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Justin Mason Baseball Chat
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Justin Mason
11:54
Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!
Projections
12:03
What are your go to projections for hitters and pitchers?
Justin Mason
12:04
So I do my own projections. If I wasn't going to use my own, I would use THE BAT X for hitters and ATC for Pitchers.
H2h
12:04
On your pods, you and Paul talk about guys like elly, pca, etc being bad for h2h. Totally agree to a certain extent. But, is there a world where drafting a bunch of volatile guys is actually great? By that I mean, each week a different guy could be blowing up while the others are in their cold streaks
Justin Mason
12:07
Think of it like a math equation where you are multiplying percentages. When you multiple 50% by 50% it become lower (25%). The more volatile players you add to a team in H2H the more you multiplying your risk so the likelihood that you will hit actually becomes lower and lower. Yes, when they all magically do hit at once, it's amazing and you reach that 99th percentile outcome, but the chances you will are very slim.
Insert Witty Name Here
12:07
Bryce Harper a post hype sleeper? Tongue in cheek obviously, but the not elite comments from Dombrowski, he’s one more year removed from his surgery, playing a less demanding position.   I’m thinking he is a massive value at his current ADP.  Curb my enthusiasm here, please.
Justin Mason
12:10
I dont know that I would call him a massive value, but I do think he is a pretty good one. The second half numbers, .262/.338/.524 with 17 homers and three stolen bases where fantastic and the underlying power skills were just as good. Some shaky contact skills in the second half, but I do think he should be going earlier than he is.
Guest
12:10
How many games do you think Buxton plays this year? Would you rather keep him over Bednar in a 12 team roto league?
Justin Mason
12:11
I think I wouldnt project him for more than 120 games and I would like just keep Bednar with how bad the closer pool is.
Joe
12:11
Who's the lowest ranked SP you'd be ok with as your ace in a 12 team H2H league?
Justin Mason
12:13
If I was going to wait in a 12, I would be ok waiting until around 25-30 SPs were gone and starting my rotation with guys like Eury Perez or Nolan McLean. I don't tend to do it, but it can be done very effectively this year because the pool is so deep.
Davidson
12:13
My friends and I are starting a dynasty league this year….but is this a bad year to try to start it with the lockout looking like it’s going to cancel all of 2027?
Justin Mason
12:14
It's never a bad year to start one! I think we will lose games in 2027, but dont worry about that now and just enjoy the baseball we do have!
Ryno
12:14
Better upside very late 2B dart: Hyeseong Kim or Edouard Julian? Feels like both could have a path to tons of PAs with a hot start.
Justin Mason
12:16
It is really dependent on what you need. Both will be on platoons hitting at the bottom of the order, but Kim will be better for speed and Julian better for OBP and power. All things being equal, I would go Kim because I do think he could have the biggest breakout in the Dodgers lineup.
Keepers block
12:16
Hi Justin! Always appreciate you doing these! $300 budget, my keepers are: Maikel Garcia ($3), Keashall ($10), Colson Montgomery ($10), Jackson Merrill ($5), Chase Burns ($10), Bradish ($10), Devin Williams ($3) + Mason Miller ($5) Should I keep Ronald Acuna @ $59 or Marsee /Basallo@ $10. I can save that extra $$ and go after both Witt & Ohtani. My other conundrum: Cade Smith @ $10 — and would own the saves category with my other 2 closers or Lodolo @ $2 (good value for profile).  What do you think?
Justin Mason
12:18
I think I would throw back Acuna to go for Witt or Ohtani and then keep the savings going by keeping Lodolo.
Pumpsie Green
12:18
10 team, AL only, I have Jordan Westburg for one year at $7. Is it worth it to keep him instead of throwing him back hoping to buy him back at a discount for 3 years.
Justin Mason
12:18
yeah, I would throw him back. I dont think he will play this year
IamMe
12:18
Who (if any) do you like to breakout in the COL OF (Beck, Doyle, McCarthy, Veen)?
Justin Mason
12:19
Give me Doyle from this group. He struggled last year but the underlying skills were fine and he was dealing with an off the field family tragedy. I think he bounces back in a big way. I do like McCarthy here as well especially at the price.
Carson
12:19
Hey Justin! What should I make of the rotation situation in Toronto as someone that rosters both Ponce AND Berrios in my 12 team dynasty league?
Justin Mason
12:21
I think both are in the rotation to start the year with Bieber behind and Berrios moves to a swing man role if Bieber comes back. Now that could work itself out with someone else getting hurt before the return so I wouldnt worry too much about it if you want to keep both.
Chris
12:21
Better bet this year - Goodman of Rockies or Merill on Padres?
Justin Mason
12:21
This is tough because I love both. I'll take Goodman, but I literally drafted both yesterday
Ryno
12:22
I would be drafting Zach Cole incredibly aggressively if he showed any contact ability whatsoever. Any chance of him making an adjustment to get to a 30% K rate ala Judge in his first full season or is this just what he is?
Justin Mason
12:23
He would really need to improve the hit tool and aggressiveness within the zone. I just don't see if happening at the MLB level.
Hmmmm
12:23
Yordan Alvarez did not work out last year, suffice to say. Should I go back to the well in a 14 teamer?
Justin Mason
12:23
really depends on the price. If I am getting him in the late third/early fourth, I think I am interested. You just have such a low floor because of the injury risk, but the ceiling is unreal if he is healthy.
Lars
12:24
Is there any way to predict hitters that (seemingly randomly) wake up one offseason morning and say, “I think I’m going to try to steal 30 bases” like Soto and Naylor last year?
Justin Mason
12:25
watch the spring training numbers for players and teams. They are very indicative for stolen base numbers in season. Pay even more attention to these teams with new managers/front offices like the Giants, Angels, and Twins. That's often where we can strike gold.
Shandy Koufax
12:26
Fun idea I had for a custom league: Couples Baseball.
split into an upper and lower division to accommodate difference experience levels. General outline is one partner in each division, mostly intra-division games, and then top 4 couples by combined record have to combine their rosters into a playoff roster. 4 couples play 2 rounds of playoffs to crown a champion.
nervous about how manual the playoff execution might become. Any suggestions or thoughts?
Justin Mason
12:27
I play in a couples fantasy football league where the men and women are in different leagues but in the playoffs any team can face any team and the top four from each league gets an entry. The women have beaten the men 4/5 years I believe including my wife winning two championships.
blackjack
12:27
Do you think Alex Freeland starts the year with the Dodgers?
Justin Mason
12:27
I think he does as a reserve.
blackjack
12:27
Do you think Dalton Rushing will get enough plate appearances to have any value?
Justin Mason
12:29
So I drafted him in the last round of my BARF league draft on Saturday. I am hoping he gets traded before opening day or something happens to Will Smith, but there has been talk about him playing the outfield some. I'll drop him if there isnt a clear path to playing time and grab a second catcher if not.
There is a lot of upside and I do think the Dodgers need to just move him with Will Smith in the org long term.
Dave
12:29
Schlitter or Misiorowski?
Justin Mason
12:30
Super close but I lean Schlittler
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