Industrials are showing a lot of momentum right now and I've added to these groups in Free Market Speculator since late 2025. Also smaller financials (regional banks). The value play is energy -- as we've discussed I think we're seeing the de-escalation trade we've been warning about play out and as that fades we're going to see a tremendous buying opportunity in the group. I suspect that may play out through Q2 earnings season in July.

Robert P

7:01

Hi Roger, I’m writing to get your take on ARE. I’d like to know if it’s a good time to increase my current position—on which I’m sitting on a 50% loss—by using a dollar-cost averaging strategy. The company has recently received a couple of rating upgrades and won several industry excellence awards. On the other hand, I don’t see any operational issues regarding property upgrades or any concerning financial matters. Do you see any signs that would justify reinvesting?

Roger Conrad

7:01

Hi Robert. I don't think you ever want to double down on a fallen stock just to average down. The only question should be where will this stock go from here.

Alexandria REIT has been a losing stock for me as well. But my view is the underlying business has reached a bottom this year, with occupancy stabilizing and the REIT now reliant on stronger tenants at its "campus" facilities. The Biotech sector continues to face some pretty severe headwinds. But the stock even after the selling today is still up around 11% year to date and appears to have bottomed as well. This is the best in class of a battered real estate sector. I think we'll more signs of recovery with Q2 results on August 3. And I think this one is headed back to a triple digit share price eventually--though it will take patience to ride it there. The dividend of roughly 5.5% is safe.

Dan N

7:08

Do you think the announced $17.5B in gov't loans to support utilities in building new Westinghouse nuclear plants will move the needle in prompting new construction? Are there eligible utes who have given strong signals they plan to participate? I am neutral on nuclear as an energy source; my skepticism is that the choice to build new nuclear reactors is a decade-long, expensive commitment for which the capital could have been used for low cost, short devo cycle solar and storage that have greater certainty for costs and development timeline.

Roger Conrad

7:08

They certainly have the potential the help. But the problem for nuclear power plant EPCs (engineering, procurement, construction)--even the leader Westinghouse--is there's no nuclear plant design (large or SMR) that a utility can take to its regulators and investors and say with any assurance here's what it costs, and here's how long it will take to build.

Everyone knows what it took for Southern Company to get Vogtle 3 and 4 up and running. Everyone knows they can build equivalent natural gas and solar generating capacity without that risk. So while utilities really want to place orders, they literally can't until they can answer those questions. They'll take the federal government's money--Duke and others are just for keeping currently operating nuclear plants in service. But they have to be able to lock in the cost and time to build. That may happen. It hasn't yet.

Guest

7:13

Hi Roger: In last month's webcast you addressed that because MPC is the controlling shareholder of MPLX, investors were at one time concerned of a "take under". You mentioned that concept today in the new EIA on page 12 about USAC with ET. Was does a "take under" mean? And under what circumstances would MPC do that with MPLX? Thanks! Barry

Roger Conrad

7:13

A take under is basically a takeover where the acquirer has all the leverage. In the energy business, it means forcing a transaction at a low point for the cycle. There were scores of such deals in the previous decade, most of them general partners fully privatizing their limited partners. And the prices paid were well below where the targets had traded at the top of the previous cycle, which was 2014.

In MPLX' case, Marathon Petroleum has always owned well over 50% as general partner. Energy Transfer is general partner of USAC. It owns a lesser stake but nonetheless is a controlling shareholder.

Take unders get harder to impossible to pull off when the up cycle picks up steam. I think we're well past that point in the energy sector. So the danger of a take under is very low for both USAC and MPLX.

Dan N

7:19

I don't believe GWRS has yet been added to the coverage universe. Since we first brought it up in the chats, the share price has sunk to around 7 and it's yielding a lot more than most US water utes. Any thoughts on the share price drop? Any cautions in the dividend sustainability picture?

Roger Conrad

7:19

As you know, I cover a very large number of companies. So as a rule, I generally add only when one drops off--usually through a merger. We're getting close to that with a number of companies, including AES. So when that happens, I'll consider GWRS.

As for thoughts on the shares dropping, we've seen weakness in water stocks, utilities and dividend stocks in general since the Fed dropped the easing bias from its policy statement. I actually think a more restrictive policy on inflation will be a net positive for these stocks eventually. But for now it's causing weakness.

GWRS is expected to release earnings around August 13. And I don't see any reason what they post won't match up with guidance and support the dividend and balance sheet--as Q1 results did.

Jon

7:23

Hi. Do you think Peyto (1) will truly benefit from LNG exports from the west coast of Canada and (2) has any chance of a takeover (given the buyout of ARC)? Any reason to like this one more or less than OVV (which of course has more exposure to U.S. oil)? Thanks!

Roger Conrad

7:23

Hi Jon. Yes. Earlier this month, Peyto signed a 10-year natural gas supply agreement with Centrica Plc of the UK, and it's substantial at 50,000 MMBTU per day. I think it will basically be able to sell all it wants to through export markets. It's still a very low cost and reliable gas provider. I think it could also be a takeover as ARC is, possibly by Ovintiv--the former Encana, which is a much larger company. Peyto is the pure Canada gas play. But I think all oil and gas producers in North America have been permanently advantaged by Operation Epic Fury fallout.

Guest

7:34

Thoughts on National Energy Services (NESR) and Archrock (AROC).

Roger Conrad

7:34

Archrock is a name we've considered covering, especially the dividend has started to increase. Like USAC--which has a strong sponsor in Energy Transfer and a much higher yield--AROC is in the compression business. And that's essential infrastructure as more gas is used for data centers and export. This business does fundamentally depend on volumes, which makes it cyclical. And it typically does best at the top of a market cycle, rather than when shale discipline is in force as it is now. So there should be more upside, including from a possible takeover. But at this point, I prefer USAC in the space with its ET connection and higher yield.
NESR does not pay a dividend--it's also dependent on activity and therefore vulnerable to lower prices that restrain it. Again, we prefer SLB and BKR at this time in the services space.

Guest

7:38

Roger, southern company’s dividend hike the last couple years has been an uninspiring 2 to 3%. Any chance that will get better down the road?

Roger Conrad

7:38

That's the bet, now that the Vogtle project is behind them. I was a little surprised the boost for May was just the same 2 cents per quarter rate of the past decade. Two reasons they didn't ramp it up the rate this year could be (1) the fact that interest rates have remained higher for longer and (2) they have such a huge CAPEX opportunity as their system connects data centers and other reshoring industry to the Southeast. That's one reason I haven't raised our max entry point for Southern this year. I do think the dividend growth rate will accelerate. And this is a very strong company.

Lawman

7:39

Is CPK a buy?

Roger Conrad

7:39

Great company with a clear growth trajectory--a little expensive to buy at this point.

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