You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Justin Mason Baseball Chat
powered byJotCast
Justin Mason
9:46
Will start at the top of the hour and if we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!
10:00
Here we go!
Steve
10:00
Is it fair to expect Tyler Anderson to retain most of the gains he made last year?
Justin Mason
10:01
I think it is fair to expect a fair amount of regression as he likely won't repeat the low strand rate and BABIP, but I don't think he regresses as far as our projection systems do. The hate on him seems a bit overblown and he is a value currently.
Jeff
10:01
With the Reyes signing: what percentage of total saves do Graterol/Hudson get in LA?
Justin Mason
10:03
I don't know that Reyes factors in a ton. I would expect Daniel Hudson and Evan Phillips to get the majority of the opportunities with Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia picking up a smaller part of the share as well. Pretty much a straight committee to start.
KevinT
10:03
Thinking about doing my first ME this year. How much of a correlation can you make from a DC 15 team draft to a ME. I have been listening to you and others for years, I understand the push up of pitching. Looking for other feedback or thoughts on the differences between a DC/OC and a ME. Thanks for all the work!
Justin Mason
10:07
You nailed the first part, which is starting pitching goes much higher. I would expect 2-4 SPs going in the first round in the main events where right now there aren't any currently. The second big thing is that ADP is much less useful. People just go get their guys. You can use the Main Event ADP in some of the later ones so I recommend if it is your first year, to draft as late as possible, but even then, take your guys even if it feels like you might be able to get them later. Huge upside guys get pushed up a ton. Both Witt and J-Rod were going in the top four rounds by the later drafts. Be aggressive on the guys you want, but don't be extremely risky either. People that win Main Event leagues rack up plate appearances and innings and often have a more boring looking team than you would expect.
KevinT
10:07
Beginning of the offseason, you were not loving 3B. Do you still feel that way? I am starting to see some opportunity with the mid-back end of 3B. I like Muncy and Chapman (strong counting stats for both with not horrible BA). Miranda seems like he could be a new Donaldson type player. McMahon had a very week counting stat profile for the number of homers. And Walker seems like a big upside play. Thoughts?
Justin Mason
10:09
I still think the totality of the 3B pool is weak overall, but I think it's depth is a little better than others do and better than like 2B is. I don't mind rolling with guys like Jordan Walker, Josh Jung, Justin Turner, or Jose Miranda.
KevinT
10:09
In a DC, I have identified Walker/Tovar/Vargas/Casas as a tier of upside players I want to attack given their ADP in the 15ish round. Do you have a preference (I know you like Walker) but is he your fav of that group? Any 1 you are avoiding?
Justin Mason
10:10
I think Walker is my favorite of the group followed by Miguel Vargas, Triston Casas, and Ezekiel Tovar if you are looking at upside. If you want a little more safety, I think Vargas falls to the back of the group because his playing time is less guaranteed.
KevinT
10:11
Something that is not discussed enough is "waiting on a position" in drafts. If we as drafters are going to "attack" certain positions, the inverse must be true and we have to wait for certain positions. Is there a position you feel comfortable drafting late as your starter?
Justin Mason
10:12
Absolutely! I am fine waiting on pitching, first base, and shortstop, but only to a point. While these positions have more depth than others, there are clear drop offs in all of them. I did a draft where I pushed the limits of SS too far and I regretted it. Waiting on a position is not the same as ignoring it.
Bingo Bango
10:13
If you pass on pitching in the first 4 rounds, who are you looking to target as your SP1 after pick 50? Does not taking a top-15 starter affect your decision (i.e., floor vs. upside)?
Justin Mason
10:14
Zach Wheeler, Julio Urias, Alex Manoah, Zac Gallen, and Luis Castillo. Typically if I do this, I will try and get two of these guys. This has been my preferred strategy so far this season. I really like loading up on hitting and then hammering pitching after the first four rounds.
Jeff
10:14
Who is your least favorite baseball player?
Justin Mason
10:15
As a Giants fan, I would say any Dodger, but I have a weird hatred for Carlos Correa just generally.
Cat
10:15
In years past it has been consistently preached that you can always find cheap power late in drafts. Has that been your experience this year and have there been any trends you've noticed in which categories have late juice or dry up quicker than usual?
Justin Mason
10:17
I definitely think it dries up quicker this year than in years past or at least the deficits the late power have are hard to overcome (i.e. bad batting averages.) I am trying to stay as balanced as possible in my drafts this year because I also don't know how the new rules (and if we get a different ball) will play out for fantasy so giving myself as many options to pivot in drafts and in season is important to me.
BucketListJensen
10:17
Hello Justin, do you have any idea if Elly De La Cruz will be up earlier than expected?  Where about should I target him in a draft?
Justin Mason
10:17
I would be really surprised if he is. What do the Reds have to gain from starting his clock?
Guest
10:17
Trying to figure out what I should do with Alek Thomas. Projections vary between the Bat
Justin Mason
10:18
I love Thomas as a long term play but he is blocked right now so unless he gets traded or you can handle a long term stash, I would stay away for this year.
Guest
10:19
Ottoneu 5x5 Auction question (sorry about the other one i hit enter too fast haha)

I currently have an SP rotation of Rodon ($20) Gausman ($9) Nestor Cortes ($4) Nick Lodolo ($3) Rasmussen ($3) Tylor Megill ($3) and Ashby ($5).

Projections put this group around 1225 IP. My question is - should I target a bona-fide ace in the auction? I have plenty of cap space and the likes of Degrom, Cole, Scherzer, Nola and Darvish are out there.

Or am I better served spending the same amount of $$ on 2-3 mid level starters (Severino, Giolito, Bassitt, types)?
Justin Mason
10:20
I don't think you need one of the top guys unless you just want a massive advantage in the rotation. You have a pretty good base already, but there is risk. Anyone I targeted would be among the less risky guys so I would be out on degrom and Giolito.
Guru3:16
10:20
I'm debating keeping Josh Rojas but can't decide where he fits in the Diamondbacks plans.  I think he could get to 30SB and be an every day player.  Thoughts on his outlook for the year?
Justin Mason
10:21
I love Rojas but I think his playing time early could be a bit bumpy and frustrating. I do think that it works itself out and he returns value, but in shallower leagues or if you are not patient, he may be better served on the wire.
Joe
10:22
Who do you think will end up getting the most starts for the Dodgers in CF? Taylor has a decent projection for NL only leagues, and I can keep him for super cheap, but I worry that he will end up sitting most of the time.
Justin Mason
10:23
I think Taylor is more of a super utility guy for the Dodgers, but he should play a lot. I honestly think the every day center fielder is not yet on the team. Bryan Reynolds could be the guy that is starting in LA opening day. I just can't imagine they start the season with Trayce Thompson playing every day.
Vince
10:23
In 10-tm, H2H category, 3 OF league (Reynolds, Suzuki my only locked OF), Marte or Springer? Both ranked and priced about the same. Carroll, Kwan, Nimmo would be possible auction bids. Please explain! Thanks!
Justin Mason
10:24
Marte for me. His ceiling is so nice and I think the market is too low on him.
jaosn
10:24
Do players like Leody Tavares ever learn to hit?  By that I mean, having the defense and speed gives you more chances (like say Brad Zimmer), but can they get better in the majors?
Justin Mason
10:25
I think Taveras still has yet to prove that he can't hit. He had a league average zone contact and o-swing last year in the majors. His defense should give him opportunities. I like him a lot.
Don Von Handburger
10:26
Thoughts on Alek Manoah as a keeper in a league with limited keepers
Justin Mason
10:26
I know projections don't like him, but I think they are missing how good his command is and I honestly think he is an SP1 in 12-leagues this year.
Insert Witty Name Here
10:27
Any players you watched from last season where you think they’re primed for a breakout relative to their projections? Maybe a Homer pick, but I think Bryson Stott is way better than .240/.310/.380
Justin Mason
10:28
I like Stott to outperform his projections but not by a ton necessarily. Guys I like are Josh Jung, Jose Miranda, Gavin Lux, Nico Hoerner, Jonathan India, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Lars Nootbaar, and TJ Freidl
Kal
10:28
In H2H leagues, do you prefer to have streaky hitters who can win you a week and then be benched when they are running cold, or hitters who are consistent but rarely spike a stellar week?
Justin Mason
10:29
I think I prefer the more stable guys because the streaky ones can sink you in a given week. I definitely want to take a few gambles with the risky guys but the majority of my roster should be stable quantities.
Load More Messages
Connecting…