JotCast | Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat

Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/2022

Kevin Goldstein

12:00

Hi everyone. No fancy intro here, let's just chat.

BlueJayMatt

12:00

Toronto have to trade a catcher to clear their logjam, right? Who gets dealt and where do they go?

Kevin Goldstein

12:05

Here's the thing about questions like these. Yes, they probably are in a position to try to make a move here to fill something shallow from depth. As far as who and here, I don't know, and anybody who answers this question like they do know is just doing you, the reader, a disservice. They'll reach out to teams, teams with interest in one of the catchers will get back to them, there will be talks, and some will get traction and most will not, and maybe something gets over the line. So who knows exactly how that will play out? Even Toronto doesn't know? I'm sure they have a preference to move Player A over Player B, but maybe the better deal ends up being for Player C. I have a bunch of trade scenarios in my queue and I just tend to ignore them . . . not being a crabapple, as much as it just doesn't get me too interested to just make stuff up....

Datt Mamon

12:05

Do you think Votto sustains what he did last year or will we see a real decline?

Kevin Goldstein

12:06

It was a fascinating season and there's some underlying data to support it. I don't think you'll see a 'real' decline, but age is going to play a role. A very productive player in the 850-900 OPS range wouldn't surprise me.

12:06

Lets say lockout ends March 1, any spring training plans for you?

Kevin Goldstein

12:07

We'll see. I'd like to, and I'd also like to stay safe, so it's really going to depend on where we are with the pandemic.

RemarkableOffer

12:07

Does Harry Ford have star upside with his raw power and speed?

Kevin Goldstein

12:08

Sure. I could also say that about a bunch of prospects, and most won't reach it.

RemarkableOffer

12:09

Do you think Dustin Harris taps into enough power to be a regular at 1B/LF?

Kevin Goldstein

12:09

It's definitely not out of the question. Great find by the Rangers.

MrMet

12:09

Thank you for sharing your insights! Which teams do you think rank highest in terms of player development -- especially as it relates to pitching? I would think HOU would rank highly. If so, does someone like Josh James intrigue other teams or would he be considered too risky in that since he couldn't quite figure it out in HOU then he can't do it anywhere else?

Kevin Goldstein

12:10

I think Houston is great at pitching development, having seen it up close. I think the Rays, Yankees, and Indians are also very good at it, as well as other. That said, I think every team has players who would be better off elsewhere. I don't think that's necessary to the case in James, as that's been more of a health struggle than a developmental one.

Berkman's Twinkie

12:10

Under the assumption that the Astros wont re-sign Correa or go after Story...will they give any thought to move Bregman back to SS and go out and get a 3B via FA or Trade (Chapman, Ramirez, Bryant, Suarez, Brian Anderson)...or does Pena/Diaz get the job and they revaulate at the deadline?

Kevin Goldstein

12:11

I just don't see Bregman as an every day defensive SS. I think right now it's Peña's job to lose.

12:11

Do teams ever take all of their scouts to the same game with guys they are unfamiliar with to calibrate that different scouts are seeing the same things? Seems like the early Juco season might be a good time to do that with fewer other games to see.

Kevin Goldstein

12:11

All of them? No. There's always stuff to see. I do like (and the Astros did this), having your scouts do some big league stuff to calibrate themselves as to what big leaguers look like.

Erik

12:12

What are some things you did early in your career as a writer to git gud other than just getting a ton of reps in?

Kevin Goldstein

12:12

Reps are important. I still don't think I'm a good writer, though. I think the most important advice I can give is to write like you talk.

Mike

12:12

Ty Buttrey, who had retired in early 2021 because he “lost the drive” to continue playing, said last night that he wants to return to MLB. Do you think he can reasonably do that, and when’s the earliest he could be ready after potentially not throwing for almost year?

Kevin Goldstein

12:13

He could reasonably do it, but it's really impossible to answer the second part. Get him on a mound, see what the data looks like, and go from there...

Joe

12:14

Seems like he’s lost a little shine, but do you think Manning is capable of developing into a 2/3 starter like he was projected a few years ago? What does he need to do to get there?

Kevin Goldstein

12:14

He COULD, but I think No. 4 is a more realistic expectation.

Steven Kwan

12:14

Having read many of your chats, I know you generally think that a team trading a star is a bad idea. I'm curious, when should a team trade a star?

Kevin Goldstein

12:15

When it makes sense in their cycle, but all of that might change if the CBA looks different....

Three finger brown

12:15

hi Kevin! Take 3! Thank you for doing this. Question: do teams employ any tactics to essentially hide players who would be R5 eligible? For example, IIRC, Jose Urquidy I believe was R5 eligible a few years ago. Thanks again!

Kevin Goldstein

12:15

There are times you might not want a player to do too much AFL or Winter League Ball but in general, not really.

12:15

How much would a team pay for pitcher who could give you 300+ innings a season with a league average ERA?

Kevin Goldstein

12:16

15-20 mil?

That's a gut answer. Fun question.

12:16

Do you know if the recent discussions between MLB/PA about the “non core economic issues” went productively?

Kevin Goldstein

12:17

I haven't heard, but I'm not sure it matters. It's like going to the car dealership and just sampling the coffee. It has no impact to getting a deal done.

Liptowi

12:17

Who gets the majority of ABs as the NYY SS in ‘22?

Kevin Goldstein

12:18

Somebody not currently on their roster. I still think Correa is the perfect fit there and would have a massive impact.

Tony Plush

12:18

Thanks for the chat, KG! Just curious if you've had any looks (on video) at Genevieve Beacom and what you saw. Cool week for women in baseball

Kevin Goldstein

12:18

Very cool indeed. Really nice delivery, seems like she can spin it. I'm with her manager Peter Moylan in that she'd have a chance to pitch college ball here.

Isolated Thinker

12:18

Of all the people you have had the opportunity to meet, which ones were you most awestruck about?

Kevin Goldstein

12:18

Strangely enough, A-Rod.

Mike

12:19

What is a realistic innings expectation for Verlander this season?

Kevin Goldstein

12:19

145?