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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/22/20
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Hello from ATL! Scout is eating lunch and I've got a busy day so let's get going before a quick review of recent pieces
and post Ozuna signing, there's lots of ATL questions in the queue but I'll try to limit them
12:22
I also wrote about what's next for the Astros: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-next-for-the-astros/
12:23
and Prospects Week is set for February but lemme find the actual date for you
12:24
on Feb 10
through that whole week
and lastly
we wrote a book
to your questions:
Pat's Bat
12:24
Did you submit a fake fangraphs Hall of Fame ballot?  Who was on it?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
I did not and I guess I'm one of the few professional baseball writers who doesn't really care about the HOF? There's so much illogical nonsense and grandstanding that I choose to not expend energy on it.
12:26
That being said, Jay Jaffe is the best at analyzing it and congrats to the people who were notified about their induction while wearing a Spongebob shirt
Mister Baseball Man
12:26
Did one of you guys say the Tigers list is basically done and will be posted soon or did I dream that?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
They are probably next? We've done a good bit of work on them
v2micca
12:26
Possibly silly question.  Is a four-seam fastball with good spin rate and thus good vertical movement less effective when thrown in the bottom of the strike zone?  And if so, how much less effective than throwing it at the top?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
generally yes. the unexpected (to the hitter's eye) movement ideally fits at the top of the zone, moving above it, rather than into the zone. also the approach angle of the pitch is another variable you aren't addressing here that make the answer easier and we address it in detail in the book actually
short version is shallow approach angle is best up in the zone, steep is best down in the zone. try to not have an average approach angle for your pitch
Someone’s Mom
12:29
could they really have been using buzzers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
they definitely could have, we just don't know if they did
Someone’s Mom
12:29
Can you imagine being mad a mike fiers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
That does seem like a weird angle to take on all of this. I get that the culture of baseball is anti-snitch and that's fine, but the unspoken part is we're anti-snitch because they're gonna come for us one day...because we're breaking the rules, too. But then the players argue for wanting an even playing field...?
12:32
And if the argument is the betrayal of someone breaking the code of the clubhouse, that's just an extremely weak argument because, like, don't cheat.

And even if we want to grant that players will cheat regardless (which is quite something), then don't cheat in such an obvious way that the whole team knows and so when thirty players that know are on other teams, it is inevitable that everyone will know and you'll get caught?
12:33
Like did no one on the Astros think this would ever get out? It's like the most inevitable thing in the world. Almost everyone paying any attention to this knew this was happening in some way years ago and just couldn't prove it. It was all one on-the-record quote from one of dozens of former teammates from being public and then invalidating a huge swath of your career. For some extra hits. Really, guys?
12:34
The best case scenario is it doesn't come out in a confirmed way until after your career ends and you get 10 years of benefit from it and the whole league hated you your whole career and now all your stats are sullied after you've banked 15% more money instead of during your career
Like most plans, this was a bad one
Someone’s Mom
12:35
Why didnt the astros lose any int’l money?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Covered this last week, but there's no logical reason why J2 money wasn't part of the punishment
James
12:35
What is life like for someone like Nick Bitsko right now, as far as being approached by the professional world? He's just declared he's gonna go in the draft, probably gonna be top-10ish, make $6 or $7 million, right? So are agents approaching him? Are pro teams allowed to interact with him now? Are they all rushing to get advanced readings on him cause they thought he was gonna come out next year? Does the NCAA prohibit or care about any of this like they do with basketball/football?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
I'd pump the brakes on definite top 10 pick b/c he's a prep RHP after all, so I'd say anywhere from pick 5 to pick 50 is his 25 to 75 percentile range
12:38
I'll set his over/under at 16.5 overall pick.

I don't know if he has an agent already but I think he does; usually reclassifying happens once the agent is in play, but not always. We get questions from agents about 2022 kids, so 2 to 3 years before draft day, agents are on these the top prospects.
12:39
Pro teams are always allowed to interact with prep prospects, it's colleges that have restrictions
Luckily Bitsko went to a summer event (East Coast Pro) that was heavily scouted and had TrackMan, so they have as much info on him as later-emerging prep arms
DJ Tanner
12:39
How do teams select which prospects to bring to Spring Training? Seeing some similar prospects (age/level) on teams where one gets the invite and other does not. For example, Giants invite Bart but not Heliot (both AA last year). DBacks invite Perdomo but not Alek Thomas (both in A+ last year, same age). Curious on thought process if there is one.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
A lot of it is how much the coaches like them and how advanced they are mentally, but also will they get added to the 40-man next year, is there a veteran they should be able to learn from, etc. The actual skill level isn't in the top couple criteria once you grant that we're talking about non A-Ball top prospects.
12:41
(Bart has Posey)
It can also be a reward for doing stuff the org likes, even something as little as offseason camps
Someone’s Mom
12:41
Why havent the Padres aquired an ace?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
1/It's expensive
2/I think they think Patino/Gore/Paddack will fill that role
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