JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 2/23/18

Kiley McDaniel

11:33

Leave your question here and I'll be back at noon eastern to chat. See my twitter @kileymcd for my notes from the MLB Int'l showcase (July 2nd, 2018 eligible Latin prospects) this week and Carson tells me that my post with tons of draft info will be going up shortly.

Kiley McDaniel

12:04

Inception

Kiley McDaniel

12:04

whoa

Matt

12:04

This isn't where I parked my Jeff Sullivan

Kiley McDaniel

12:04

You will be able to find him here next week and me in my rightful place next week!

He Hate Me

12:06

Given that pitchers have a higher injury risk than hitters, does it make sense to focus more on hitters in the draft and then trade some of your seasoned hitting prospects (some of whom might be blocked) for young pitchers that have proven to be durable in their first few seasons? This seems to be the opposite of what the Braves have done (closer to what the Cubs are doing?).

Kiley McDaniel

12:08

There's definitely some merit to that approach and it may be the most correct broad approach, given the research I've seen. That said, miss or make a couple high profile picks/trades and your broad strategy choice doesn't really matter and you could argue that once an ace has revealed themselves, you're never getting them, so you have to try to sign them as an amateur. No correct answer here.

He Hate Me

12:09

Several teams have broached the subject of the 6-man rotation but would piggy-backing at the 5th starter spot be a better idea, to see if one guy can win the job outright? It doesn’t force the ace to make fewer starts and would make sense for a guy like Ohtani (or really any Japanese import) to piggy-back in April/May in order to ease into a 5-day schedule. To me, throwing 3 guys for 3 IP each might be even better, as one or more of them could be available for an inning or two between "starts" and you get three chances to unearth a breakout guy instead of two. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

12:11

Much like the previous question, this makes sense but answer comes down to context. What keeps your specific pitchers healthy most effectively? What best deploys their specific strengths (i.e. multiple aces then a bunch of fringy guys or no ace and lots of backend guys)? What will get buy in from the players and, eventually agents and other players? Coaches and prospects also matter, so, again, the academic answer, whatever it may be, likely isn't the completely correct one. And I don't think you can even really approach without considering that above stuff.

Jack

12:12

What makes Ryan Vilade a promising prospect? What does he have to do in full season ball to earn his way onto a top 100?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Basically, he's average to above at everything. Good feel for the game and makeup--his dad is a coach at Oklahoma State. If the performance is there and he stays healthy, he could be a guy. You have my permission to scout the stat line a little bit on him.

Kvn

12:13

What does Tommy John surgery mean for Honeywell's FV?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Since the recovery rate is something like 80% and FV is future value, it's probably the same, just will take longer and more risk than before

Oliver

12:13

All the commentary I’ve read about Tristen Lutz praises his power. What is the reputation on his hit tool? How good he can be?

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

I'd look for a 5 bat and 6 or 7 game power, playing an average RF. That's kinda the expectation if you like him. And that's obviously really good. Risk is the distance to the majors, time to maturity and contact/not getting to the power in games.

Luzinski'sSweatyGooch

12:14

Are you and Eric ever going to do a podcast together? Because...well, you two might be able to cover a lot more ground between the two of you vs CC’s stops and starts and general flights of fancy.

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

Flights of fancy that never take off or hand out the fair trade peanuts

Marcus

12:15

Glad to be able to read your work again. Many names for the 2018 July 2 class seem to be connected to teams already, but the usually aggressive Yankees don't seem to be coming up with any of them. Is there anything to that, or do you expect them to be as active they were this year?

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

Almost every scout I talk to calls the MLB event "pro scouting" since almost every player has a deal and you can't get them. So, it's like scouting a DSL or Rookie league all star game. NYY may have the best recent track record of signings and there's plenty of instances where spending money doesn't get you much, so I'd focus more on if my team is creating Frecier Perez's out of nothing instead of if they get headlines on July 2nd.

felix unger's duster

12:17

Colin Moran HR total this year -- O/U 24.5

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

I'll go under

Earl of Baltimore

12:18

any inside/industry folks know what is actually going on in the Baltimore front office? the articles this week on the Cashner & Tillman signings (*shudders violently*) mentioned Brady & Buck's role in the deals with DD conspicuously absent. All the of the Toronto President stuff and Angelos refusing to let him go from 3 years ago essentially rendering DD lame duck this season? his (and Buck's) contract done this year, he resents PA not letting him go, wants to move on and is asleep at the wheel?

Kiley McDaniel

12:20

Not sure of all the mechanics, but there's a general feeling from the people I've talked to that Buck will be running everything there at some point. Who knows when that actually happens or if Angelos changes his mind?

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:20

Pour one out for Honeywell's UCL. The Rays have no shortage of number 3-5 type guys, but Honeywell was a cut above. Does this materially change the direction the franchise should take in the near future, or should they just stay the course and see what the guys in AAA have to offer?

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

It's a bad day, get well soon Honey. TB didn't seem to be moving their chips in this year, more treading water and aiming for 2019 and 2020 when the cheap kids come up. Now Honeywell now won't accrue any service time until that projected window...so it still kinda fits what they are doing, there's just a little more risk he's not a big part of that future if things don't come all the way back.

Greyson

12:22

Are you going to visit UVA on any scouting trips this year?

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Already scouted them and some notes are coming probably during this chat. Short version: I like Jake McCarthy and don't like how they develop their players.

Chuncey Wiggins

12:22

How aware our FO of fans' opinions?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

More than you'd think. Doesn't mean they act on it, but fans know way more now than they used to, so you can't just dismiss a revolt like you could before. Also easier to organize and amplify a revolt, like with TB and PIT fans this offseason

Debbie Downer

12:23

Is this another prospect chat?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

Not this again

Jim

12:24

Kiley, Your take. Collusion, or did EVERY... SINGLE... AGENT... simultaneously lose the ability to read the market accurately? Yes, I know, Some players have moved, and the ice is breaking up, but even still, its a very slow offseason !!

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

I think teams have 1) been getting more similar in their methods 2) more careful to avoid longterm deals 3) owners have been getting less involved 4) the league has been getting younger and rookies have been making more of an impact and they're all cheaper than vets 5) it's worked out that deals get better the longer you wait, so teams are seeing how much you can stretch that principle, so we were moving toward this gradually.

What made it all happen now was 1) the big market teams are trying to get under the tax for next offseason 2) Boras overplayed his hand but with more players than usual and 3) teams that can spend, big or middle market, want to wait until next offseason to spend huge money when there's better players.

Blue Jay Matt

12:27

Ross Atkins recently said that Nate Pearson could have gone 1st overall, is Pearson really that good?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

He's really good and he's on our top 100 in a good spot, top 10 in his class. Don't think anyone would take him #1 right now, but that could be a discussion at the end of the year if he really performs--the ceiling is there

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Dan

12:28

Can you do a brief run through how the new CBA affects IFAs?

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

Hard caps, no penalties, Cubans 23 and under get lumped in with Dominican/Venezuelan/etc 16 year olds

Philip

12:29

AAAAAAAAAH BASEBALL

Bork

12:30

Hey not Jeff, does Danny Jansen get called up this year? Seems like other then being blocked by Martin and maybe needing more AA/AAA experience, he's ready.

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Tend to agree, assume he'll get some time this year

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