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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:01
Hi everyone. It's been way too long. Let's get right into it.
James
12:01
At this point all Tatis needs to do in order to wrap up the NL MVP award is stay on the field, yeah?
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
That seems more than a little strong to me. I don't think he's a lock at all, but I'm far from the award voting expert . . .
Matt Damon
12:02
What do you think is Reid Detmers' ceiling? Also, Saving Private Ryan is a great film
Kevin Goldstein
12:03
I think it's going to be interesting to watch how he adjusts to life in the big leagues. I think the off-speed stuff is off high quality, but the fastball seems to get hit . . . a lot. Going to be some usage and sequencing challenges along the way.
Dave
12:03
Will Jake Arrieta ever pitch in the majors again?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
I think that's up to Jake. I'm sure he could get an NRI next spring if he wanted one.
Snit
12:04
Please alleviate my worries and tell me that Freddie will resign with the Braves
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
He probably will. Nothing is 100% until the contract is done obviously, but he probably will.
>this guy<
12:04
Contreras and Hendricks are moving this winter, right? Cubs farm is like 2 years at least from bearing real fruit
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
I mean, they have to field a team, right? I think they should listen on both. The notion that Contreras is someone you can build around is a weird narrative in the Chicago media.
Greg
12:06
What do you think of Austin Riley going forward? Is the 135 wRC+ sustainable for him?
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
Certainly plenty of arrows moving in the right direction. There's no reason to rule it out.
ML
12:06
Is Andrew Vaughn a future star?
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
I certainly think he's going to be a very good hitter.
ML
12:07
Who would your rather have for the next decade-Spencer Torkelson or Andrew Vaughn?
Kevin Goldstein
12:08
Like them both, and think there are some similarities in their skillsets, but I think Tork is a tic better across the board.
Chris
12:08
Why is AJ Hinch getting so much manager of the year love from the national media but Scott servais isn't? Shouldn't servais be the favorite for the award?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
I don't know, Chris. I thought the Mariners were a sneaky good team heading into the year, like a real .500 team. I thought the Tigers were a 90+ loss team. I don't like how the manager of the year award tends to go to how exceeded expectations the most, but if that's how it is, it's A.J. At the same time, it's an award. It doesn't really matter in any real way.
Zirinsky
12:10
Hi Kevin, love these chats.  Question: the Yankees offense has underperformed all season, pretty much, with a team mostly full of players in their primes.  When you're in the front office, how do you approach trying to "fix" something like that, and do you ever just say: "Well, our analytics show that this is mostly bad luck (like hitting with RISP) and...we have to ride it out"?
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
Sure, sometimes you say that, but you say that only if that is actually the case. People are assuredly spending days on some of these players in an attempt to figure out what is going on, and while usually there's a reason, sometimes it really is just a bad dice roll.
Arby’s
12:12
When a player has a season like Braden Shewmake, where they’re just awful for a few weeks and then more or less as expected going forward, what do you make of it?  Do you just think about the season line as a whole?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
I think with all of the weirdness of the last 18 months, it's pretty easy to just write off a slow start.
Guest
12:13
Do teams have organizational philosophies like "we value contact skills above all else," are team differences mostly noise, or are teams typically more flexible and just operate under "value is value"
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
There certainly is a lot of overlap. Runs are runs. I believe that. If some guys is worth five runs with the bat or five runs with his glove or five runs on the basepaths, those five runs are five runs and runs are runs.
TP in ME
12:14
Seen lots of grousing on Twitter from reporters about the sorry state of the Orioles over the past several years, which has me wondering about what an upward trajectory looks like. Given that lots of place now have them as the #1 or 2 farm system, is now the time for them to start buying even though all those pieces might not be ready yet?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
It's certainly time to start seeing what you have and figuring out what this team is going to look like if/when they are good.
Bob Dole
12:15
Can the Cardinals make a run at the wild card?
Kevin Goldstein
12:15
It's unlikely, but not out of the question.
Guest
12:15
do front offices stick around on home game days because that's a perk of the job to sit and watch the big league product? or is there actual work that can only be done in person and watching the team play?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
Front offices are a LOT of people. Some stay for the games, some go home after a full day's work. Some stay a few innings and go. Some need to stay because of game-day duties. Lots of variation.
Guest
12:17
What was the internal projection for Hader at the time of that trade?  And a related question, what traits signal potential for big gains when moving a SP prospect to the bullpen?
Kevin Goldstein
12:17
I thought he was a reliever and not a starter, but I didn't think he'd be any kind of dominant closer. Players change, often dramatically...
Guest
12:18
In your view, what level of impact does a baseball manager have? I've always thought a manager will often lose more games than win them while providing stability in the locker room and dugout primarily. And some are perfect fits, like Counsell, for the demeanor of the team. But to what effect? It may be too narrow a view but am open to seeing a bigger window.
Kevin Goldstein
12:19
I think it's a very large impact and goes well beyond some sort of strategy-to-run measurements. You talk about the stability, but I think one of the manager's primary jobs is to get the best possible performance out of players.
Birdman Bassett
12:20
Generic q, but your thoughts on Bobby Witt Jr?
Kevin Goldstein
12:20
Generic a, he's really good.
JD
12:20
Are there still pop-up prospects surprising scouts in the complex leagues, or at this point does the community have a handle on which prospects made developmental leaps over the past months-to-year behind the scenes?
Kevin Goldstein
12:21
Definitely pop-ups in the complex leagues, as so many of these players are making their stateside debut after spending the beginning of their careers at complexes in the DR.
5ToolFun
12:22
Im an aspiring scout. been In Arizona watching rookie league games the last week as a stop off in the middle of my move to Friendswood, TX. Taken an online course through SMWW w/ Dan Evans and Hank Jones, Ive been using what Ive learned out here, but you being familiar with the Houston area, any tips for me once I get down there? Thanks Kevin.
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