JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 10/24/18

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 10/24/18

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Kiley McDaniel

1:28

Kiley is here. Some quick plugging of things I've done lately

1:29

Podcast with
1. Jeff Passan on sign stealing
2. Eric and I about structuring a scouting dept
3. Jake Mintz of Cespedes Family BBQ on the ballad of Barbecue Yee
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-...

The even orgs most likely to win the next 5 world series: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world...

1:30

I tweeted this morning that it sounds like Doug Melvin is the favorite for the Mets job (though it obviously isn't a done deal yet):

Heard from multiple sources last night that Doug Melvin is now the clear favorite for the Mets GM job

Lastly, I just bought a house and am currently dealing with contractors. May not recommend that one, but it's what I've been doing

Tommy N.

1:30

Do you think the Reds will eventually trade Suarez with Senzel and India waiting in the background?

Kiley McDaniel

1:31

No, they'll just find spots for those guys. They're all 3B ideal fits, but all of them can play a passable 2B and obviously Senzel is playing some CF now. Too many good players is never a bad thing

Will H.

1:31

Which is more brutal weather wise; a summer day scouting in the AZL or a summer day scouting in the GCL?

Kiley McDaniel

1:32

GCL is way worse; it's all noon starts with 100% humidity and often rain in the 2nd half of the game, almost no stands/shade/elevation. AZL is night starts, often in stadiums, with no humidity

Garrett

1:32

Advice for a college sophomore wanting to get into a front office? Is it too early for an internship? Also what can I do now to help myself?

Garrett

1:32

Any tips for a soon-to-be college grad applying for these MLB QA internships?

Kiley McDaniel

1:33

These things only get more competitive, so you have to stand out, with either public research that breaks new ground, or skills like spanish or SQL that separate from a generic graduate with some ambitions but not much on a resume

Mike

1:33

With the Mesas and Sandy Gaston signed, who is the top IFA left (if any)?

Kiley McDaniel

1:34

Have referenced this in a few places, but there's basically no consensus $500K+ prospects left right now. Asia is light, there may be some hideout guys in Mexico but that is contingent on MLB opening the country pretty quickly (which is unlikely).

1:36

17-19 year old latin prospects always develop late and pop up in the middle six figures, some new Cubans may pop up, etc. but there isn't a guy right now and there isn't even a Cuban name that's widely known that teams are waiting on--that market is pretty barren, which is why most of the new ones you hear about are 16 years old with no track record. That age group is where the Cuban talent hasn't been picked over yet.

Eric Blair

1:36

What is Vlad Jr. worth in terms of other players in a very hypothetical trade?

Kiley McDaniel

1:37

I posed this question on twitter this week and the results were about what Eric/Craig Edwards/I expected. We'd lean 55% or so to Vlad and the public leans a little harder bc he's 1) famous 2) the HOU guys aren't really famous 3) Tucker was bad in a short MLB look 4) fans always lean to the better player anyway

Whose six controlled years would you rather have?

#1 overall prospect
OR
#8 and #12

All three are big league read… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

1:38

so if Vlad is a comfortable favorite over 8+12, that gives you a pretty good idea of what a "fair" trade would be

Rays

1:38

With Mckay struggling with his hitting, should the Rays continue to let McKay hit or let him pitch for now on?

Kiley McDaniel

1:39

He's still top 150-200 overall as simply a hit/power first baseman, so obviously no. To have a guy be that good as a hitter and clearly better as a pitcher is insanely rare and there's plenty of ways to deploy that, most commonly suggested as a rotation guy that DHs whenever possible like Ohtani started as

1:40

Saving a roster spot and creating two solid regulars with one spot is incredibly valuable, especially for a small market team. That's why TB is trying this with Tanner Dodson (2018 2nd rounder RHP/RF) and I would bet they try it with other guys

Hello

1:42

Peter Alonso for Paul Goldschmidt. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

Pretty good one

1:43

Goldschmidt is 31, has 1 year left at $14.5M and his last three years have been 5.0, 5.2, 5.1 WAR (with a 7.2 right behind that)

1:44

if he's open market for only one year deals, he would get like about $30M

1:45

so that's $16M in surplus value, maybe a little more since competing teams could see him as the missing piece

We'll be sharing more on this soon, but I'd say Alonso is worth about $25-30M

1:46

So, since it's only one year, the Mets say no (plus the Mets probably aren't trying to go for it in 2019). But if it was 2 years and it was a contender that was trading Alonso, it probably flips the other way

I go through this example because we will have a lot more in the coming weeks about the math behind instances such as this

Mac

1:46

If you and Eric were able to hire a 3rd person for your prospect team and locate him/her anywhere in the country/world you wish, where would it be most beneficial (excluding the obvious Dominican Republic)?

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

Not sure there's a clear answer. Obviously middle of the country like Texas would be good. Hot spots that would also help like SoCal (Eric can still get there easily) and NC/GA/FL (I live in one and can get to the other two pretty easily) don't make quite as much sense. Northeast has a lot of pro stuff for 5 months but not a whole lot else. Major city in Texas with the ability to get into the Midwest via car is probably the answer

mark

1:48

Do you think AJ Preller would prefer one gm candidate over another, under the assumption that he is trying to trade for Thor. More broadly, do you think it is easier for say him and an analytics driven guy to come together, or do you think he would be able to make a better deal with a more old school type of gm.

Kiley McDaniel

1:50

I think a more analytically-inclined GM will be more likely to want to sell/rebuild while he rebuilds the front office/processes and that GM would also have different opinions about players than AJ, so a deal would be easier (this would generally apply to Chaim Bloom). I would not assume Doug Melvin would trade arguably their best player in his first winter.

1:51

And I don't think anyone knows what Brodie would do with the big decisions, other than wear Gucci loafers

Judson Castro

1:51

You moved again?

Kiley McDaniel

1:52

Yep, bought a house in Atlanta, will be all settled in before the holidays. Shouldn't really change what sort of games I get to going forward other than a little more SEC/ACC and a little less Florida State League

Loogie

1:52

What are Peter Alonso's odds of success in the majors. Does he have AJ Reed downside?

Kiley McDaniel

1:53

Every 1B-only prospect has that risk. I'd say there's a good chance that he has 2-3 good years in his first 3-4 seasons. Not sure how well that type of player will age

And there's a chance the defense is a real problem, which could undermine his role, especially with a traditional manager/GM

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