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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 10/2/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
Hello from ATL! Scout is asleep sunbathing on the back porch, so I'm left to field your questions.
abgb123
12:39
First day time chat this week and it’s you, blah!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
thanks for coming by, mom
Mary Anning's Monster
12:39
Is it fairly clear that Hancock, Martin, and Tork are going in the top 3 and then what happens next is not clear?  If you were in the 4-10 range and needed a bat, who would you prefer?  Hassel?  PCA?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Good chance her to plug THE BOARD, which is our personal opinions of who to take amongst minor leaguers, draft and July 2 folks. It's always being updated and the 2020 draft stuff has one more set of tweaks left before we announce "hey guys, come look at this, it's new" but there's over 500 guys on there, so you could say we're pretty well informed
Hendrick-Veen-Hassell is 6-7-8 so they're all very close
and PCA at 10 isn't far behind
12:42
I think 7/8 could be flipped but that's an industry consensus view of those four as well
some think PCA is a low first rounder, but typically up-the-middle, bat-first performers rise around draft time so I think he'll end up closer to 10 on draft day than 30
12:43
this is pretty close to what the draft rankings will be for the offseason, so feel free to jump in now ahead of the announcement
Mary Anning's Monster
12:43
Was the rise of Juan Soto unexpected?  Why is Juan Soto seemingly not as exciting or as hyped as his inferior contemporaries (e.g. Bryce Harper)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
He signed as a 10th-15th overall type guy in his July 2 class, then had a loud short-season debut, but injury-shortened, then he went full-season debut to MLB so fast that we had to scramble to get him into the top 10 overall prospects before he lost prospect eligibility. It's rare for a guy to change from good to amazing that abruptly in terms of plate appearances
Acuna did a version of it and had an injury just before the explosion into the top 10 overall. We were early on Acuna for obvious reasons, but lots of teams waited until the full season debut before they totally bought in
Jake
12:45
Nick Loftin: Keston Hiura 2.0?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
Not even close
Hiura is arguably a 6 hit/6 power bat and Loftin is a 5 bat/maybe 4 power type
Connor
12:46
What will it take for the Sox to keep Mookie and JD?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
They're making it tricky by

1) trying to get under the CBT this year so it resets (understandable)
2) one bad year after a WS title is unacceptable so DD is fired (barely understandable)
3) we have to hand out extensions to everyone the year after the WS so we can continue to compete (not really understandable)
4) we can't go over the CBT in the season where we need to resign arguably our two best players, which should've been the priority at the beginning of the handing-out-of-money process (unbelievable)
5) we so recklessly spent money to stay competitive right before what we knew would be a key time that it's now dead money and we have to eat a lot/include prospects we don't have to clear it (like, c'mon guys)

It's hard to tell from ownership quotes what the intentions of a club truly are and how much of this was blindly letting DD make decisions after the title and firing him b/c the error in the approach/moral hazard is now very obvious
12:52
The number is $208 million for 2020
12:53
and looking at the Red Sox roster resource payroll chart: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox
12:54
they're at $151M now without arb salaries
Mookie is $27-32 for this year via arb
JBJ is another $10M+
12:55
there's another $15M or so in guys they likely keep
12:56
that has you right there at the threshold and that's if JD Martinez doesn't opt out
he likely does and could cost more, but you could restructure some things to be low in 2020 to stay under and balloon later to buy some wiggle room
you've also got a couple spots to fill of FA's leaving
12:57
presumably you could dump a few deals and fix all this, but eat money in future years, trade prospects, etc. then go into the tax again next year and just have no margin for error in 2020 if guys get hurt
it's a tough tight rope to walk, but doable if they're committed to that direction. And I tend to think BOS is, since I can't imagine a full rebuild or even a non-competitive year
12:58
So it's doable, but DD left you quite a mess
12:59
and just not signing Eovaldi would've made it much more doable
DJ Kitty Tears Down the Trop
12:59
***WANDER FRANCO QUESTION***
But seriously... would Franco be the first guy called up among all the playoff teams to be on post-season roster assuming different MLB rules regarding service time, etc?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:00
He very well may be the best now player not currently in MLB, in addition to being the best long-term prospect. Doesn't mean he'd come up and be great from day one, but that's true of any guy abusing Triple-A pitching.
1:01
Vlad Jr. was slightly below expectations and still hit above league average and the odds any 4-A guy actually does that over a couple of months are pretty low, especially if they do anything more than DH/be a weak 1B
Purple Mays Haze
1:01
Will fangraphs get Hard% for the minor leagues? I believe rotowire has it.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
That's done by hand/eye by stringers in the press box. We can get it and didn't because we're dubious that its useful/accurate/predictive, but since the questions last week, we're taking another look at it to see if it passes our smell test.
Purple Mays Haze
1:02
Are there any organizations that you know of that are using machine learning to detect pitch sequencing tendencies (e.g. on a 2-1 pitch to a lefty, if the last pitch was a FB that the batter was late on, the catcher calls for a ____ 65% on the outside corner of the time" etc.)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
Yes
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