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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 11/22/2021
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SJ
12:35
As someone who's been running the whole questionnaire gauntlet recently, how much time/attention is really given to each of those? Does the front office develop a thorough opinion of your candidacy based on them or is it more to just test that you clear a certain bar?
Kevin Goldstein
12:35
I can only speak for one team, but they mattered quite a bit.
Doug
12:36
Brian Metoyer spins his curve 3200 rpm. 40th rd pick. Arm strength is adequate (mostly low 90s). Control/command isn't good, but I see an athletic delivery and he hasn't had tons of pro reps. Older dude. Chance he gets popped in the rule 5? Speaking of, why would the Mets not 40 him, given they have only 37 spots filled, including one for Mark Payton?
Kevin Goldstein
12:37
Well, the Mets plan to make moves, so they need room, and Metoyer has barely pitched above A-ball so they don't think he'll stick.
Ben
12:37
Are free agents like Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman still in the players union? Or do they have to leave the union and re-join once they are back on a 40-man roster?
Kevin Goldstein
12:37
Still in the union.
Bort
12:37
Thoughts on Aaron Ashby? His combination of great stuff and a high GB rate seems *very* attractive.
Kevin Goldstein
12:38
VERY attractive indeed. Needs to find some consistency in terms of command, but the stuff is very very good.
Yeff
12:40
What are your thoughts on Caleb Kilian? I think he can start in the show possibly for playoff teams
Kevin Goldstein
12:40
He's a solid starting prospect. I don't think he's top 100 or anything...
TooDamnTall
12:41
Are expectations too high for Bob Melvin going to SD? I have no idea, but I think automatically assuming a manager can go into a different situation and succeed seems overoptimistic. Other guys have done it, but it sounds really hard.
Kevin Goldstein
12:41
It's really hard, but if anyone is up for the task, it's Melvin.
Marcelino
12:41
What’s the likelihood of no baseball on the scheduled opening day ?
Kevin Goldstein
12:41
Significant, but probably under 50%.
Kevin
12:42
Does Ohtani's success open the door to more two-way players or is he just a freakishly gifted outlier?
Kevin Goldstein
12:42
The latter.
Josh
12:42
Hi Kevin, thanks for the chat. I'm curious about how things like swing/mechanical changes are brought up/addressed during Free Agent negotiations. At what point are they typically discussed and do agents ask teams if they have anything like that they want or are the teams the ones that usually broach the subject?
Kevin Goldstein
12:42
It came come from both sides. During my time with Houston, our ability to utilize data in terms with working with pitchers was often an impactful selling point.
Justin
12:43
What kind of things do teams think about when deciding which/how many rule 5 prospects to protect that a fan would not typically think about?   My guess is just the overall opportunity cost of what else could be used by that 40 man spot, but i'll hang up and listen.
Kevin Goldstein
12:44
Yeah, the opportunity cost of the 40-man spot is a very big factor than I'm not sure fans (in general) appreciate enough. After that's there are two pieces to think of. What are the chances that this player would get chosen (everyone talks about that), and what are the chances that the player would actually stick (not enough people talk about this).
Mike
12:44
What's your favorite DeLillo?
Kevin Goldstein
12:44
White Noise.
Liam
12:45
How much sway can an FO have on payroll? Do owners set hard budgets that the front office has to comply with or is it common for owners to spend more than they planned if there’s a guy the gm really wants to go after
Kevin Goldstein
12:45
Owners set hard budgets, and teams spend a lot of time trying to excite their owners it a way that allows them to exceed it.
Beignet and the Jets
12:45
It seemed like a decade+ ago people were pretty comfortable comparing NPB performance to AAA for evaluation purposes. Now that velocity has exploded in the states but avg velo still seems comparably low in NPB, is that comparison no longer helpful in thinking about how a player like Suzuki might make the transition?
Kevin Goldstein
12:46
Actually, I don't think that comparison was every helpful.
Mitch
12:46
Lets get a prediction on how many of the big five A's arb guys will be traded this winter: Montas, Manaea, Bassit, Olson, Chapman
Kevin Goldstein
12:46
Three.
TooDamnTall
12:46
You've mentioned in the past that there are no small market teams, every team mints money. Is that by yearly profits? Or based on the appreciation of the team's value?
Kevin Goldstein
12:47
Not exclusively, but MORE in the latter and that's where the much bigger numbers exist anyway.
Matt
12:47
You mentioned in an answer to an earlier question that “The Angels trying to plant a flag in terms of being big players for FAs might have entered into” the Syndergaard signing. Is that the impression you’ve gotten from folks in the industry, that the Angels are trying to be big players for FAs beyond the Syndergaard signing?
Kevin Goldstein
12:47
Not sure it's all THIS YEAR per so, but I do think they're trying to establish themselves as real players in general. The Nats did this back in the day with Werth.
N. Hornblower
12:48
Is Jeremy Peña ready for prime time?
Kevin Goldstein
12:48
He'll certainly be ready at some point in 2022, and likely early.
NatsFan
12:48
Is what the Giants are doing quickly replicable by other teams?
Kevin Goldstein
12:48
Replicable? Yes. Quickly? No.
Joshua
12:49
What type of value does Victor Robles have on the trade market? For example. what would be a realistic and fair package the Rockies would have to give up to acquire him? Thanks.
Kevin Goldstein
12:49
Why would the Rockies want a fourth outfielder?
171
12:50
Does Robert Neustrom get pick up in the R5 draft? Do you think he will stay if he does?
Kevin Goldstein
12:50
Really hard to take a non up the middle guy unless you think they are special. He's a decent prospect, but far from special.
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