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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/30/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:05
Hello friends and also other people, it is time for us to chat
ICYMI, we posted an Orioles list and tomorrow we'll be posting the Yankees list, but I'm taking a quick break from writing reports to chat with you people. Here's the prospects index page with anything you may need from us: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/
Tommy N.
12:05
Mejia, Morejon, Renfroe too much for Realmuto if he doesn’t want an extension?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:06
I don't think Realmuto is being traded with an understanding he'll sign an extension with the new team. I get the impression this is a 2-year rental and then he hits the market and maybe he likes his two years with you enough to give you a slight discount when everyone is bidding.
12:07
And that package isn't insane, I'm not sure SD wants to pay that much and I don't have a sense for if the market has cratered enough that you have to pay as much as we thought some teams may at the beginning of the offseason
Jeremy
12:07
How do you evaluate Yusei Kikuchi against other guys in his (likely) 55 FV bracket, like Chris Paddack, Brent Honeywell or Mitch Keller? Clearly higher ceiling and lower floor, but would that change his FV as well?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:09
Not really. There's some though that Kikuchi may have already peaked and there's some long-term durability concerns. And those other three are all essentially 2019 MLB types with a little more control for a lot less money and more upside, but their own concerns as well (Paddack/Honeywell have already had TJ). They don't feel drastically different in value, like any of them could be the clear leader with a loud 2019.
Jonathan
12:10
Is it time for Braves fans to panic about stingy ownership? They're set to open with a significantly lower payroll from a year ago, and their in arguably the most improved division of the 2019 offseason (especially if Harper, Machado or both sign within the division).
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:11
Haha you must not have read last week's chat. You can all calm down, that money will be spent, they're just being deliberate and seems like the're leaning towards seeing exactly what all these AAA/MLB level prospects are before they go make a huge move. Which, to be fair, may be the exact same thing I would do.
hans
12:12
Nate Pearson: what is his ceiling? i get that he throws hard and thats cool, but to me he seems like a huge injury risk with no track record. any new takes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:13
That's the cautious take and I think reasonably close to where we stand until we get more info. These types usually end up fitting best in relief, so we're eager to see if he can go post 15+ starts of healthy baseball with more starter traits. Stuff will play anywhere, so not like we don't think he's good, we just don't know in what role.
hans
12:13
I read some hot take that george valera has a 70 hit tool with 50 power. is that true?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
Eh I wouldn't project that right now, but he's a top 200 type with essentially no pro experience b/c that's on the table. The swing and tools aren't terribly different than Kyle Tucker, but obviously Tucker already has MLB time and Valera has played 6 pro games.
hans
12:15
can you guyss make THE BOARD more accesible? where is it
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
go to the LEADERS heading and then it's a couple lines down from there. I mean it could be more obvious in terms of like bigger font or being its own heading, but that's above my paygrade. It works great, tho! Dolinar has done a great job steadily adding features and we have more columns scheduled to be added when all 30 lists are done.
Mr. Met
12:17
In your Met's rankings you mentioned if everything came together for Shervyn Newton it would mean superstardom. What are the odds that happens? is it more than say 25%?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
Funny you mention that. We have some percentage odds based information on the prospect side that will be coming as part of #prospectsweek
I'd say it's closer to 10%, just eyeballing it
Tony Schiavone
12:18
Welcome to the greatest chat in the history of our great sport!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
love your enthusiasm
Warbiscuit
12:18
Are you gonna visit any SEC school this season for the draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Oh yeah, now than I'm in ATL there's lots of nearby school I'll probably be going to multiple times. GT, UGA, Kennesaw and Ga State are the closest. SC and Clemson aren't a bad drive, Auburn/Alabama/UAB are also in that range and Tenn/Vandy aren't bad either. I'll be in NC for the NHSI tourney and will go to Duke games at the Durham Bulls Park and will surely make at least one Florida swing and likely to to UF and maybe USF/UCF depending on matchups.
Adam
12:20
At what point does Nick Senzel’s injury issues become a serious concern for his long term outlook?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
If this season is like last season, then probably? Last year was mostly freak stuff and the first time it's been an issue, so I'm not really concerned at all right now
Noah
12:21
When is UMP coming back?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
It will be back as a companion for #prospectsweek and going forward. We needed some time off to focus on rankings and some trips and the holidays, so that was the thing that gave rather than doing lists slower
Andy
12:22
Does Rusney Castillo  have any trade value?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
Very negative, has been for years
Frank Menechino
12:22
Matt Chapman: over/under 6 fWAR in 2019?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
way under. I'd set it closer to 4.something to get 50/50 action. lots of UZR in that 6.5 season and it can be fickle
Luis Patino
12:23
Am I nothing more than a future reliever?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
We're much higher than that, put you in the middle of the top 100 late last year
Mike
12:25
Would you say that William Contreras' swing is not well optimized for power?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
Right this second it isn't, but we were told it was a slowly-building-up sort of approach, so it will be changing.
Stare into the Voit
12:25
The Orioles list didn't make me cry. Am I losing my sense of feeling? Or is there actual hope?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
There is! Some interesting guys and they will be in asset collection mode now, with some HOU guys that were pretty good at that in the past.
Danny
12:26
It might be too early for this but any buzz on 2018 IFA signings (i.e. now 17 year old is throwing harder or has better feel for hitting/pitching than when scouted a year ago)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
Don't have all the names handy, but it'll be easy to look at stuff like this when all 30 lists are done and compare current grades to amateur grades. Eduardo Garcia with MIL is one that comes to mind.
Mr. Fister
12:27
Is Malcom Nunez a legit prospect or just a guy who raked in the Domincan Summer League? Seems like a big body for a 17 year old.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
We're probably the low guys on him, sounds like early-peaking, mature body corner guy with some feel to hit. Could still be a legit guy later, but the signs aren't pointing to that right now.
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