JotCast | Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat

Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/2021

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Kevin Goldstein

1:04

Scarcity. You can find 1 win players all over the place, and five win players are obviously WAY more rare. It's not linear at all.

Cube Jockey

1:04

How common is it for clubs to agree to cover college costs for a drafted high school player if they don't make it to the majors?

Kevin Goldstein

1:05

Always. All deals have a scholarship package.

Guest

1:05

Hey Kevin, do you think we could see Freddie Freeman sign sometime before the 1st?

Kevin Goldstein

1:06

Anything is possible, but that one would surprise me.

JWR

1:07

I love baseball and don't want to be THAT guy but still think that 3 1/2 hour baseball games suck. I analogize it to movies, where I have a strong preference for movies in the 2 hour range. Does my analogy work for you?

Kevin Goldstein

1:08

I get it. I'm fine with a 3.5 hour game if it's 11-10 and full of drama. It's the 4-2 3.5 hour game that's a problem. Honestly, I think a pitch clock fixes everything in terms of game pace. I was at the biggest mess of an AFL game a couple of weeks ago. 20+ runs, tons of errors, walks all over the place, multiple mid-inning pitching changes. But also a pitch clock. Game took 3:15.

Jay

1:08

What are the chances a salary floor is implemented in a new CBA? Is that a nonstarter for the owners?

Kevin Goldstein

1:09

The owners have already pitched a salary floor, it was a non-starter because along with it they pitched a lower CBT ceiling.

Sirras

1:09

Has the pace of signings over the last 7 or so days surprised you?

Kevin Goldstein

1:10

Yes it has. I thought there would definitely be some players who wanted their business settled before the lockout, but I didn't think it would be anything close to this many.

Azad Earl

1:11

Where you surprised that Seiya Suzuki will not sign before the 1st?

Kevin Goldstein

1:11

Not at all. He just posted, and it was going to take time.

Sir Nerdlington

1:11

With Scherz over 40M in AAV, the salary cap luxury tax has to go up significantly, no?

Kevin Goldstein

1:11

I think more accurately, the other owners will be mad at Cohen for going so far over it.

Guest

1:12

Whether it's a game or a movie, I'm happy to watch something that's long if it's a good product.

Kevin Goldstein

1:12

I agree but a 4-1 game that takes 3.5 hours without much action is not a good product.

A cat

1:13

Expecting any surprise nontenders?

Kevin Goldstein

1:13

I'm kind of fascinated to see what the Yankees do with Gary Sanchez.

Jay

1:13

If there is a salary floor in the new CBA, would we likely see some crazy signings by the likes of the Pirates, Rays, Athletics, etc to get there? Would definitely make free agency even more interesting.

Kevin Goldstein

1:14

I've wondered this myself. Floor is 60 and team is at 50. Do they overpay some late-signing free agent and give him 10 to get there?

Pinstripe Perry

1:14

You worked for a team in TX, does the "no state income tax" pitch ever become a portion of the sell to a FA or is that thing significantly overblown by fans?

Kevin Goldstein

1:15

That pitch is absolutely something to sell. Makes a big difference when you are talking about eight-figure salaries.

Jeb

1:15

May you please educate me - if a team plans on non-tendering a player, why not release them beforehand to free up a 40-man spot? Is it just a matter of getting more time to negotiate with the player?

Kevin Goldstein

1:16

For the most part. You might not think a player is worth the $8 million he's going to get as a tendered player, but you'd be happy to have him for $6m, so you take your shot.

JWR

1:17

Would the Mets have still signed Scherzer if Matz hadn't walked back his handshake agreement earlier this week with the Mets?

Kevin Goldstein

1:17

I think so. Mets are going wild, and it's really good for baseball.

Joe H

1:17

Will minor league portion of rule 5 draft still take place as normal?

Kevin Goldstein

1:17

Good question. I'll look into it.

JWR

1:18

Who will have the better career: Fernando Tatis Jr. or Wander Franco?

Kevin Goldstein

1:18

Holy crap what a question. I don't know. I don't want to just gut that one.

Keith

1:18

do you think yolmer sanchez can be the white sox 2b in 2022? or not nearlt good enough for a team in its contending window? how would you prioritize their adds if they don't have budget for top options at every need?

Kevin Goldstein

1:19

I thought Semien was the perfect fit for him, and they might have as well and then balked at seven years. I would have done the same.

John Wick 4

1:19

What position will Corey Seager be playing in the middle of his free agent deal?

Kevin Goldstein

1:19

Really depends on the team.

BigDaddeh

1:20

Do all HS draftees get the college scholarship deal or just the top ones? Related to that - can you offer college money and not have it count against the cap total?

Kevin Goldstein

1:21

Scholarship packages are separate from the bonus and do not hit the bonus pool. College juniors get them as well for their final year based on tuition costs of the school they attend.

John Wick 4

1:21

What is a pitcher's prime? Or is that not a thing, given how pitchers often don't develop in a linear fashion?

Kevin Goldstein

1:22

The latter. Treat each player like an individual. From drafting, to player development to later career stuff and better things will happen.

1:23

Ok, folks, entering the final minutes.....

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