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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 8/23/2021
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Kevin Goldstein
12:01
Hi everyone. It's Monday, it's almost September, and things are heating up, at least in baseball. Let's get to your questions.
Jon G
12:01
DJ Herz is running extreme strikeout rates in an age-appropriate assignment. He's also been fairly inefficient, walking a fair amount and struggling to get beyond the first few innings. How certain of a relief projection is this, and conditional on a relief role, what is the upside?
Kevin Goldstein
12:02
He has a three pitch mix, he moves well and he's in his first full season, so while there is definitely reliever risk due to command and pitch efficiency issues, it's far to early to just assume he's a pen piece. No reason to move him to the pen yet.
braves
12:02
looking for your thoughts on Indigo Diaz, he's REALLY come on strong this year. Does he look like a stud RP in the bigs?
Kevin Goldstein
12:03
He's pretty damn interesting. Big fastball in terms of both velocity and shape and the slider has improved as well. Definitely worth tracking.
Zev
12:03
Please talk me off the ledge about the 2021 Red Sox.
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
A. Our odds still have them at a 70+ percent chance of reaching the post-season.
B. It's sports. You should never be on the ledge when it comes to sports.
Peterman
12:04
Screwed up the first submission—last week there was a video going around twitter of J-Rod absolutely murdering a 60mph meatball lobbed into his wheelhouse. How do front offices account for the huge gaps of talent a prospect might face in the minor leagues?
Kevin Goldstein
12:04
I mean, it's one PA among hundreds, so it's not going to throw off anything.
Greg
12:05
Why was Gregory Polanco placed on outright waivers rather than DFA’d? What’s the difference? What happens now?
Kevin Goldstein
12:05
He's on waivers, so if anyone wants him, they can have him. If nobody does, they can rescind them and keep him, which they will likely do. DFA would force an excise from the roster.
Cynthia
12:06
Who is the best teenage pitching prospect you've ever seen? Felix Hernandez is a name I've heard answered to this question, and Dylan Bundy and Julio Urias might be the best of the past decade.
Kevin Goldstein
12:06
Clayton Kershaw at Great Lakes in 2007.
(I'm not young)
Luxury Tax Enthusiast
12:07
What do you think a realistic number for the first LT threshold would be? 230 million? 250 million? We all complain about the Dodgers and the Yankees of the world but they need to keep running high payrolls if player salaries are going to continue to advance forward.
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
Why do we need any thresholds?
Dmitry
12:07
Why do batters get the "green light" for 3-0 counts? Why wouldnt they just swing based on the pitch as usual, instead of getting authorization before the fact??
Kevin Goldstein
12:07
A green light is just that. Swing if you want to instead of auto-take. It's not an auto-swing, it's just you are allowed to swing.
Bill
12:08
Drey Jameson has been really good this season. Have opinions changed on him to the point where he is seen as a future MLB starter now? Seems a good deal of write-ups I could find about him preseason suggested he was most likely bullpen bound at the MLB level. Thanks Kevin!
Kevin Goldstein
12:09
I think a lot of that was size bias. I thing he's super athletic and definitely has a chance to start, but it's not a slam dunk. He's only thrown 60+ innings this year, so the jury is still out.
tim815
12:09
What is the likelihood of any substantive MLB Draft change, to prevent teams (ececutives) from sending out sub-standard rosters late in the season? There are a few ways it (change) could happen, but if the league is good with the current Cubs roster, why would there be any desire for change?
Kevin Goldstein
12:10
It's hard to say, because the draft is usually the last thing either sides worries about, unfortunately.
B
12:10
What numbers, roughly, do you think would get the job done on the tax threshold/salary floor negotiations? I can’t imagine the players would agree on a cap. At least at a number the owners would be willing to go to
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
I don't know, and neither to the players. There's no way to accurately come up with a fair number until the owners open their books, and that's not going to happen.
Jim
12:11
Heard anything on Braves prospect Vaughn Grissom - .409 OBP as a 20 year old seems pretty good in Low-A.
Kevin Goldstein
12:11
He is pretty good! I like the bat, in terms of on-base skills and contact ability, but worry that he's not a SS, which puts more pressure on the offense.
Bill
12:12
Is George Valera ready for a promotion to Double A?
Kevin Goldstein
12:12
Maybe . . . probably. Not the end of the world if they don't.
Alan
12:12
Would you rank Nick Yorke in the top 100 prospects if he goes to Greenville and continues to rake?
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
Personally I would, but a promotion really doesn't play into it for me.
Kyle
12:13
Hey, thanks for doing this. Peyton Battenfield has been pretty sturdy at every stop this year, and seems to be doing it in spite of no pitch being called "plus" or "plus plus" by MLB or Fangraphs. Is he just using his mix well, and does that bode well for him as a potential starter? Or is he still a single-inning relief type?
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
He has plus pitches. Period. Shapes are really good.
Alan
12:13
Thoughts on Marcelo Mayer's power potential? He just homered for the second straight game, and he's still 18
Kevin Goldstein
12:13
It's huge power potential. That's one of the many reasons he was the top talent in the draft.
AL Central Enjoyer
12:13
What do you think the AL Central will look like in 2022? Chicago looks formidable, Cleveland could be even better, Detroit has been one of the best teams in the league since May, and the Twins can't be this bad again, right?
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
This is a fun question. I don't have a really insightful answer for you, but I certainly agree that many of us will be AL Central Enjoyers.
Derek
12:14
Wander Franco is very good!
Kevin Goldstein
12:14
Did anyone tell you otherwise?
Mitch Meluskey
12:14
Regarding the CBA - how are comp picks/QOs covered for this season and the 2022 draft if they are done away with in the next CBA? QOs will still exist for this upcoming free agent class since it is covered under the current CBA, correct?
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