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Justin Mason Baseball Chat
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Pedro
10:00
Should be a slow chat.  No big name starters have changed teams or leagues in the last 48 hours stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes
Justin Mason
10:00
Definitely a good time to have a chat lol. Maybe we get some other signings before it is over.
Guest
10:01
Keeper Q: 12 teamer (deep, plays like a 14) with pitching at a premium (best guys kept, a lot of top hitters kept too). Three options:
Keeper Q: 12 teamer (deep, plays like a 14) where pitching is premium (top guys are kept so it thins out quickly). Three options:
  1. Keep Sandy as a 1st rounder for 2023 only (tbd draft order)
  2. "Franchise" Sandy as a 3rd rounder, but he's locked in as my 3rd every year for the next three years (no exceptions)
  3. Throw Sandy back, keep Luis Castillo as a 3rd rounder for 2023 only
Justin Mason
10:02
I think I would do option #2. In a league like this where SPs are at a premium, you don't get much safer than Sandy.
Matt
10:02
Not so much a question, but thoughts on the deGrom deal? Basically roulette, right? If he stays healthy, the Rangers could be good. If he doesn’t, they are still quite bad.
Justin Mason
10:02
It definitely has some risk, but I love the upside for them especially with how well that park plays for pitching. Now they need to get some bullpen help.
Buster's Good Friend Hunter
10:02
I've been hearing some analysts talk a lot about Ball% (1-Zone%) being meaningful for SP, but I am a little confused by the 2022 leaderboards. Corbin Burnes is in the bottom 15 for Ball% (high ball%) and Liam Hendriks/Dylan Cease are in the bottom 30. The other end of the list includes Steven Matz, Yu Darvish, Framber Valdez, and George Kirby. Is Ball% something you use? And if so, how do you use it in your analysis?
Justin Mason
10:04
I'll be honest, I have never heard of this. I will definitely look into it though. Never can have too many metrics to work with. I am a big fan of Zone metrics normally and Stuff+ (shoutout to Eno) and then my own eye test.
Ryan
10:04
How do you feel about 40 year old justin verlander pitching in cold weather new york
Justin Mason
10:05
I am not super worried about that. It is a good park to pitch in plus he will have the benefit of guys not having seen him much to start the year when it is cold. Health is the only worry with Verlander.
Kate
10:05
With Verlander out of Houston, do you expect the Stros to look at other starters?  Or will they just fall back on their depth now?  If the latter, that's helps Hunter Brown's situation quite a bit.
Justin Mason
10:06
I think the Astros may roll with what they have or pick up a swingman type. They have Brown who is definitely ready. I will be upgrading his projection later today.
Kate
10:07
Does Alzolay have a shot at starting the year off in position to get some saves?  Maybe not as "the guy", but as part of a committee?
10:08
Also on Alzolay, is he def in the pen?  Or will they give him one more chance to start?
Justin Mason
10:09
I think a lot of it will depend on if the Cubs add anyone in free agency. Personally, I think they should give him a chance to start, but the Cubs have been rumored to be one of the teams willing to spend this offseason and if they add a starter, he might be relegated to the pen.
That being said, he could be an interesting closer darkhorse considering the lack of options there.
Insert Witty Name Here
10:10
How do you see Trea Turner aging? Speed will obviously decrease, does his bat have enough thump to age well? Any comps you can think of?
Justin Mason
10:11
I think he will age fine. He has such a sweet swing that even if he loses some power, the average will continue to be there. I am interested to see what kind of park he signs in. The speed may drop at some point, but I don't think it completely falls off.
Kate
10:11
Eno mentioned on a recent pod that guys who take a long time between pitches could possibly be hurt more than others by the pitch clock.  Are you taking this into account in your SP ranks at all and, if so, who are some guys to fade in this regard?
Justin Mason
10:13
I am not really too worried about it. First we don't know how strict umpires will be about it. Second, pitchers will adjust. Maybe it is an issue in a pitchers first few outings, but they will all adjust.
Ben
10:13
Has there been a better pitcher than Scherzer who's spent this much of his career as the #2 in his own team's rotation? (2010-14 Tigers, under deGrom w/ the Mets, now Verlander
Justin Mason
10:15
Don't forget behind Anibal Sanchez in Washington too!joy
Kate
10:15
How do you think the Twins use Maeda this year coming off TJ?  Will they just let him go since this is his last year of control?
Justin Mason
10:16
I think they don't have much reason to protect him. That being said, I do not like drafting guys off of TJ, so he won't be on any of my teams.
Damian
10:16
Thoughts on Tyler ward? He was incredible pre and post injury, think he can do it again?
Justin Mason
10:16
I am assuming you mean Taylor Ward...
10:18
I think he is a really nice outfield option, but I am a little worried about where he will hit in the lineup when everyone is healthy. Hopefully fourth which is where he spent a lot of the late part of the season. There is a really nice approach and zone contact ability with power.
Kate
10:19
Based on the recent pod, you're pretty high on Singer.  His lack of a real third pitch and mediocre whiff rates don't give you any pause?
Justin Mason
10:19
Definitely needs to increase that third pitch usage, but I love the stuff. He will be a workhorse innings wise so he doesn't need high K-rates to get those strikeouts.
Pedro
10:20
I can keep Framber at $17 in an AL only 5x5.  He was great for me last year, but I am concerned about the heavy work load, plus all the innings he threw in the post-season.  Thoughts?
Justin Mason
10:21
I would keep him at 17. I have him as a top 25 SP in a mixed league and 7th in AL only. There is concern, but I think it is more to due with the high groundball rate and the "no shift" this year. That being said, I am still a big fan.
Kate
10:21
How confident are you that Gallo will land somewhere that gives him everyday ABs?
Justin Mason
10:22
Not extremely. At some point, you have to make contact. He will get a job, but I would guess it won't be a full time one.
Kate
10:23
Ezequiel Duran have a shot at the LF job in Texas?  Sounds like he's been playing some OF in winter ball to get ready.  If he does win a job, would you have any interest in him?
Justin Mason
10:24
He definitely could get a shot, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rangers sign someone else as well.
Rob Manfred's Participation Trophy
10:24
Hey Justin! Coke or Pepsi?
Justin Mason
10:24
I am a Pepsi guy for sure, but I will drink either. I have unfortunately moved to diet soda to lose weight.
BeauSox
10:25
What’s the most likely spot for Bryan Mata - high leverage relief or back end starter?
Justin Mason
10:25
I think he is a backend starter for now, but if he doesn't get the control reigned in, he will be a high leverage reliever.
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