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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/2022
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Kevin Goldstein
11:59
Hi everyone. Great to be chatting again, these are always a blast. It's an important time here at FanGraphs. The lockout sucks for everyone, and we need your help so please read David Appleman's note on the site today at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/were-asking-for-your-help-as-we-navigate-t... and please consider supporting FanGraphs if you enjoy these chats, and all of the great words and audio we produce here. We love doing it, it's clear that people love consuming it, and we need your support. Ok, let's go.
Max
12:01
Are former MLB players on minor league deals in minor league camp?
Kevin Goldstein
12:01
If they're not on the 40-man, yes.
Also, mad props to the person who commented on the chat to complain about it before it even started!
Max
12:02
How are AAA teams going to fill out rosters if this lockout stretches til April and 40-man roster guys are still unavailable?
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
By moving guys up. Really no other way. Every team is going to have 3-4-5 players that are locked out and creating roster holes.
MLBMovingAvg
12:02
Hi Kevin

I've been searching high and low for either a more granular explanation of a non-traditional shift, or even an example of one. I keep coming up short.

I went to Neil Weinberg's definition on Fangraphs of traditional shift, which is very detailed:

Traditional Shifts:

1) If there are 3 infielders playing on one side of the infield, we consider that a Full Ted Williams Shift.

2) If two players are positioned significantly out of their normal position, we consider that a Partial Ted Williams Shift.

3) If one infielder is playing deep into the outfield (Usually the 2B 10+ feet out into right field), we consider that a Partial Ted Williams Shift. If the 2B is only a few steps into the outfield, that does not count.

For non-traditional, there isn't a clear definition, it just says whatever doesn't fall under any of the rules above.

''Non-traditional shifts are situational shifts not covered under the definition of traditional shifts.''

Thanks!
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
You're getting into a weird area in that the teams that are though of as heavy shifters, are not doing it out of rote. It's not a hey, we shift this guy, so I stand here. Teams have very specific defensive positioning for each individual batter. Sometimes it's clearly dramatic, and other times not so much. I think the teams that do it a lot are technically 100% in non-traditional shifts, because it's not a rote shift as much as it's player-specific defensive positioning.
joe
12:04
Opening day o/u 7/1?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
Way under.
Sad mlb fan
12:04
When do you predict a CBA deal will get done ?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
March 25th.
Dev
12:05
Have heard that baseball is growing in Argentina due to Venezuelans moving there - is this more of a grassroots thing or something teams are monitoring for scouting purposes (if it's even a thing at all)?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
Not yet. In terms of baseball, things are aligned pretty well because one of the largest influxes of people leaving the situation in VZ has been in the Dominican Republic.
Enlightening Round
12:05
If i can get to a U. of Arkansas game, who should I be watching closely? I've seen as many as 7 of their players are highly draftable.
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
Robert Moore is obviously the dude there, but with conference games starting, you'll have plenty of real draft prospects to see on both teams most weekends.
Dalton Wilcox
12:06
Would you say Brennen Davis can be Spring-esque OFer? More Haniger?
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
If we thought he'd be Springer, he'd rank higher. Obviously there's a chance he hits that right side of expected outcomes, but also obvious that it's very dangerous to assume that.
Scott
12:07
Soto turned down the Nationals $350 million offer. Do teams in that position ever come back a few months later and say, "OK, how about $400 million?"
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Unsatisfying answer, but the truth.
troke
12:08
What do you make of the idea that the league always intended to cancel the first few weeks, because they lose money on those games anyway?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
I think intended is a bit strong, but I do think they weren't overly concerned with losing April games on a financial level.
troke
12:08
How difficult is it for the league to get concensus from the owners? Do the owners that tend to spend more also want a hard cap (or high CBT penalties) to save themselves from themselves, or are they against the it so that they can better separate themselves from the have-nots?
Kevin Goldstein
12:09
I don't think there is owner consensus at all. One of the biggest challenges this negotiation has is the need for 23 owners to agree.
copecru
12:09
How much is the lockout affecting minor leaguers on the 40 man roster career progression? The Mariners (and others) are taking it in the shorts with their pitching prospects and Julio and Al Rodriguez.
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
I don't think it's affecting them yet, and really probably won't until April.
Alex Long
12:10
What is your opinion on the shift being banned and do you think it will make a major difference?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
I'm against it. Teams should be allowed to innovate.
Topher
12:11
Big if, but if the season gets shortened a substantial amount to about like 90 games, could a reliever have a shot at the Cy Young Award with a 2021 first half Kimbrel type year?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
I have no idea. I don't try to understand how the BBWAA vote.
Lars
12:12
Which CLE starter prospect mentioned in the T100 chat are you higher on, Peyton Battenfield or Cody Morris?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
Battenfield, but there might be some bias there from being involved in his draft selection.
Josh
12:12
Are you still sticking with 140-150 games this season or has anything changed?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
Still there...
Bob
12:13
If Joshua Baez can show some decent bat-to-ball skills this year, is he a top 100 prospect next year?  Dudes got light tower power.
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
Sure, but there is danger is these kind of questions because there are 50 prospects with power like Baez and bat-to-ball issues and any one of them could boost their stock with more contact.
Captain Moonlight
12:14
Would the best internationally-inclined teams be hurt more, or the worst teams helped more, by the implementation of an international draft?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
Hurt. Makes it harder to out work and out scout other teams.
Guest
12:15
Can you tell the owners that we don't need expanded playoffs because the teams already play six days a week for six months and if they can't figure out who is the best team by the end of the season then they never will. And then when the owners say they want the TV revenue from expanded playoffs just tell them to field more competitive teams and more people will want to see the regular season. Thanks
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
Sure, but the goal of extended playoffs is not to figure out who the best team is, it's just about revenue.
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