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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/16/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
Hello from ATL, just returned from Seattle and some delightful time with Eric and Meg including (huge shocker) great food and also Driveline Pro Day, which we'll be writing up soon
Scout is wandering around the house trying to decide on which toy to play with while I'm at the computer
Andre
12:18
Does Kyle Wright or Ian Anderson have the stuff of a number one in the making?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
We don't see every #1 starter coming in advance, like Cliff Lee and maybe Jacob deGrom, but we see most of them coming (i.e. they were deemed to have ace upside before they did ace things). So, very unlikely for Wright/Anderson. Both have a chance to be a #2 but I would say #3 is what you're realistically hoping for, which is a perennial 3 WAR player
12:21
If we say every pro pitcher has some non-zero chance of being an ace or every position player has some chance of putting up a 5 WAR season (call it 0.1%), Wright/Anderson are maybe 1-5%, so don't plan on it, but they're still elite in that they're over 1% and that's a very small population of pitchers.
And I'm eye-balling those numbers, but I think that rings true
Dale Sveum
12:21
A lot has been made of the growing gap between the amount of revenue the Yankees generate and the amount they put into payroll. Has the amount of money they spend on player development replaced some of the money they spend on payroll?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
As far as I know, they spend pretty freely on infrastructure and I'm pretty sure they have the biggest international staff and are probably close to if not the biggest amateur/draft staff, so yes. If you mean they spend $20M more than everyone else, then pretty sure that's a no.
MaineBall
12:23
Is there anything in the CBA that prevents teams from paying minor leaguers more money?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
Not that I'm aware of. I think technically offering draftees a significantly higher salary would be against the "circumventing the bonus pools in any way we haven't yet outlined." That's also in a contract that has no guaranteed money (can release at any time for no cost). Paying draftees six-year FA money (the highest salary in a minors-only deal is like $150k, more common high salary would be like $100k for Quad-A types with no MLB language) wouldn't really change the bonuses much and just infuriate MLB and the other owners for moving the bar up when you didn't have to.
Bodie
12:27
Toss Up: Sean Hjelle or Jake Wong? I’ll hang up and listen
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Hjelle. He was 53 vs. Wong at 93 in the pre-draft rankings. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1
12:29
If we haven't gotten to your team yet, the year-end MILB rankings or the J2/draft ones are going to be the same grade we come up for the list like 85% of the time.
Wendall
12:29
How excited should Royals fans be about their young arms? Could Lynch, Kowar, Singer, De La Rosa, etc... accelerate the rebuild? Potential for a 2015 Mets type impact in 2020?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Early returns sound positive, but doesn't seem like a rare, once every 5-10 years group of talent. But to have that months after the draft would mean the other 29 teams all drafted pretty poorly. You're lucky to get one 1st rounder that was misjudged this quickly (like Nate Pearson the year before)
Kat
12:30
How do you resolve arguments about a player where the scouting says one thing and the stats another?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
YELL LOUDER
12:32
Eric and I dig deeper and figure out which piece of info has more truth in it, either by calling more scouts or digging into the details of why their stats don't agree with the reports. It's normally pretty easy to figure out. We struggle with the guys where it's soon after a big injury or lowly-drafted player with significantly different reports/stats than pre-draft and we're trying to factor in things that we don't know much about now but will know a lot more about in a few months. We'll be quick to adjust up/down as it becomes clear early in the season and also flag that guy to be someone we try to see ourselves.
Omar
12:33
First time, long time; thanks for taking my question! As a Blue Jays fan I can’t help but feel like we wasted a pick on Griffin Conine because of his last name. He had S&M issues on PEDs and now won’t be on them post suspension. Talk me off the ledge.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
lol ok well it's one second round pick and most of those return nothing anyway
12:34
secondly Conine raked on the Cape and has plus raw power, so, no amazingly, no matter how much fans think so, no player gets drafted because of his last name...aside from the 30th round favor/doesn't sign thing. That's often about their name.
12:35
also I would argue that last name should matter some b/c that are genetic things (health, eyes, etc.) that appear to be passed down more often from former MLB players than from non-MLB players. It's literally science, but not clear in how we understand that, but there's a reason that Ken Griffey Sr's son is WAY more likely to be good at specifically baseball than you or even another really good high school showcase circuit player.
12:36
And some of that may be instruction at an early age, exposure to the clubhouse, etc. but you aren't getting that, so it is an unfair advantage they have
Periwinkle
12:36
Rays' system overview coming up next. What do you guys think of Jesus Sanchez, is this the time for him to jump into the FV55 tier?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
Rays list will be locked shortly, have a last call after I finish here. It's super crazy long and there's lots of fun pop up names that I'm pretty sure you won't know because I didn't know a lot of them until the last week.
Sanchez is tough because it all comes down to his approach
It could improve a good bit and lets him reach his upside of 6 hit/6 power, above D in RF
12:38
or it could stay about where it is and he's Avisail Garcia...and he gets nontendered by the Rays and signs with the White Sox 5 years from now.
That's a good example of the "tough to project, but it's high variance so we'll be quick to adjust when it looks like it's turning up/down in-season" type of player
Dale
12:39
How would you rank the 2013 J2 class now. What order would you put Devers, Torres and Jimenez as they enter the 2019 season. Does the 2017 class have a chance to be as good as the 2013 class appears to be.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
I have a project kinda like this coming up actually
12:43
For 2013 I made it (a couple months ago, but I think I'd stick with this):
1. Ozzie Albies
2. Gleyber Torres
3. Eloy Jimenez
4. Victor Robles
5. Rafael Devers
6. Luis Urias
7. Adonis Medina
8. Yandy Diaz
9. Micker Adolfo
10. Dinelson Lamet
Numbers 1, 2, 3, 5 and 9 were at the MLB J2 showcase, I believe it was the first one and I was on four of those five, but kinda tossed out Albies b/c he was so tiny (shrugs)
12:44
Does this looking back at a J2 class sort of thing interest you as #content
Bro! (91.7% | 265 votes)
 
Nah (8.3% | 24 votes)
 
Total Votes: 289
12:46
And yes, that's a very strong J2 class
For reference, 2017 includes
12:50
Wander Franco (TBR)
Shohei Ohtani (should he count?)
Luis Garcia (PHI)
Brayan Rocchio (CLE)
Kristian Robinson (ARI)
Ronny Mauricio (NYM)
Julio Rodriguez (SEA)
Everson Periera. among other Yankees candidates (NYY)
Antoni Flores (BOS)
George Valera (CLE)
Eric Pardinho (TOR)
Jelfry Marte (TBR)

sadly, Daniel Flores (C, BOS) may have been #3 on this list behind Ohtani/Franco if he hadn't tragically died. Some truly insane tools, really fun to watch.
Those are all potential 50 or better FV guys in the next couple years, so that's also very strong
12:51
there's one more sleeper for TBR from that class that's a 40 FV on their list
Jackson
12:51
Is it shady that the Padres are openly discussing trading Kluber with other teams even though he’s still an Indian?
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