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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 3/29/2021
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Justin
12:01
what kind of things should an awful rebuilding team like the Pirates be doing over the next 6 months?  Maybe you learned lessons from good and bad things from your early Astros days that they should apply.
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
Hi everyone! Welcome to the chat and happy Opening Day Week (is that a thing?). I look forward to your questions. The Pirates have some decent arms and they should be looking to deal them this summer to improve their long-term outlook. Pretty simple, really.
DaleMurphy
12:02
You’re building a dynasty team and can start with either Wander Franco or Bobby Witt. Who do you choose?
Kevin Goldstein
12:03
Franco is the No. 1 prospect in baseball, no question. So it's Franco. That's not an insult to Bobby Witt, who is really damn good.
Scott
12:04
Hi Kevin!  What is your outlook for Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy this season and for the future?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
I don't see any reason they can't be soild middle of the rotation starters now and for years to come.
Reggie Barr
12:05
Should we be treating Akil Badoo as a 2021 potential breakout prospect that should be picked up today?!?
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
I think he's exceeded expectations merely by looking like a big leaguer, but I'd temper expectations beyond a nice fourth outfielder.
Kate
12:06
Eric seems to be the high man on Quinn Priester among the prospect community.  Do you agree with him in that Priester fits into that 55 tier with Lacy, Meyer, etc.?  Or is he more of a 50 for you?  Trying to compare him with Abel and a lot of other seem to have Abel higher.
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
He's more of a 50 for me. I wasn't a huge fan after seeing him in high school but he's exceeded expectations.
Doug
12:07
Which baseball player would have the best sumo wrestling nickname and why is the answer Jumbo Diaz?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
It's Jumbo, but Vogelbach and Alejando Kirk come to mind as well.
billsaints
12:08
(I know it'll never happen) Every year that passes I can't help but feel more and more strongly that two divisions with relegation and promotion between would fix so many of baseballs problems. Most teams can't deliberately tank, the season remain exciting at both ends of the division, teams will actually pay to stay up and pay to get back up.
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
I think there are ways to address this that don't include relagation.
Kate
12:10
As a plus hit tool guy with a good frame, what do you think the odds are that Robert Hassell develops above average pop?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
Average? Pretty good. You're talking 14-18 HR. Above-average is a maybe.
Dj
12:10
has the ship sailed on gary sanchez getting back to an all-star level catcher?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
No. It's possible. I wouldn't bet hard on it, but it's certainly within the realm.
Derek
12:11
How much of a residual rooting interest do you have/expect to have for the Astros this season?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
It's weird. I have friends who work there who I am rooting for individually because I want them to do well in their careers. As for the team, I'm neutral. I don't have a rooting interest. I think watching some Houston games in spring training and seeing players for whom I had nothing to do with acquiring helped.
Dj
12:13
any clint frazier thoughts?
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
I don't think I have any groundbreaking thoughts on him. I think he'll be pretty good. Like .800 OPS good.
oregonian
12:13
Taillon or C Javier in a monthly transaction league?
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
Very important to note that I have NO IDEA what a monthly transaction league is. That said, I'd take Javier because I feel way better about him pitching the whole year.
Kate
12:14
ST stats obviously need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but how much would you read into a pitcher having a huge uptick in Ks over that kind of sample?  Without the underlying data, I guess it's hard to say if they were earned, right?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
Right. The K rate catches your eye, and then you have to go to the data and video to see how real it is due to the small sample.
Sammy the dog
12:15
Is it possible that a hitter has higher game power than raw power due to an elite hit tool? Thinking small guys like: Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez.
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
No. It's not possible, and those guys might have WAY more raw than you think.
Jeff in Jersey
12:16
Mets fan wondering if the team can extend all its best young talent (Lindor, Conforto, Thor, potentially McNeil/Nimmo/Alonso/Smith) and still manage to fill in holes in the roster, as they're going to need starters unless Allen & Ginn develop in a hurry and a real everyday CF while we wait for Pete Crow-Armstrong. Obviously any owner can blow past the luxury tax cap, and Cohen has the money to do it. But so few teams have decided to just go for it, penalties be damned. Your thoughts?
Kevin Goldstein
12:16
You can't extend all of them, you have to make your decisions on which ones you want to extend. Also, not all players WANT to sign an extension. There are tons of players out there who want to bet on themselves and/or really want to go through the free agent process.
Rusty
12:16
What do you make of hitters who see a drastic increase in K% once they reach the majors? Specifically interested in your thoughts on Keston Hiura, who’s k rate in minors was 21% but jumped to 32% in the majors. What do you attribute to this increase - Does facing better pitchers really make for that large of an uptick?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
It's very player to player. In Hiura's case I think it's an approach issue in that he now sees himself as more of a slugger and has to go back to being a hitter and just letting the strength play more naturally rather than trying to force it.
vorTrev erBau
12:17
What is your proposed solution to the 'sticky substance issue'?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
Fix the damn ball.
Marcus
12:18
Curious, when veterans are considering taking a deal to play in AAA, how much do the conditions of the facility and general quality of life (i.e. easy travel, nice place to live) factor in when they decide where to sign? Or is the prime motivation what opportunities exist at the big league level? If facility is a consideration, which teams are well regarded and which are not?
Kevin Goldstein
12:18
Facilities are often a consideration, and geography often is as well, but more than anything, it's opportunity to accrue MLB service time.
comish4lif
12:19
Kevin, do you have any insider insight to MLB's reorg of the Minor? From the outside, it looked really bungled. I would have really expected MLB to have announced a mostly complete plan the day after the agreement expired.
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
I just think the entire thing was incredibly short-sighted. No, teams don't need that many affiliates for development purposes, but the damages to baseball as a cultural institution are too great to do what they did. I really don't have any insider insight to it, that all happened way above my pay grade.
Andre
12:21
Hey Kevin - looking back at your time with the Astros, what did the team miss on Ramon Laureano? Was it just a numbers crunch or did he develop as a player in ways that HOU didn’t believe was likely to happen?
Kevin Goldstein
12:22
There was a numbers crunch, and he was coming off an ugly year in which a lot of things went backwards. It was definitely a mistake. Huge credit to Ramon for working hard and bouncing back to become the player he has. The makeup on the guy is just off the charts and those are the kind of players who can do what he did.
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