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Justin Mason Baseball Chat
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Justin Mason
8:31
Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!
10:01
The chat is back! Hope everyone had a great thanksgiving!
Jay
10:01
Thoughts/feelings on Framber heading into 2024? He's a top-XX SP, in your view.
Justin Mason
10:03
I have always been a framber guy. I love getting 200 innings at the top of my rotation and you know that it should come with good ratios and a lot of wins in Houston. I think he should be a top 20 pitcher and that is about where he is going.
Double Tap
10:03
Our 12 team H2H redraft draft order was just decided and I’m 12th. I’m overjoyed — feels like there’s ~20 top guys this year and then a cliff. Am I wrong to be happy??
Justin Mason
10:04
I think you are right. There is a small drop off after the top 8 but a bigger one after 13-15 IMO. Being able to get two of those guys is a great way to start your draft.
Rotten tomato
10:04
worst athletic performance by an actor in a sports movie?
10:05
1) Tim Robbins in quarterback princess, 2) John Goodman in the Nave
babe, or 3) Tim Robbins in bull Durham
Justin Mason
10:06
I saw this question as I was wrapping up the pod with Paul and we discussed it on the show a bit. I think John Goodman in the Babe is the right answer. He was just casted in the role because of his body style. Looked completely wrong athletically.
Ludwig
10:06
Evan Carter hype -- Is it justified? How big a 2024 performance are we looking at?
Justin Mason
10:10
Carter may get one the biggest boosts from the playoffs in terms of his price. I don't know that it is warranted. I honestly think he profiles as a good compiler more than a star. Maybe he can be prime Benintendi, but I think a lot has to work in his favor for that to happen. On the plus side he has a great approach and there is pop and speed in the profile and I do think he gets opportunity. That being said, he is going around established players I prefer and huge upside guys that if I want to take a gamble, I can go there. I don't see myself drafting him at his current price and I think that will only go up from here.
Nick
10:11
Keeper question for a 12 team points league that has 3pts per SB and -2pts per CS. Keeping Carrol (22nd round), Tucker and J-Rod in the 13th, and EDLC in the 22nd. Have to choose one of Harper (7th), Vinnie P (22nd) Buehler, B. Miller or Eury in the 25th. I can trade some off, if I can get fair value would you move an OF so I'm not keeping 3 of them?
Justin Mason
10:12
I don't think I am moving any of those outfielders. I think I keep Eury and keep that core together.
Shoheitothejays
10:12
Hey Justin. In a 20 team dynasty keeper H2H rank these pitchers if you don't mind. Skubal, Garrett, Manoah, Bryce Miller, Reece Olsen. Also, have Glasnow, Springs, Woodruff. Thanks in advance.
Justin Mason
10:12
Skubal, Garrett, Miller, Olson, Manoah
KCbbq
10:12
Will Euzekiel Duran be more than a PT player in 2024? He fizzled in the second half but showed great promise when playing nearly everyday in the first half. I have him for $3 in a 12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. Of course will wait till ST to see how things shake out but just wondering your view.
Justin Mason
10:13
I think he is a super utility guy at best unfortunately.
KCbbq
10:13
What are you expecting from Hunter Brown next season? Sure fell on his face the last 2 months of the season. Was pretty much a 2 pitch SP. I'll have to decide whether or not to extend for one year for $6 in a 12 team AL only 5x5 H2H league.
Justin Mason
10:16
I like the foundation for Brown and the organization that he is in, but he definitely needs that third pitch if he is going to improve as a starter. $6 in an AL only league seems like a good price for a young guy that just threw 150 innings and is some growth away from a massive leap.
Whitt
10:16
What is your interest level in Braxton Garrett and Dean Kremer in 2024?
Justin Mason
10:20
I am a huge Braxton Garrett guy. I think he has great stuff and should have a full time rotation spot locked in. He is going way too low in the ADP and will be on a lot of my teams. Kremer is very interesting as well. Great park to pitch in and the home run rate came down in the second half. That being said, he only had four of his fourteen starts on the road in the second half, so that probably isn't going to sustain. In leagues where i can stream him at home, I am very interested.
Kate
10:21
Do you see anything in Will Smith's (the catcher, not the pitcher) data that indicates last year was anything other than a down year?  Most everything looks the same, but the barrel rate dropped sharply and the home runs came down accordingly.
Justin Mason
10:23
He has had a weird lowering of his launch angle the last few seasons which I think accounts for some of his power drop off. My biggest issues with Smith are that the catcher pool around him has gotten better and I think the Dodgers either sign Ohtani or bring back Martinez so his extra plate appearances at DH aren't likely returning. I think he is fine,but not a target for me.
Kate
10:23
Does the gulf between Isaac Paredes xStats and actual stats give you any pause?  He seems to be the kind of guy who's getting the most out of his pulled fly balls (similar to Semien and some others).  Is this kind of profile a bit more delicate (i.e. it can all come crumbling down quickly)?
Justin Mason
10:26
They definitely give me pause, but I also think it is fairly repeatable. Maybe not 31 home runs, but mid-to-high 20's should be in the cards for him with a .240-.250 average while being multi-positional eligible. I think he should play regularly unless he completely falls off and reverts back to a platoon which can happen in Tampa. Here is the thing though. While I am not opposed to drafting Paredes again, I want to find the next paredes more. His price is fine but not one I am jumping for joy on.
Kate
10:26
How hopeful are you for a Gioito bounceback?  He can't be this bad, right?  Was actually pretty good last year until the trade whirlwind started.
Justin Mason
10:28
I really want to see the landing spot for Giolito. I honestly don't know what to make of him until I know what organization and park he will be in. We know he can be great if he has a good pitching coach, but he is a true wild card. I wouldn't draft him in a Gladiator style league because he is so volatile, but in shallower formats where you can drop him, he makes a lot of sense because the upside is so great.
Kate
10:28
How do you reconcile landing spots for guys like Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Maeda in terms of their landing spots being good pitchers' parks, but questionable pitching coaching orgs?  I would assume it's less of a concern for a guy like Gray (who doesn't really need fixing) and more of a concern for Lynn since he obviously needs something to be fixed?
Justin Mason
10:30
I love the landing spots for Lynn and Gray. I think the defense behind them and the parks are fantastic fits. I know Lynn was maddening for people who rostered him in 2023, but I believe in the talent and I think St. Louis will be good for him. Maeda is all about health. When healthy, he is a great pitcher. Perfect guy for a 10 or 12 team league where you can drop  him when he gets hurt.
Kate
10:30
Are you at all concerned about Oneil Cruz's SBs (short term or long term) coming off a major leg injury?
Justin Mason
10:31
Not unless the club says they are slowing him down. I may wait to see him in spring training before I draft him. If he isn't running there, that may be a sign he isn't running as much.
vr
10:31
Hey Justin,
Justin Mason
10:31
Hey!!!
Kate
10:31
How much did the second half / playoffs change your outlook on Pfaadt going into 2024?
Justin Mason
10:32
It changed a ton for me. Not because of his talent level, but for his innings projection. If he had continued to struggle, I don't know that I would have penciled him into the rotation. Now, I think he is a guy that can be penciled in for 140-150 innings
Johny5Alive
10:33
If you are stearns, what do you do? Do you sign a couple of inning eater and high risk bp guys, and just hope to flip them at the deadline? You trading Alonso? Or you gonna go and do whatever you can to get one of the two generational talents in Ohtani and Yamamoto?
Justin Mason
10:34
I think you put all your eggs in the Ohtani basket and when that doesn't happen, tear it down. There just isn't enough on the market to rebuild this quickly and you shouldn't try unless you land Ohtani.
Kate
10:35
Is Luis Garcia at any risk of not having a rotation spot available when he gets back this year?  Or is this the kind of thing that will sort itself out by that point via other injuries?
Justin Mason
10:36
I could see the Astros only letting him be a reliever if/when he gets back this season. I don't think you should be drafting him in redraft formats
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