JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/30/19

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SophieTrad

12:47

Apologies if this is a silly, well-covered question: what proportion of your prospect rankings/grades/writeups are based on info given to you by sources, as opposed to your own view of a player? I assume it varies by how easy it is to get eyes on a prospect but just in general is there a usual split?

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

It varies player to player. Sometimes a guy was an amateur that we saw 5-6 times and he hasn't played pro yet and almost every other scout on Earth has seen him less than us, so we can lean on our looks at that point and maybe just double check we didn't miss something big. For most other guys, we'll have a handful of looks over the guys full career, so it would be silly to weigh our stuff over hundreds of other games we didn't see

Sorta like the split of scouting vs stats info percentage input in a report. At Triple-A it's maybe 60% performance and in rookie ball it's like 10% performance, broadly speaking

12:49

That is to say not a hitters' Triple-A strikeout rate dictates the hit tool grade, but if scouts say they love the swing and he's always striking out at every level, we need more info to give the hit tool a grade based on the scouting info. In Rookie ball, that isn't hard to do.

Cartoons Plural

12:50

Eloy or Wander? Better peak? Better career?

Kiley McDaniel

12:50

They'll both be in our top 10, maybe both in the top 5. I'm leaning Wander Franco right now.

Midwest US

12:50

It is too gd cold outside.

Vidal Brujan

12:51

When is my ETA? Also, do you think I could end up in centerfield or will I stay on second?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

You're above at 2B and apparently could play a decent SS if asked. Given TB's inclinations, I would say 2020

Eldon

12:51

Any report on Juco pitcher Jackson Rutledge?

Kiley McDaniel

12:53

Rising, probably late 1st/comp right now. One scout said it was Nate Pearson-ish. Best Juco guy by a lot at this point. He's an Arkansas transfer to San Jacinto JC in Texas and had his first start last week. mid-90's, up to 98, flashing plus SL and CB, some chance to start.

El Zilcho

12:53

What FV would you put on Logan Gilbert if he shows he’s consistently back in the mid 90’s?

Kiley McDaniel

12:53

50 FV, maybe eventually 55 FV if he can do it and perform for a couple pro seasons.

Danny

12:54

He'll likely be on your Yankees list but what are chances Osiel Rodriguez is top 3 Yankees pitching prospect by the end of the year?

Kiley McDaniel

12:55

He's not that far from being 3rd right now, for us. But he'll be in short season, so probably like 33%?

Yanks Fan

12:56

How far does Antonio Cabello have to go to make the 50 FV tier for you guys?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

The list is obviously coming soon but he's jumped a ton and probably higher than you'd think we'd put him

Rusney Castillo

12:57

Why is my trade value very negative? Is it because I make so much money?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

Yes

Matt

12:57

Brujan's write-up seems really great, what's holding him back from being above 55 FV?

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Well 55 means we expect him to be an annual 2.5-3.0 WAR type and that's a top 10 2B. And it's expecting, so there's obvious upside for more since he hasn't gotten out of A-Ball yet. He was like 250-300th prospect overall in baseball entering the year, so that's a huge jump. The physical ability to hit for power (15-20 HR max and probably the lower end of that) is the limiting factor, but even with that, if he goes bonkers in AA this year, he's probably a 60

Using Madrigal/Urias/Albies as recent examples of this skillset

Kevin

1:01

I cannot pretend to have read you at the time, but i remember a time when Nola was drafted and traveling through the minors, as a high floor, likely 2/3 pitcher. He has reached his peak and is an ace. Is Casey Mize a similar profile in terms of journey?

Kiley McDaniel

1:01

Not super different, I think we mentioned Nola as a high end outcome for Mize at some point in the pre-draft coverage.

Big Cheese

1:02

ETA for Blue Jays list? Think they are a Top 5 system? or are they more like Top 10/Top Half?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

Next week

Sam B

1:02

I noticed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected for around 5 WAR despite having no MLB experience. What is the highest pre-season projection for a player with no MLB experience?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

And the fans are almost a full WAR lower than steamer. Don't think I've ever seen that before

Keefths

1:03

Who is Luciano dude ?

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

Marco Luciano, the top 16-year-old talent (for us) in the 2018 J2 class, Giants signed him. Hasn't played a pro game but has looked great in their recent hitting camp. More info here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-international?sort=...

babyshark

1:04

doodoodoodoo

Polar Vortex

1:04

POLAR. VORTEX.

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

looks like we're in range

Matt Damon

1:04

MATT. DAMON.