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Justin Mason Baseball Chat
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Justin Mason
12:09
Starting a little late today because it is TGFBI Day! I will begin as soon as I have enough questions so get those in. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!
Todd Gak
12:14
Cristopher Sanchez is a top ___ pitcher in 2025.
Justin Mason
12:14
30-35 SP on my ranks right now
Adenolith
12:15
Do you build your projections from scratch or do you start with a projection system and then manually adjust for playing time/injury context etc...?
Justin Mason
12:16
I do my projections from scratch. I look at the historical data and then adjust from there. I think this leads to less bias for me.
Greg
12:16
How would you rank Bryan Woo, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler in a 12-team keep forever points league that more heavily weighs IP and Ks?
Justin Mason
12:16
Jones, Chandler, Woo
Last Man In
12:16
I hope that your drafting went well today.
Justin Mason
12:17
Thank you! had a great LABR auction last night which the live stream of it is on my youtube and then TGFBI started a few minutes ago and I was able to grab Ohtani with pick 2.
Adenolith
12:17
Do you approach injury risk a bit different for H2H leagues? In my mind you can weather injuries a bit more in H2H if a guy like Royce or Seager lifts your ceiling pretty significantly when healthy.
Justin Mason
12:19
It really depends on the amount of IL spots I have. I tend to draft guys that are steady contributors in H2H. The guys with massive ups and downs can sink you in individual weeks which is frustrating because they are so hard to predict. Nothing worse than dominating a league to lose in the playoffs because of those types of players.
Jay
12:19
Am I overrating A's & Rays hitters going into draft season? Or should I just snipe guys like Gelof, Soderstrom, Lowe & Lowe as close to last rounders? (10 team, points)
Justin Mason
12:20
If you are getting them that late, it is worth the gamble. It's hard to predict how these park will play until we see them in season, but as a your last few picks, there is no real downside because you can drop them if need be.
Teddy
12:20
In a 12-team dynasty points league, my team is pretty middle of the road. Should I trade Blake Snell for Jared Jones and Bryan Woo?
Justin Mason
12:20
I don't think so
Jay
12:20
Am I bumping Bregman up too much since he'll likely gain 2B in week 2 of the season? I see top 5 2B
Justin Mason
12:22
I don't think there is a guarantee he actually gains the eligibility. Bregman fits the Red Sox more at 3B and Devers fits them more at DH. So while it would be great if Bregman gained that eligibility, I wouldn't necessarily bank on it yet. That being said, I would have Bregman as a top 5 2B if he got the eligibility.
Lowetide
12:22
In a points league, do you like Riley Greene or Lawrence Butler more? Is it close?
Justin Mason
12:22
Butler and it is not close for me
Bobby Peru
12:23
What are you projecting for Matt McLain in terms of triple slash and HR/SB? Do you see him playing ~150 games?
Justin Mason
12:24
.268/.347/.487 with 21 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Just update my projection on him today. I am a buyer since he is looking like he is healthy.
Mochi
12:24
What's your process for stopping yourself from overpreparing for drafts?  Do you have one?  Do you just let it fly until you're on the clock each pick and you're not worried about overanalyzing?
Justin Mason
12:26
I feel like I am a classic overprepper so maybe I am not the best person to answer this. However, once I have my projections and prep done, I am pretty good about just making my picks the best I can. I don't overthink it while I am on the clock because I have put so much time in before that moment.
How to Start
12:26
Holding the 4th/5th/6th pick… big guns (Ohtani, Judge, Witt) are gone. In a typical 5x5 12 team setting, who are your next 3? Soto is awful tempting, but position scarcity makes it hard to pass up Ramirez or Vlad, and Gunnar is another good one even with SS depth. And I hate arms in the first, but Skubal should be in the mix too. Where do you go?
Justin Mason
12:26
For me it is J-Ram. He is just such a consistent stud, but I also don't think you can go wrong
Mochi
12:27
10 team roto 5x5, need to choose 2 of 4 - Jack Flaherty 25th round, Shota Imanaga 14th Round, Reynaldo Lopez 25th Round, Jared Jones 25th round.  Leaning Flaherty/Imanaga. But I really want to talk myself into Jones.
Justin Mason
12:27
Flaherty/Imanaga for me
Tom
12:28
Does Reese Olson take that next step in 2025 to become a top 50-60 fantasy SP?
Justin Mason
12:28
I think Olson is who he is at this point which is a fine middle of the rotation innings eater type. I don't think there is another level, but it is a decent floor.
Limpin' Jack Flash
12:28
Hey, J!  My weird league offers us one N/A spot which does not count against our roster limit.  Balancing probability of enough PA or IP to make a difference in 5x5 H2H (OBP and SOLDS) with very rough ADP zone, whom are 2-3 good picks for this year's better prospects?
Justin Mason
12:28
Roman Anthony, Matt Shaw and Kristian Campbell
Bobby Peru
12:29
Any other guys like Willson Contreras (C eligible but should get full time AB at another position) you're keeping your eyes on in ST?
Justin Mason
12:29
Hunter Goodman. There is a ton of power in the bat and he can play other positions for the Rockies. He strikes out too much but if he has a role that nets him 500 PAs, he could hit 30+ bombs
Dodgers Blue
12:29
How quickly is Schwellenbach moving up the rankings - and is his price too much at this point?  Who are some alternative mini sleepers you are still getting at a reasonable cost?
Justin Mason
12:33
His price isn't too much for me, but I am probably the high man on him in the industry. I just love the command and control and think there are more strikeouts in the profile. Other pitchers I am higher on than consensus include:
Bailey Ober, Cristopher Sanchez, Max Meyer, Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, Brandon Pfaadt. Jose Berrios, Justin Steele, Nick Martinez, and Jeffrey Springs
Dodgers Blue
12:33
Who are some guys you are predicting to have a substantial jump in SBs this year that we aren't thinking enough about?
Justin Mason
12:36
So for this, I look at teams. Guys on the Nationals, Brewers, Reds and Angels especially Luis Rengifo, Yoan Moncada, Jacob Young, Nathaniel Lowe, Joey Ortiz, Garrett Mitchell, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays
Last Man In
12:37
In a 12-team league that keeps 10 players forever, with 2 UT spots and BB as a hitter category and IP as a pitching category.
My Top 9 are: Witt. Abrams. Caminero. Langford. Ja. Duran. Ragans. Skubal. Gilbert. Jh. Duran.
I see the other possibles as: Semien. Butler. J. Naylor.
What would you do?
Justin Mason
12:38
Butler for me.
Bob
12:38
Hi Justin, enjoyed the stream last night. Big picture, How would you approach choice of keepers in this league? Just focus on obvious values? Or also evaluate middling value guys?    std roto, 15tm. Max 9 keepers allowed (draft day =27 rnds  405players drafted ) e.g. rnd 27 D. Rassmussen makes sense but there’s always middling players like M. Miller 11th rnd…
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