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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/29/20
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:08
Hello from ATL! Scout is perched beside me watching every owner walking their dog outside and somehow choosing to bark at 10% of them
12:10
We put up the Tigers list yesterday: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-detroit-tigers/
12:11
and we've got a couple of other list in progress, some prospect week/top 100 as well. amateur draft season is just around the corner, with JC games already starting, so keep an eye on our draft rankings here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s...
12:12
we have exactly 1,225 players in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 draft rankings so I feel like you can't want more than that
12:14
I also added some notes to the scouting reports with notes from scrimmages last week. Emerson Hancock, Cole Wilcox, Tanner Burns and Carmen Mlodzinski are ones I can remember that are potential first rounders with new notes/tools/ranks as a result
to your questions:
Rox Fan
12:14
Odds that Jeff Bridich and Nolan Arenado are both employed by the Rockies come Spring Training?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
This whole situation continues to be hard to parse
12:16
I don't understand why COL would let it be pretty public that they were entertaining offers for their franchise player right after he signed a huge extension. When there's so many other things to fix, why try to blow up the thing that's working? And why not immediately say the reports are premature and/or false when it first leaks and shut it down? Him being pissed off is not worth it.
12:18
That said, COL holds on the GMs much longer than most teams in similar situations and I don't know how COL can get a face-saving return for a retail-priced franchise guy with an opt-out when they also don't have a ton of leverage. I assume Arenado opts out if he keeps raking and if something goes sideways, he take the money and stays and it turns into a Stanton/Marlins situation
12:19
This whole thing was super avoidable and I think I've addressed this at least in every other chat since it came up and said that this makes no sense and won't go well and here we are
So, to answer your question, I'd say 92%
TDK
12:19
Thoughts on the Pirates trade of Marte and how Cherington looks to build a winner?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
PIT did well to get Malone/Peguero/J2 money and, while it's only one deal, it makes sense to target higher variance prospects when you're rebuilding in a smaller market, since the odds are higher of getting a 3+ WAR guy, as opposed to getting a bunch of 1-2 WAR guys in AAA with a very small chance of breaking out.
12:21
In lieu of a bangin' core or insane system depth, the micro payroll teams have to take some chances with variance to try to get an outsized return, which is the only way to be able to afford a winner
12:22
which is why TB having both of those things allows them to be more moderate and take low-cost risks like Avisail Garcia since they've got a nice replacement level internally
LS
12:23
Robles had a solid rookie year. Do his exit velos concern you at all since they're bottom of the barrel? And if so, in what way are you adjusting expectations? Thanks Kiley
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
They've always been low and it's been a profile that's mostly speed, defense, position and contact, so there's a clear road to 2.5-3.5 WAR even with lower exit velos. Limits the upside, but he's also 22 so he could grow into more.
Tim
12:25
Can you tell us about Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero and your thoughts on them?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
we provided notes to Jay for his breakdown: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/diamondbacks-add-a-full-time-center-fielde...
12:26
and we already wrote up the Arizona system: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/
so anything I can say will just be in a longer format in one of those places
they're both guys we like with solid growth potential
Duchhess
12:26
It's been interesting to read some of the recently published lists and seeing McKay's stock sort of dragging a little, with some suggesting he lacks a true out pitch to be successful in the majors. This is coming off a very quick (and perhaps unexpected) rise to the majors last year ahead of schedule. Is the star truly dimming here, or is this a case of just being surrounded by #newshinythings
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Haven't paid super close attention to this, but important to note that anywhere from like 15 to 35 on the big list isn't that different and I think readers assume there's big swings from the top to bottom of that range. McKay's profile is a bunch of 55s and a 60 or two on some days. You'd rather have that Cole or Strasburg stuff, but most reliable, non-ace starters are much more like McKay than most prospect fans realize. And a guy that's a solid #2/3 starter and bench bat for 6-7 years is insanely valuable. If he hits that, he'll be right in the top 5-10 of any backward-looking review of these lists.
It's Ashton Kutcher
12:29
Jordan Groshans is supremely interesting to me. I have heard rumblings he would be ranked around Kelenic if he had stayed healthy last year. What type of ceiling are we talking about?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
A bunch of 55s and 60s and performed better than we expected in first year-plus of pro ball. As an amateur, some people would squint and see a Donaldson starter kit and that--a 4-6 WAR 3B--is still the optimistic outcome. I'd expect 2-3 WAR type until we see a little more performance.
Chris
12:31
Who would you say have the best fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup respectively in the minors?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
I would just be picking one of the top names from the searches of our end-of-2019-BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
props to Sean Dolinar for putting together that functionality
Jim Leyland Palmer
12:32
How much disagreement was there between you two with the Manning > Mize ranking?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
They were always going to be within like 10-12 spots of each other on the top 100, so that's already really close. It's basically all tied to Mize's injury history and what that may portend. Aaron Nola had zero arm issues at draft time and has had a couple durability hiccups in pro ball. Mize's history is much more checkered and Manning is basically how you would draw this stuff up in terms of frame, athleticism, improvement, etc.
J
12:34
You’ve mentioned recently that a downside of working in a front office is people with individual agendas/office politics etc. I’ve had an entry level baseball ops role for a few years now, but I know enough about myself that I’m not/wouldn’t be good at dealing with those office politics, so do you think I should keep trying to move forward or maybe look at a different industry?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
Once you're in a front office full-time (which takes most people, including me, many years, among other sacrifices), I'd recommend riding things out and seeing where you end up for at least a few years.

The real key to advancement is a sponsor and, for all you know, your superior could be on the verge of 3 promotions in 5 years and bringing you along for all of them. Once you're in your 40's, that sort of thing is a little less likely if you're still at the lower levels of an office.

I'm describing it in pretty cold, economic terms, but I think that's helpful in broad terms. Sports are similar to the entertainment industry, where there's lots of people trying to get in and the very top is a cool job with lots of money/power.
12:40
So, if your goal is one of those top jobs, proactively put yourself in position for it and if you get no positive feedback for five years, then the odds of getting there are even lower than you initially expected and considering other avenues is a rational decision if you aren't liking the work/life balance and upside. We cover this sort of stuff in the book, too, which reminds me!
Doug
12:40
What does it mean when you write that a hitter's swing is grooved?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Also a book thing! It means it follows a similar path on every swing, where they can only hit certain pitches in certain parts of the zone. Usually it's a muscled-up hitter who can only hit center-cut stuff and struggle to adjust their swing/timing for wrinkles later in the count
12:42
So it usually means they can hit for most of their raw power when a ball is in that zone, but don't hit for average because even higher level colleges can pound certain regions of the zone
then every swing, they're trying to adjust/cheat and it can get real ugly against good pitching
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