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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/22/20
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Andrew
12:44
Been doing a lot of research for an upcoming minor league prospect draft. I think I will miss out on many of the top first year players and international signees. Been focusing on Drew Waters, Alek Thomas, and Corbin Carroll. Would you rank them in this order? The speed aspect of Carroll makes me want to take him prior to the other two.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
I would put them in that order, yes
Will
12:45
Looking at the BA Top 100 that was just posted today, and they also have average exit velocities in their player evaluations. There's some notable discrepancies between what's in their blurbs and what's on THE BOARD, so was hoping you could give us some insight on why that may be.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
I assume they get it from asking teams as well, but there's a couple different ways to calculate it and teams have proprietary ways of correcting/cleaning the data as well, so no two teams have the exact same numbers for everyone, but they should be pretty similar.
Yo Soy La Manzana
12:46
Prime Lebron James if he played baseball is a X/X/X hitter with X SB and X HR
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Not very good. He's enormous w/no evidence of swing qualities of Aaron Judge
Zach
12:47
Braden Shewmake‘s stock seems to have risen a bit since the draft. Does he now have the ceiling of an everyday SS/2B?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
I think he did before, but the odds and proximity have improved
12:48
and ceiling is a little higher
Garth Flamingoes
12:48
Any 2020 J2 kids making that Franco/Luciano/Dominguez type buzz yet?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Nope, I'd guess 45 is the top FV we give in this class apart from Cuban defectors
Sirras
12:48
Having worked in a front office, what's a major part of the job that most of us out here wouldn't think about?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Politics get in the way of doing a good job more than you'd guess and the hours are even more insane than you think
Matthew
12:49
Do you think the way the astros run their system necessarily creates the toxic environment that manfred warned about, or can a team be as analytically inclined and efficient and avoid the negatives?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
They can be analytically-inclined and have morals, but it is unlikely a team can be defiantly pushing the boundaries of analytics/corporatization and not have stuff like this happen. This is the logical extreme of that approach and they were at the extreme.

Defiantly is the key, though. You can be at the forefront and stay out of trouble. I would also submit that the other teams that are rumored to have been stealing signs in an organized way (anecdotally, of course) are almost all on the progressive end of things.
Guest
12:52
Robot umps, how long until completely integrated?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
I would guess either 2022 (new CBA) or the one after that, say 2026-2027
fulltimesavage
12:54
Trevor Bauer recently said on the Pardon My Take podcast that he believes that it's possible, though unlikely, that some members of the Astros could have been unaware of the cheating.  Is he just talking about bullpen guys who can't hear the trash can from the dugout?  I can't see how any other players wouldn't have known.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
I would think pitchers have plausible deniability, since there's no reason for them to be involved, so they wouldn't really know what's going on unless they asked around. There's plenty of rumors that teams have the bullpen helping with sign stealing, but off-day SP wouldn't be in the loop.
Jim Crane the Innocent
12:55
How did Nick Frasso look this summer with Team USA?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
Projection, okay command, above FB/CB
GSon
12:57
which cuban defectors?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
Currently, it's RHP Norge Vera, and OFs Oscar Colas and Pedro Leon. I'd guess they all wait until 2020 and the first two both seem ticketed for well into the 7 figures. Vera is 40+ or 45. Not sure what the other two are yet.
Here's Josh Herzenberg on Vera's workout in the States: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cuban-right-hander-norge...
Vera is throwing again the DR in a few weeks
The Amish
12:59
What FV grade would you give Starling Aguilar? Is he basically a lock to sign with the Mariners?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
Probably 40 and it's not the Mariners
Jeff
12:59
I've noticed a ton of scouts using the term "hook" lately. Is that just a catchall phrase for a breaking ball or can you explain further?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
It's one of many
Jeff Luhnow
12:59
How hard would it have been for me to continue to run the Astros while I was suspended?  Encrypted chat apps would allow me to communicate with my lieutenants without anyone knowing, and given technology, there's no reason for me to be actually at the park -- I can do everything I was doing anyway remotely.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
1/There's probably gonna be a new GM relatively soon
2/If it goes well, you won't get credit and likely it'll work against your legacy even more
3/you got a payout of some amount to do nothing, so like, take a nap or something
4/you'd kill any chance of working in MLB and maybe any higher level business

but other than that it sounds great
graphman
1:02
was patrick mahomes anything as a baseball prospect? he was in the back of the BA top 500 in his HS draft year, not sure how much he developed when he played at texas tech, but the athleticism would seem great on the mound
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
Intriguing two-way guy that needed to go to college but showed glimpses of top 3-4 round talent as 3B/OF and RHP
Clint Eastwood
1:03
I want to scout. How should I work a game I’m attending? Radar gun, stopwatch, notebook with rosters. Take notes selectively, chart every pitch, go down the line to see swings? I’m unsure what the priorities should be.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
We go into this in a lot of detail in the book, but I'd recommend sitting behind home and trying to identify each pitch type as a good first step. Keeps you engaged on each pitch and then you can branch out to more complicated stuff
1:05
To a question I won't publish from Mike about regretting a decision, I appreciate the sentiment
Okay now we'll run through all the Braves questions at once
Gary
1:05
Which of the Braves 2019 picks were you most positively surprised by the reviews on?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:06
Braden Shewmake, Michael Harris, Bryce Ball, Vaughn Grissom. DeVito, Paolini and Backstrom beyond that.
Larry
1:06
How concerning is Ian Anderson's spin rate on his curveball? I'm a little new in understanding spin rate, but how is it possible for a curveball to be effective if the spin rate isn't good?
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