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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 4/5/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:02
Hey everyone. We have baseball! Real games! Stats! Data! Video! Fights! All sorts of fun stuff. Let's get to the questions....
12:05
It's 2% of the season. No real conclusions to be made. Obviously Oakland had a horrendous weekend, but would you be shocked if they were over .500 in a couple of weeks? I wouldn't. Some teams looked great like the Phillies and Astros, and some looked like dogcrap, like Oakland and Boston. Feel like it's too early to get super excited or pessimistic until somewhere towards the end of the month.
Larry
12:05
Would Jud Fabian be better off opting out of the draft and going back to Florida for another year?
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
No. He'll get picked and get paid, just not as much as he expected in say February. I wrote about his swing and miss issues in the first week of the season, and it hasn't gone away. Last I looked he was the NCAA leader in whiffs. It's a real concern, but he does have tools.
workermonkey
12:06
what's it finally going to take to get rid of local market tv blackout restrictions for baseball?
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
RSNs generate an enormous chunk of revenue for teams, and as long as that's the case, and it will be for quite some time, this isn't going to change.
CoryMC
12:07
What were your thoughts on Trent Thornton? He's not done much but has been decent for the Jays.
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
I though he had really good raw stuff and sub-50 command. Still feels accurate.
Peter
12:08
How much input to teams/front offices have in major MLB decisions like altering the length of the draft?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
Not much. The five-round thing last year came out of the blue and really caught teams off guard. Everyone was expecting 20 rounds this time around.
Jeb
12:09
If you were the Pirates picking #1, who would you choose if the draft was tomorrow and why?
Kevin Goldstein
12:09
Today? Hard to say anyone but Jack, no?
Lucas
12:09
White Sox twitter is freaking out, due to the team's freakout on-field. SHould I too be freaking out or is this the ultimate small sample size?
Kevin Goldstein
12:09
Remain calm! All is well!
steve
12:09
iu/ohio state was a fun game to watch this saturday. thoughts on mccade brown or seth lonsaway?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
I wrote about Lonsway last month. What you saw over the weekend is what happens when he throws strikes. Unfortunately, those times are exceptionally rare.
Justin
12:10
Since the draft is supposed to be a tool to encourage parity in the league, I'm wondering about how much of an advantage a team picking, say, #5, would have over a team picking, say, 25th.   Is the draft so much of a (for lack of a better word) crapshoot that the difference isn't really as big a deal as fans may think it is?   And what magnitude would any difference be?  Maybe one extra decent eventual MLB piece?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
It's not a crap shoot. It is an extreme bell curve however. Top 10 picks are exceptionally valuable.
dmitry
12:11
I was looking through King Felix's sad decline, then compared it to Scherzer's dominance, and wondered which was Cole more likely to become. Was there anything about Felix's or Max's (or any other elite pitcher's) profiles that could give us insights to Cole's aging curve?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
You are not going to like my answer, but here goes: At any point in time, it is my belief that there are somewhere between 5-10 pitchers who can just go 200 innings every year with no worries about effectiveness or wear and tear. Cole is one of them, Scherzer is one of  them. Figuring out who they are is quite hard until they become one.
Ben Cherington
12:13
You said in the most recent Chin Music that you're still not sure you see what direction I'm going in, but do you have anything to say about any of my hires? Drafting and development comes up around here as one of my predecessors problems and I'm trying to avoid that.
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
I think Ben is good at his job, and I think they have a good staff in place. No we will see how it goes, but it's not going to go quickly.
Jeter
12:13
about what sample threshold do you “begin to worry about a guy”? 25 games?
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
I really depends on the underlying data more than the stats. One start and velo or spin/shape being down can be concerning, three starts more telling. Same with EVs and angles.
David (formerly Sonoma State)
12:14
Generally speaking, how do orgs feel about Driveline? I feel like fans see it as some sort of a Godsend for players. Do orgs feel the same?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
I think they generally do good work.
Shodai
12:15
Terunofuji: Greatest sports comeback in history?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
How about it! An absolutely remarkable return to ozeki, even if the last win came against Takakeisho, who is my favorite rikishi. The March basho was a lot of fun with it being wide open because of all the injuries. This has been your KG Sumo Moment, and I hope Shodai shows up more!
Ml
12:17
What would wander Franco slash if he came up and played every day?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
Higher than Willy Adames.
The B1G Guy
12:18
You love baseball and live in the Big Ten footprint, do you have any insight as to why the Big Ten seemingly views baseball as a nuisance? It’s so bizarre because there are multiple schools (Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin) that fit the profile of the types of places that have emerged as solid baseball schools (good academics in a P5 conference). That’s without even mentioning how Ohio State doesn’t seem to bother trying to land guys in a decently talented state (~38 active MLs this year). Are cold weather kids more likely to sign out of HS, or is the Big Ten just not offering as much in terms of scholarships as southern or western schools?
Kevin Goldstein
12:18
What they don't offer is WARMTH. Best kids go where it's warm.
Royal Flush
12:19
Morning Kevin! Alec Lewis of The Athletic reported Andrew Benintendi's Z-Contact this morning:

2018: 83.9%
2019: 78.7%
2020: 76.7%
2021: 70.6%

Is this small sample size or cause for concern for us Royals fans? Anything from a scouting standpoint that jumps out to you in his swing opening weekend?
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
It's concerning. He didn't look good this spring either.
Guest
12:19
What is the difference between a Director of Player Personnel and Director of Player Procurement? Angels have both.
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
Who really knows? The title game in major league baseball is an exceptionally fun one. Plenty of people with the same titles doing completely different jobs on a day to day basis.
Jacques Pederson
12:20
Which is better/cooler/more impressive to you: big pull-side power or big opposite field power? Can a player have one more than the other, or is that an approach issue?
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
Power hitters can pull the ball, HITTERS WITH POWER can go oppo. Oppo always impresses me more.
Rob
12:21
Obviously encouraging start for the Astros.  How was Chas McCormick viewed within the org while you were there?  It's very early but there seems to be enough in the bat to warrant average regular corner AB upside in the future.
Kevin Goldstein
12:21
Pretty mixed. Everyone thought he was a big leaguer at least. Some saw him with a chance to be an every day player, some saw him as more of a nice fourth outfielder. I'm in the latter category.
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