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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 10/10/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
Hello from Florida! Think I just saw my last instructional league game yesterday, have a podcast and big Victor Mesa article both going up later today, we've already started work on offseason lists and new features for THE BOARD
RS
12:15
How do you scout for useful spin rate? Trackman just provides raw spin rate, but not all 3000 RPMs are equal.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
Well you wouldn't be scouting at that point, that's data analysis. But if a curveball has a huge raw spin rate and also really big movement, then you can assume there's a good ratio of useful spin. You either need a fancy camera or Rapsodo to know useful spin and neither is really practical in game situations.
Rbrewers
12:16
No love for  Brandon Howlett on the board? He's looked great as a pro for the Red Sox so far.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
Big swing and miss issues this spring, but he may end up on there when we do the Red Sox list
Ryan
12:17
Hey Kiley, what do you think of Dbacks shortstop prospects Geraldo Perdomo and Blaze Alexander? Thank you!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
Positive buzz on both short season shortstops. Blaze has an 80 arm a decent shot to stick at SS, but I saw him get blown up by velo this spring...that said he's been hitting well both by numbers and scouts' eyes in pro ball, so he's definitely moved up since draft day
Navin
12:18
Do you have any thoughts or opinions on the Cubs moving their instructional league to January?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Clubs are redefining instructional league. Some don't have it at all, some have a lot more intersquads and classroom stuff. Player dev has changed a lot and these players already play six straight months and TrackMan fills in for the players certain coaches/execs hadn't seen, so it would be silly to just make the players play an extra 3 weeks just because you can. Getting something out of it now (you're eating up budget space, too) means different goals for certain teams, thus different execution.
tb.25
12:21
How do the Yankee pitching prospects look? Will they trade from their depths for pitchers, or wait until those guys are ready?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
If you take out Johnny Lasagna and Sheffield since they're both MLB-ready now, it's a lot of power arms with reliever risk (Medina, Abreu, Stephan) or a long ways off (R. Contreras, Osiel Rodriguez) or coming off a down year (Freicer, Sauer, Adams). There's still depth in that there's still a solid amount of names with trade value, but Clarke Schmidt (fresh off of TJ) and Deivi Garcia (smallish guy that likely isn't a 200 IP type) may be the best bets to start a meaningful amount of games for the big team at some point
Curiosity Seeker
12:25
Your list of 2019 MLB Draft prospects is very different from other websites--for example, where pitchers like Lodolo and Manoah are ranked. What are the key things you and Eric look at that might account for those differences?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Haven't seen very many other lists out at this point, so I'd caution you to take like MyBestMockDraft.com or whatever as gospel
12:28
Manoah is a big dude that showed big stuff on the Cape but needs to watch the frame and looks like a reliever. Lodolo is one of a handful of guys that we would move up now, but we'll wait for a couple fall events to occur to make an update. He threw harder in a scrimmage this week. We had him lower bc he'd been mostly 88-91, touching 92 or 93 just like in HS two years ago and that's where we'd rank that guy. If he's consistently 91-94 like he was this week, then he's in the top 30. Jason Hodges (HS LF, Illinois) is another guy that probably moves up and Michael Harris (HS LHP/RF, Georgia) would move on the list.
12:29
and for the hoops fans, Jason is the son of Craig Hodges from the MJ Bulls teams
Ryan
12:29
The more I read about and watch Alek Thomas the more I think he's a future star. He seems like a plus hit, plus defensive center fielder. What do you think of his potential? Thank you!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
He may be plus hit, plus D, but I don't think that's a future star, more like a really 3-win player, maybe an Inciarte type? I typically think of stars as perennial All-Stars, among the tops at their position, 4-6 wins per year types
Frank Lyman from Amherst
12:30
Whitley appeared to be pretty dominant yesterday.  Did you see it?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Eric did, it sounded v good
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:30
Are the Dodgers in legal trouble for something every team secretly does, or are they (one of) the only teams to go this far?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
The different thing here is the Dodgers signed a bunch of Cubans guys in one year and all the stuff that is interesting to the feds would be stuff regarding Cubans. There's a baseline level of cheating in the J2 markets, like speeding on the highway, and it's generally gone down. That said, the Cuban stuff is different given the embargo basically forces drug dealers and kidnappers to be a part of the process and the big bonuses cause agents to be a little sloppier and talking to a Cuban player before he defects could be a federal crime, depending on what you say.
12:33
So, not knowing anything specific beyond what's been reported, having the Dodgers signing all those Cubans would increase their exposure to potential criminal activity, more than a team that signs zero Cubans.
Anthony
12:34
Are there any 2019 draft guys in Massachusetts worth noting?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Not at this juncture, but guys always pop up in the spring
Nick
12:35
Would there be any notable changes to your trade-value list based on the past 3 months?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Taking a quick look at the list...
Glad I got a little ahead of the Bregman train
Ronald Acuna would move up, maybe into the top 10
12:37
Yelich and deGrom finished strong and probably move up a bit
12:38
Blake Snell may move up a bit and I'm glad I was a little ahead of the Buehler train too
Nothing too drastic, though
Basically just young players who went nuts the last few months where I was hedged a little due to lack of track record
Open up and say
12:38
Has Daniel Lynch improved his stock with his performance so far?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
Yeah, he's up a bit, but we also moved him up pretty aggressively pre-draft to #23, so we were already the high guys on him
If you guys want to keep bringing up names that we look to be right about, please continue
RunawaYEM
12:40
Freddie Freeman is stumping for Bryce Harper to come to ATL.  What are the odds of something like that happening?  1 in 10?  1 in 1000?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
Discussed this a bit on the podcast that will come out in a few hours. I think ATL will be a little more conservative with the money to spend this offseason, but they are one of the top 4-5 teams that make sense for Harper, so I'd say like 20% chance?
brad
12:41
Kiley, Yankees Offseason plans, gardy and lynn walk, trade Gray for anything, Sign Machado for 3B, sign Corbin, Trade andujar, Sheffield, Frazier and Acevdo for DeGrom.    They easily have the money for this, and it isn't a crazy fan offer for Degrom, that is legit.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Just wanted everyone to get an example of the questions I don't publish
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