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June 27 2022 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Happy chat-Monday! Great time of year as we approach the halfway point ... lotsa lotsa questions sitting here for me. Will get to all that I can in the next hour (plus a bit, maybe?). Thanks for dropping in!
Eddie
12:03
Winker or Yepez ROS? Jeremy Pena or Luis Garcia (WAS) ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:03
Winker; PT more secure and seems he was starting to come out of the funk before the brouhaha yesterday. And for the similar reasons, I'd also go Peña, though lots of things to like on García this time around.
zizek
12:07
What do you expect ROS for Oneil Cruz?
Brent Hershey
12:07
Realistically ... double-digit HR/SB; triple-digit exit velos; livable (in this era) BA (.230/.240); a huge reason to watch PIT. Non-zero chance that he exceeds those and is a difference-maker in some fantasy leagues.
Eddie
12:09
I need to replace Harper.  Please rank these OF's.  Kirilloff, J Sanchez, Carlson, E Olivares, Kwan and J Duran.
Brent Hershey
12:09
Kirilloff, Carlson, Sanchez <small gap> Olivares, Duran, Kwan. Secure PT should be the priority IMO.
Ron
12:10
Happy Monday, Brent.  Who is the best saves speculation ROS:  Dominic Leone, A.J. Minter, or Evan Phillips?
Brent Hershey
12:10
Leone, partially b/c ATL/LA seems more set with choosing one guy, and they have one right now. So can see a path for saves in SF is a bit easier. All are kinda long shots, though.
Will
12:12
I picked up  Aj Puk 1 month ago did i whiff?Thank you!
Brent Hershey
12:12
All depends. If you were looking for a short-term closer, then yes. If you have space to hold and wait to see what happens with OAK skills and/or trade deadline player movement, then no, not yet. Will say that his usage patterns does not seem like they are grooming him for the 9th inning at the moment.
Will
12:14
Is this a bump in the road for Nestor or is he this level? Thank you!
Brent Hershey
12:14
Natural regression and the league adjusting. He's (much) better than we (guess I should say "I") thought coming into the season; but not as nutso good as he was in Apr/May.
Rich
12:17
Hi Brent. Which pitcher would you rather roster ROS in redraft: Trevor Rogers or Alex Cobb?
Brent Hershey
12:17
Was set to say Rogers, but giving it a quick second look, didn't realize how far Cobb's skills had improved in 2022. Health always part of the equation, but wow, Cobb has taken a step forward and not been rewarded yet. Cobb.
MiLB
12:20
Kyle Muller (LHP) is having a dominant year in Triple-A (2.96 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 4.3 Cmd, 25% K-BB%). 1) Short of injury, do you see ATL putting him in their rotation this season, demoting Anderson or Strider? AND 2) Do you see him being successful this year or next?
Brent Hershey
12:20
1) At this point, very little shot of demoting Anderson/Strider. Might change, but as of now can't see that. 2) More likely a future play than a current one. Some still have reliever projection on him.
RK
12:21
In a 5X5 head-to-head league with OBP instead of AVG, would you prefer Christopher Morel or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for the rest of this season?
Brent Hershey
12:21
Like what we've seen with Morel, but Lourdes Jr. is much safer. Track record, much better lineup, hit through an early-season slump.
Max’s Mom
12:25
Max Muncy’s PX over the past month is just 74, but his xPX is 182 (his HctX over that period is 122). Could you please explain the disparity between his PX and xPX? Is it a reason to expect better things from Muncy ROS?
Brent Hershey
12:25
Yep ... broad-brush, PX is outcomes based; xPX is skills-based. So when things like HR/F rate AND BABIP are way below career averages, the results (hits, extra base power, etc) are not going to be there. So, on just those terms, it IS reason to expect better things, as research has shown that HR/F and BABIP regress to career norms over a larger sample. Can't ignore his injury, though, and that would be one caveat that obviously those metrics are not "including". But yes, numbers should improve ROS.
Jake from Iowa
12:30
Hey Brent! 10 team AL 4x4 using OBP. I need steals and saves. Key hitters available are Josh Smith, Olivares,Oscar Gonzales, Josh Lowe, Riley Greene, kirillov,jarred Duran and Paredes.  Pitchers are Trivino, Morgan,puk and Stanek. How would you rank them. Thanks for the chat!  One last question, would you dump Berrios at this point. He is killing my ERA!
Brent Hershey
12:30
Jake -- as a former short-term resident, say hello to Iowa for me! Hitters ranked with steals emphasis (not ONLY for SB): Greene, Duran, Jsh Lowe, Kirilloff, Olivares, Paredes, Smith, Gonzales. Save specs: Puk/Trivino/Stanek/Morgan. Those pitchers much less likely to "hit" than the position players.
Greg
12:31
Good morning Brent and as always, thanks for the great advise. I'm a Red Sox fan and wanted your opinion on Brayan Bello-think he is up soon and what what will his value be? Also, what do you think the Red Sox do at the trade deadline? Seems like pitching is a need again this year...
Brent Hershey
12:31
Bello - not sure it's soon, but could see him in the second half. Given the hope that Sale makes it back, yes, the bullpen would seem to be a need again.
Todd
12:33
In a redraft format, would you be trying to deal George Kirby? Acknowledging the impending innings limit.
Brent Hershey
12:33
Willing? Yes .... Trying? Definitely depends on things like where you team is now, its needs, etc. IOW, could be that just hanging onto Kirby, planning on banking all that he has to give even if it runs out before September, could be the best play you could make. IOW, ride it, figure out his "replacement" later. Good luck!
Koz
12:37
thanks for the chat, as always....Lucas Giolito is having quite a run of bad luck...or is it hmmmm?  What's going on here?
Brent Hershey
12:37
Yeah, his June starts -- it's part bad luck for sure, but that nose diving K rate / swinging strikes is concerning, no doubt. Plus side is that velo is fine; I'd be checking things like changes in pitch mix/movement if I wasn't in the middle of a chat. Perplexing for sure.
RK
12:39
Would you drop any or all of the following for Alex Cobb, and which would you be most willing to drop -- C. Morel, Muncy, Trevor Rogers? Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:39
Mentioned yes to Rogers above. Would probably be most willing to drop Muncy, but this question screams for more context (have no idea what shape your offense or pitching is in).
Andrew
12:41
5x5 dynasty and I need some power numbers. Would you drop $11 Dalbec for Seth Brown? I definitely don't see me keeping Dalbec at this point. Thank you.
Brent Hershey
12:41
Yes, especially given the speed we've seen Brown contribute. The Statcast data is encouraging, and I think there's some BA upside, as well.
Guest
12:43
Hey Brent.  Who will have biggest impact if any in 2022 (Lewin Diaz, Miguel Vargas, Jose Barrero)?  Thx
Brent Hershey
12:43
While I'm interested to see that Vargas is playing some OF, I still tend to think LA is going to fix problems from outside the org. Not sure Diaz has a spot waiting for him; but feel like Barrero does, and is close enough to take it at some point this year. Unless he completely flails, CIN will likely have him in there once he gets the call for the ROS. So I'm leaning Barrero
Sony
12:43
How good is Jeffery Springs? Can I rely on him as a SP4-5 in a 12 team mixed?
Brent Hershey
12:43
Yes, with those expectations. Tampa!
Koz
12:45
I've always been a fan of Joe Ryan, and have been pulling for him.  Having said that...is the bloom coming off the rose, or do you think he has staying power for the rotation?
Brent Hershey
12:45
I think he has staying power as a mid-rotation guy; no higher. Always had the deception that will give him that little "extra" to make his stuff play up. Which will keep him in the rotation.
Brian K
12:48
Hi Brent, great work with the open forum platform. I'm in a 5X5 redraft currently in first. I have an opportunity to acquire Cole in exchange for Fried and Mountcastle. Your Thoughts?
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