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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 10/16/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
Hello from ATL! I think we're about a week away from announcing more about the project that Eric and I have been hinting at over the last few weeks...because it should be done soon.
And for those asking about the podcast project we've mentioned...that also will be disclosed in the coming weeks
Scout is eating lunch and I'm hopped up on caffeine, so let's see what you guys have for me today
Theo
12:19
Looking at The Board, I see 14 60 FV prospects. If I'm trading Kris Bryant, could I realistically expect to get someone from that group in return?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
We can tackle this in a broad way using  surplus value calculations:
12:22
and my internet is getting wonky, hold on a second
12:24
okay all fixed!
scout is the best IT puppy
12:25
so Bryant has 2 years left
at something like $40M via arbitration
projects to be worth $80-90 million broadly speaking
12:26
so something like $40-50M in surplus value, absent market forces like a lack of 3B, etc.
12:27
and that equals a 55 or 60 FV prospect: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/
so something like 20th-50th overall on the top 100
Unclear what exactly the market forces will be, if it pushes that up or down
12:28
but broadly speaking, yeah they might be able to get one of those 60s. there will be more like 20 in the offseason, but the top 10-15 prospects in baseball may be a stretch
randomdude
12:28
Obviously he was ridiculously young and played in pitcher-friendly leagues, but did Wander Franco's middling HR total this season change anything for you? I'm guessing you still expect him to get to above-average or better game-power at his peak?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
He's the age of a HS senior, is a plus runner and SS and hit 9 HR in leagues while dominating his competition where almost no other 18 year old even played this year
12:30
power always comes last and he's more of a linear swing path with big EV for his age/height/position that could be more HR-focused as he adjusts
but the best indicator of hitting bombs in MLB is hitting the ball hard and being a precociously good hitter
12:31
these things broadly applied to Vlad Jr as well
and are common for advanced, young hitters in the minors
Adam
12:31
Are there active expansion draft rules in place? Seems like they’d be very complicated when you consider how many levels there are in professional baseball?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
There were this many levels when TB/ARI had their draft. I don't remember them exactly, but it was basically a stricter version of the Rule 5, where deep orgs will lose a couple 40 FV types or slightly overpaid veterans
Adam
12:32
The Padres have had among the top farm systems in baseball the last few years but have yet to see that develop into a competitive roster at the major league level (Fernando Tatis Jr being the exception). Is this a case where the system has been overrated, the organization has failed to develop, or the ML coaching staff failing to properly utilize the talent endowed upon them?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
Haven't supplemented the talent correctly just yet. Also, the potential 3 WAR guys aren't just 3 WAR just right when they come up, though Paddack and Tatis kinda hit their projections right away
Chaise
12:33
Kiley!  It's been too long. Did you actually take a vacation?!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Yes, went to Aruba in August, finally cashing in some of those points from that period when I didn't have a life
Not Evan
12:34
Craig Edwards' original research into prospect valuation separated the prospect tiers into hitters and pitchers. In most tiers, he found significant differences in value. For instance, an FV55 hitter was worth 5.1 WAR, while an FV55 pitcher was worth 3.7 WAR. That's a 38% gap, but I'm not sure I really understand the upshot. It'd seem weird if the #32 overall prospect (Jarred Kelenic, FV55) were worth 38% more than the #31 overall (Matt Manning, FV55). Does it mean that you're 38% more reluctant to give a pitcher an FV55 grade than a hitter? Help! Thanks.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Well that's using the old BA lists and mapping their ranking to our system
12:35
so it's really saying there was a calibration issue in where pitchers were ranked in the past
and that we take this into account when we rank guys, so that the $ value is in line with the raw ranking
in reality, that's hard to perfectly calibrate, but that's (to use this word again) the broad strokes of the adjustment
Ryan
12:36
Jaylin Davis: 35+ FV at last update, but will get a look in 2020 SF outfield, and showed monster power in minors. Do you think he can be anything more than a bench bat?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
That's probably it, but even a 45 FV is a bench/platoon bat
so there's some room for growth
Jim Leyland Palmer
12:36
Which bat, at this far-out moment,  do you think would be the best fit for DET at 1-1?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
Today, I'd go to Austin Martin. We've been quietly updating our draft rankings to the point that they're absurdly deep right now at 558 player, which is basically the longest list you'll see at draft time and we have it now
12:38
we haven't "announced" the draft rankings yet since we're still adding/moving guys from college fall practice and new guys that popped up at Jupiter last week, but the 2020 list is pretty close to what we think and the reports on the top guys and risers specifically have been updated in the last few weeks
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