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Kiley McDaniel - 12/5/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Hello from the ATL. Head to fangraphs.com/prospects for our latest content, including the NL Central lists wrapping up this week with the NL East coming up next. Podcast going up later today
Jake Jortles
12:24
How bad was that Segura trade for the Mariners?  Seemed pretty terrible from here.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
The Paxton deal was on the lower end of fine. This deal was maybe a little below that, in part because the market for SS's isn't large, there was guaranteed money, everyone knew he didn't get along with Dee Gordon and SEA was aggressively dumping guaranteed money. Luckily they found a match of another team trying to dump money nobody wanted (Carlos Santana) that also had an MLB-ready everyday shortstop.
12:27
And by fine I mean the cold, economic asset value range--the Paxton deal was $35-50M in value for like $30-40M in value--where trades generally, in a vacuum tend to match up pretty well. The Segura deal had extenuating circumstances
Lilith
12:27
Is it likely that Bobby Witt Jr is going to fall in the draft due to his age and contact issues?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Fall would be relative to where he is now and everyone know his age now, so that's not an issue in terms of where he's headed. He'll probably slide up a bit (we cover this in the podcast that's coming out today) as he performed well at Jupiter and with Team USA, answering some of those contact questions.
Anthony
12:28
What's your take on the 'ban the shift' question?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
Completely absurd. It's a small fraction of at bats. It won't make a giant difference, it's just traditionalists that think this will stop the three true outcomes momentum, which isn't a clear good or bad, and it will just make a small dent.
Joe
12:30
Loved the write-up about the Reds minor league system.  Where would they rank approximately right now against the rest of the league?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
This doesn't factor in changes we'll make in grades over the winter and trades, but here's a decent idea (they were 6th at the end of the season):  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/
Gregory
12:31
I saw this rumor earlier today and as a Giants fan, should I be excited about a potential return of JoJo Romero, Spencer Howard, and Daniel Brito for Bumgarner?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
That's probably about as good as you'll do. I might even expect less. That's probably three 45s for us, but could be a couple 50s by midseason.
Jordan
12:32
Can I chat here and lead a conference call at the same time?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
Depends how many questions you submit
Oyster Burns
12:33
any added skepticism when a prospect is traded twice?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
not really. if he's traded when the drafting team is going for it, then the acquiring team goes from selling to buying pretty quickly...it could just be he's a guy with universal trade value which is a general positive but kinda neutral.
Roger
12:34
does nimmo, gimenez, kay get it done for realmuto? then sign pollock. am I crazy or the mets going all in will still leave them 4th in the division on paper?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
That should get you in the ballpark
and the NL East is getting real interesting and also the Marlins
Anthony
12:34
Where are you at on JP Crawford now? Still see a 3-4 win shortstop there?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Eric and I just discussed him. 45 or 50 now, 50 or 55 future. I'd say 50 now/55 future and there's some chance for more, but that's the median projeciton
Sandy
12:35
How full of horse manure is driveline? Do teams drink the kool aid?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
LOL well the smart ones do and many of the dumb ones share your opinion, so I'll let you do the math.
12:38
I mean the best teams in the highest profile situations have guys throwing fuzz, lots of strikeouts, tinkering and finding ways to maximize performance, hitting bombs...this isn't exactly and only what Driveline does but it mostly is...so what did you think the answer would be?
Weenie
12:38
Do you think the Mariners will trade Mitch Haniger? Should they?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
I think he's the one they keep. Seager is the one they'll hold until he appreciates some, then they'll move him. Both informed guesses.
Oyster Burns
12:39
who makes the playoffs first- Os or Miami?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
I'll lean Miami b/c the NL East could cycle down a bit but the AL East has a clear financial advantage over the O's that they'll have to win 90 games to have a chance and the other four teams are so far ahead with personnel
Davis
12:40
What happened to the Yankees system? Yikes! Maybe they learn from Chance Adams and cash in Johnny Lasagna/Mikey King while they’ve got some value
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
They traded the prospects so the big league team will keep making the playoffs...?
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
12:41
What’s been the biggest change from having Cistulli as editor to Rowley?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Less gardening and pennyfarthing references being snuck into my articles
Laviska
12:44
Which team is going to steal the offseason by trading for Bumgarner AND Kluber? Maybe an angry Klentak after whiffing on free agency?
Bob
12:44
What are the Mets doing?  15 teams have talked to the Marlins about Realmuto and came away thinking their ask is insane, and yet here we are, willing to talk about Nimmo, Rosario, etc.  Does BVW know free agency exists?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
Man I forgot how insane fans become when there's no games
Paul
12:45
Is there a consensus in the league about how much value winning in the minors has?  Building confidence and  establishing a winning culture etc.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
Everyone would rather do it than not do it, but if you start running prospect relievers out there three days in a row, not letting lefty hitters face lefty pitching, etc...you are probably hurting their prospect status and that doesn't really happen, so it's just a matter of degrees
Bob Sacamano
12:47
Do the Braves have any sleeper prospects in their system currently?  Someone who you think is currently undervalued perhaps?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
That list is coming likely Friday or Monday
making calls today/tomorrow, mostly
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