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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 6/28/2021
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Don Jenver
12:17
Hader is 4th among all pitchers in Win Probability Added since 2017. Is FanGraphs doing a Trade Value Series this year & does Josh finally crack the list?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
Yes, they are . . . or rather Ben Clemens and I are. Tough for Hader to make that list.
Keen on the Crew
12:18
Does Adames make Turang a trade chip or is Turang the Brewers future 2B?
Kevin Goldstein
12:18
The Brewers had an immediate need, so they addressed it and they'll figure out questions like that much later.
Derek
12:18
Boyd and Turnbull both having very good seasons, Skubal and Mize pitching quite well, Manning up and holding his own so far... Legitimate reason for optimism for Tigers and fans right now? Baddoo looking like a real major leaguer and Torkelson is hitting the crap out of minor league pitching has to help as well! (but, good lord that offense needs a lot of help still)
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
I do think there are reasons for optimism in Detroit. They need to find a way to score more runs, obviously.
Sad Cardinals Fan
12:19
Does St. Louis sell off some of their young bullpen pieces (Genesis Cabrera, Gio Gallegos in particular) or hang on to them and try and contend again in 2022 after improving the roster in the winter?
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
I don't think they know yet. Bubble team waiting a few more weeks to see what happens before making a decision.
Zack
12:20
Good morning Kevin,

What are your thoughts on the upcoming CBA negotiations? Are we likely doomed for another strike/work stoppage in 2022?
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
I think the chances of the CBA expiring on 12/1 without a deal in place are 99%. I think that chances of spring training 2022 NOT starting on time at about 50/50.
B
12:20
Suppose a kid did everything 100% right - all the best coaching, all the best tech, etc. - from a very early age.  How unathletic could that kid be and still play in MLB?  In other words, what percentage of kids, no matter what they do, never have even a chance of being a major leaguer?
Kevin Goldstein
12:21
98%?
Lark
12:22
What do you do with a guy like Adell? When his K/BB is like that in AAA, how does the dev team get him to a point where he can succeed in the majors?
Kevin Goldstein
12:22
It's obviously a massive challenge, but he's still just 22 years old so it's plenty of time.
The Chicken Runs at Midnight
12:22
Thoughts on the MLB Draft League? What level of competition would you say is involved in terms of other summer leagues such as the Cape Cod League or the Northwoods League.
Kevin Goldstein
12:23
It's WELL BELOW that. I think we'll have to be patient with that league. It has a chance to be important, but it's not there yet.
fangraphs reader
12:23
I irrationally like Marty Costes. Does he have an MLB future?
Kevin Goldstein
12:24
Maybe as a 4A type. He's 25 already, and doesn't play defense well.
MFG1975
12:24
What are your thoughts on "health as a skill"? Adalberto Mondesi and Byron Buxton are two current examples of guys who get all sorts of heat from fans for chronic IL trips, back in the day Joe Mauer was the upper midwest poster boy for "being soft." Your thoughts?
Kevin Goldstein
12:25
My first thought is that calling Joe Mauer, or any frequently injured player 'soft' is complete BS.
SJ
12:25
I know it's still too early to draw a lot of conclusions, but is it valid to be excited about Evan Carter given he was a pretty off the board pick, was aggressively assigned, and then was producing before going on the IL last week?
Kevin Goldstein
12:25
It's fine to be a little optimistic. He was drawing a ton of walks, but wasn't hitting much. Jury is still very much out.
Justin
12:25
Could you quantify or describe, how big (or small?) the impact that saving, say, $1.5 million on the top pick could have on the rest of the Pirates' draft?   Like, is that enough to turn a good draft into a great draft?
Kevin Goldstein
12:26
I mean, a bit of a cop out, but it all depends on what they do with the 1.5 extra. There has to be a player with a big number that gets to you.
Yo-Yo
12:26
Hey, thanks for chatting! Jordan Walker recently turned 19 and has the best offensive numbers of anyone over 100 AB in A-ball. Is this just an advanced, highly talented youngster beating up on lesser competition, or has he taken a step forward towards being a Top 100 prospect? I'm a Cards fan who needs something to dream on. Thanks again!
Kevin Goldstein
12:26
I think he's Top 100 RIGHT NOW. The underlying analytic numbers are as impressive as the stat line.
Joseph
12:27
Are the 2021 Astros as good as their 2017- 2019 teams?
Kevin Goldstein
12:27
Offensively, yes. Pitching, no.
Mike
12:28
Are you encouraged by Hunter Brown's recent outings? Do you think he's a starter long term and are you still bullish on the upside?
Kevin Goldstein
12:28
Very bullish on the upside. The raw stuff is nothing short of incredible. Command still has a long long way to go.
HailState
12:29
With my school Mississippi State in the CWS, I wanted to say a few things (no bias): 1) Dudy Noble Field is a wonderful baseball experience. 2) Starkville, MS is better than you probably think. 3) Most MSU fans at the CWS did not have to sell all their earthly possessions to afford the trip. Yes, it's Mississippi, but it's still the USA...
Kevin Goldstein
12:31
1-2: Starkville is a tremendous experience. Incredible environment. 3. Also agree. Does Mississippi have problems as a state overall? Of course. But to act like it's a mono-culture is closed-minded fake liberal BS. I'm met plenty of very cool people in the deep south.
Bearry
12:31
For awhile I looked at the Rays and thought they were underperforming. Now the last few years I look and feel like they’re overperforming. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, but do they do anything that is letting squeak past the surface level markers?
Kevin Goldstein
12:31
I think there's something to HOW they use players in game that makes a difference.
12:32
He was great yesterday, but one game does not equal a magical turn around. Let's see how it plays out.
Cobie
12:32
Has there been any word or anything you’ve seen that has led to Baz’s ridiculous drop in walks? Is this a control over command thing?
Kevin Goldstein
12:33
I think something has clearly changed. I don't know exactly what. His raw stuff is about the same, but his ability to locate has improved dramatically.
Todd
12:33
I'm preemptively sad about the lockout and spending all offseason not knowing if there will be a full 2022.  Having worked in a front office, do you think some kind of fan boycott of team owners' other business interests could be an effective way to pressure owners to come to an agreement?
Kevin Goldstein
12:33
Nope.
Kw
12:33
Let’s say the Cubs win one and drop two against the Brewers, putting them 4.0 games behind the Brewers in the Central. Should Jed Hoyer sell in that position? Should he sell if the Brewers sweep and the Cubs end up 6 games back in the Central?
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