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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 12/6/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:01
Hi everyone. Let's chat. I know times are tough baseball wise, but we'll be fine in the end, I promise.
Jon
12:01
What’s the BEST-case scenario for a lockout end? Any chance of this year?
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
Almost ZERO chance of this year. I wouldn't even expect anything resembling substantial talks until the calendar flips. There's just no impetus right now. The players don't start losing paychecks for another four months, and the owner's revenue streams aren't really threatened until spring training. Best case is probably somewhere between 1/15 and 2/1.
Hi Kevin!
12:03
Okay give me the bull case on why Bobby Witt Jr maybe does better than he is "expected" and the bear case on why he does not?
Kevin Goldstein
12:03
Bull Case: Highly advanced at 21, still 5-8 years from prime, will continue to improve and become a franchise players.
12:04
Bear Case: So-so swing decisions and swing-and-miss tendencies led to some hit tool limitations that hold him back.
Derek
12:04
Any steaming hot Hall of Fame takes?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
I'll leave those to Jay.
Doug
12:04
What number does a hypothetical Ohtani extension start with?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
It's such a great question and I think a very difficult one. If he can do what he did every year, it's obviously a massive number, but can he do what he did in 2021 every year? Based on how it ended, I think there are plenty of very fair questions regarding that.
Jim
12:07
How much longer do you see George Springer being All-Star quality? And how much longer do you think he can stick in CF?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
The biggest risk is his health, as his skillset is something that tends to age well. He's probably a little fringy in CF right now, but that's more of a team-specific questions in terms of future position.
Jacob
12:08
Did you use ever use a coding language in your role?
Kevin Goldstein
12:09
I have a background in tech, so a little. I know just enough SQL to be dangerous. You probably don't want me writing SQL, but if there's a query somewhere, I know how to change it to suit my specific needs. I've done some "hello, world" kinda stuff in R, but that's about it.
Derrick
12:09
Do you think there's much to the theory that Gleyber Torres will hit better playing 2B than SS?
Kevin Goldstein
12:09
It's hard to say without knowing the person, which I don't, but it's certainly a real thing for some players and therefore within the realm of possibility.
5 Run Homer
12:09
The lockout sucks but it is an opportunity for everyone to start watching hockey, a sport that rules and has less meddlesome owners
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
I don't think I can name five NHL players. Now is a great time to get into sumo, or play Shin Megami Tensei V.
Jacob
12:10
Is Trevor Story’s market bad? Could he return to Colorado?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
No; highly doubtful.
Jacob
12:11
Do you have any books you have read that weren't baseball books, but made you think differently or better about baseball?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
Nothing comes to mind immediately. In general I don't read baseball books, and as an absolute, I don't read business books that tend to be the flavor of the month and get passed around front offices.
John Van Benschoten
12:11
Do you use motion smoothing while watching 24fps movies on your OLED? Some of the panning shots are very jarring to me without it.
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
No. Motion Smoothing is an abomination and should be banned in the constitution. I don't et jarred by it at all, but know that some do.
Sirras
12:12
What was the biggest change to your thinking/evaluation of players that you needed to make in transitioning from a member of the public to a member of a front office?
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
I think the most jarring thing might have been the intrinsic value of a 40-man roster spot.
Amy
12:13
How like is it that the NL has a DH in 2022? And not just in interleague play!
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
83.21954%
Datt Mamon
12:13
What do you make of what Correa's market will be post-lockout? There's no way the Cubs could somehow swoop in, right?
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
I think his market is just fine and that he'll get paid. I'm a little confused as to what the Cubs are doing, so maybe?
J
12:14
I saw Lance McCullers Jr talked to Dr. Neal ElAttrache about his injury-is that officially allowed during the lockout since ElAttrache is officially listed as the Dodgers head team physician?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
It is. ElAttrache is not an employee of the Dodgers, nor are most (I think ANY, but not totally sure) head physicians. They are contractors with private practices and thus can speak to their patients. Head trainers and strength and conditioning folks can not.
A big dumb idiot
12:15
I havent seen the unions enormous grievance over the 2020 season mentioned with lockout discussions. Is it likely to be a factor? Either as a carrot or stick by the union
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
I'm not sure it's a huge factor, but it is still hanging out there.
David
12:15
How does the transitive property work for defensive grades? If a prospect is a 40 defender and is currently a shortstop, does this mean he's a 45 third baseman? Did you have any sliding scales like this with the astros
Kevin Goldstein
12:16
Not at all. That's very dangerous thinking in my mind. 3B is a different skill set. It's a read and react position and some can slide over there well and others really struggle.
Appa Yip Yip
12:16
Seiya Suzuki isn't part of the MLBPA, so can front offices talk to him and his reps? By delaying his posting until it would be bisected by the lockout did he buy himself an extra month or two of negotiating time?
Kevin Goldstein
12:16
They cannot. You could call and offer him a minor league deal!
Scotty
12:17
Hey Kevin, are waiver claims subject to physicals like free agent signings? For example, when the Reds put Miley on waivers and the Cubs picked him up, was that subject to a clean bill of health? If the Cubs claimed him and then did a physical and his elbow had exploded, would the reds still be on the hook or would the Cubs have to decline his option and pay the buyout?
Kevin Goldstein
12:18
The Cubs can (and certainly did) request a medical, which would be his complete medical record, to review before making the claim. They did not do a present physical, but the Reds do need to inform him with any 'new' medical stuff that might not be in the report.
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