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Justin Mason Baseball Chat
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Justin Mason
9:40
especially if you have an NA spot
Guest
9:40
For roster construction purposes, do we have stats on what constitutes a replacement-level player? How many RBI-Runs, HRs, SBs, OBP does an average player produce? Even better would be numbers broken down by position.
Justin Mason
9:42
So this is a good question. I don't tend to worry about it from a position standpoint, but I take the 80th percentile stats from each category and then divide it by the number of hitter slots and those are rough category targets per position. For replacement value you would need to run the numbers from your previous season and then looking to see where the $0 marker is.
Claire
9:42
Do you think WAR and defensive stats have minimized 1B contributions? Mattingly, Hernandez, Garvey not getting HOF love and current stars not getting big contracts seems to have become the norm
Justin Mason
9:43
I don't I think teams just realize these players tend to not age particularly well.
Harry
9:43
Thanks for these chats, Justin. Please rank last keeper in an OBP league: Lane Thomas ($10) Evan Carter ($10), Shane Baz ($8), Yusei Kikuchi ($8).
Justin Mason
9:43
Baz
Jack is back
9:43
Do you think expansion will help competitive balance? It seems like an expansion draft and more teams competing for talent would thin the incredible depth teams like Dodgers have built.
Justin Mason
9:43
I think baseball has too many issues to deal with before they think about expanding again
Mochi
9:43
Are we thinking Trevor Story gets to 400 PAs this year? (396 in 2022, 595 in 2021)
Justin Mason
9:44
I have a hard time projecting it, but I did give him more. He finished last year healthy and is entering spring healthy. Still a huge risk and at this point, do we even know what he is?
SteveS
9:45
Hi Justin: Have a carryover dilema... Must choose between Jordan Westburg and Matt Mclain at the same cost in a 12 team OBP roto format. Also, if you had to invest in 3 prospects not including Roki that are likely to make 2025 impact, who would they be?
Justin Mason
9:47
McLain over Westburg. Anthony, Campbell, Emmanuel Rodriguez (not including players that have already debuted.)
Honkus Wagner
9:47
How many ABs are you projecting for Kristian Campbell in MLB this year?
Justin Mason
9:47
I need to finish his projection, but I am thinking it will be about 500
maybe 450
peter brand
9:48
if you had to pick 1 category in a 5x5 roto that you wanted to corner the market on (or at least put a strong emphasis on), what would it be?
Justin Mason
9:48
Power
Carson
9:48
(Nimmo) Still no restrictions on him in terms of ramp up jogging and cage work, but worried about him being anything more than 8-10 steals
Justin Mason
9:49
that is fair, but he only has one season of more than 9 so is that really out of bounds?
Guest
9:49
Think Nick Kurtz makes it to the show this year?
Justin Mason
9:49
maybe a Sept callup if he is just mashing
peter brand
9:49
heliot ramos: superstar, stud, league winner, or all of the above?
Justin Mason
9:50
did my projection on him last night and let's just say that I am impressed. He made really impressive changes in the contact skills while not sacrificing power. I think he plays every day. in SF and could be a 25+ homer guy
Carson
9:50
How delusional am I for thinking Gelof can go 20/20 with a .690ish OPS
Justin Mason
9:51
I think your OPS number is a little lofty, but he will play every day in a better park so I think he could easily be 20/20
have less than 10 minutes and a lot of questions so we are going to speed round things a bit.
Adenolith
9:51
I can't recall exactly where I read this and now I can't find it - the idea was that you should adjust your auction calculator in a way to compensate for the idea you don't particularly care for $1-$4 guys and they're almost interchangable so that money should be reallocated to the top of the auction. What do you think about that strategy and how could you recreate it with the Fangraphs auction calculator?
Justin Mason
9:53
I don't know if you could do it in the auction calculator but you could do it manually. I don't love the idea because it skews the numbers, but a fast and easy way that might work is just figure out where in the player pool the line is you don't care about and then lessen the teams playing in your calculator to reflect that. It won't be perfect, but it is a start.
wopper
9:53
12-team, $260 AL only auction league. I have Cole $12, Bibee $5, Houck $1, McClanahan $3, Springs $4, Kremer $5, Bradford $1, Rocker $6. Which ones are not worth keeping.
Justin Mason
9:53
Kremer
maybe rocker but that is close
Mochi
9:54
is Jace Jung's useful volume tied to whether or not the Tigers get Bregman?  Even if they get him, he'd probably still get moved around the infield a lot and get a meaningful amount of PAs?
Justin Mason
9:54
If they get Bregman, I don't think Jung is playing much in the Majors.
angry 1
peter brand
9:54
i'm on the east coast and tend to have more time later in the evening to watch baseball/live-track boxscores. so as a result i tend to gravitate towards players on west coast teams bc they are usually playing when i'm watching. i always seem to have a ton of dbacks and padres on my team. weird or no?
Justin Mason
9:55
I don't think so. I tend to watch a lot of east coast games because I am making dinner and getting kids ready for bed during the west coast games. So I understand
Adenolith
9:55
When discussing auctions, what do you consider a "deal"? If you go in expecting a player to return $20 are you only drafting if they go for $18 or less? Are you willing to break even at the top of the draft for some production security?
Justin Mason
9:56
absolutely. I want to extract as much value as I can no matter when it happens. If the early names thrown are cheap, then I grab them. If it is in the middle or late, that is when I do it. Changes every auction depending on the room.
Chip Carrey
9:56
A guy in our H2H league has started going reliever/closer only which worked out well and he won. I know if I do the same, we're both screwed but I can't trust the rest of the league to enforce higher prices on relievers and block his strategy. What would you do?
Justin Mason
9:57
I rarely price enforce because you end up getting stuck with players you don't want. Don't go over your values.
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